1/1 Big A - New Year's Day
 

Contemplated Santa Anita, but think I will maintain tradition and park myself on the couch and play some Aqueduct to ring in the New Year.

Late pick4 looks quite playable. Time to cap the early races a see how the track looks...

Let's throw some winners out there to get '08 started right.

Track is Sloppy

Changes are Up - http://www.equibase.com/premium/changes/AQU-changes.asp

Here they are Nick... Decided to use Downgrade #10 in first leg to a C, upgraded #7 to a C. Cost stayed the same...Good Luck!

$1 AB
R6 - 1,4
R7 - 2,3,6
R8 - 1,5
R9 - 2,3,5,9
$48

$4 AA
R6 - 1,4
R7 - 2,6
R8 - 1,5
R9 - 2
$32

$1 A+C
R6 - 5,7,8,9,10
R7 - 2,6
R8 - 1
R9 - 2,3,5
$30

$1AC
R6 - 5,7,8,9,10
R7 - 2,6
R8 - 5
R9 - 2
$10

$1 AC
R6 - 1,4
R7 - 8
R8 - 1,5
R9 - 2
$4

$1 AC
R6 - 1,4
R7 - 2,6
R8 - 2
R9 - 2
$4

$1 AC
R6 - 1,4
R7 - 2,6
R8 - 1,5
R9 - 8,10
$16

Grand Total - $144

Wow. In race 4 the Duke of de Buque just jogged wire to wire. Garcia just hand rode all the way around. Makes me nervous about betting Mor Chances
in the fifth. Needs to be close to the pace.

Let's get em today Pat!

Roxannes Dancer should be tough with the track coming up sloppy. Small step up.. Tzipi has my interest a little.

$1 A+C
R6 - 5,7,8,9,10
R7 - 2,6
R8 - 1
R9 - 2,3,5
$30

$1AC
R6 - 5,7,8,9,10
R7 - 2,6
R8 - 5
R9 - 2
$10

[/quote]

Thank God for "C" Cover tickets...

nice call, pmac! :D

Thank God for "C" Cover tickets...[/quote]


Very Nice. I'll be cheering you on!!

Very Nice. I'll be cheering you on!![/quote]

Thanks. LONG way to go. The is the part of the show where I pray for chalk...

Crap.

Hooves liked 'em...

He was hard to like, as he just looked slow, but he did get a poor ride last time.

I used him in the Pick-4....but not with the 6th winner.

By the way, Pat, for what it's worth I disagree with you about the 9th and simply can't take a horse like the 2 at a short price from a trainer that was 1 for 76 in 2007.

I used the 8 and 9. If the 9 was coming off a month layoff, and not 13 months, no trip handicapper on the planet wouldn't be sending it in.

I considered using him (as a C), but never would have got the 6th and 7th winners on the same ticket.

That would have been hard.

I only used the first two finishers in the 7th, in a pretty small play, but I couldn't have had the 6th winner without an all. I didn't like the favorite but I think the three I used made up the last place trifecta.

One thing to keep in mind.....the track was even on Sunday, and has clearly shown to not be speed biased today, so horses like the Linda Rice in the 7th are mediocre plays. I understand trying to make horses like that if the inner is a true speedway, but contrary to popular belief that is far from regularly the case, and those horses become overbet traps on even racetracks.

To be honest, I liked two horses that were scratched, and specifically He Aint Easy, so I only really played at all for action.

I struggled a lot with the finale. Trainers numbers gave me serious pause, but ultimately decided to go with Aegean based on Beyers and good run over the inner. Was hoping to see a wire job. Made sure to cover on AB and C ticket. Did put quite a bit of emphasis on him though...

Based on how the races are currently going, I would have to say the 8 & 9 probably merit more consideration than I gave them. Layoff on the 9 was the difference between an "A" amd a "C" for me. Very well may prove wrong.

The layoff is a huge concern.

I am off the Aqueduct Speed Bias for sure...

Excellent post a few weeks back on the Christ Blog in this regard for anyone who cares to take a read. - http://cristblog.drf.com/crist/2007/...ry-on-the.html

Like the Tote action on the #9 here in finale...

I look at it this way......I don't assume biases. Obviously if we're in the middle of a sustained bias, and the weather hasn't changed, it's reasonable to expect it. However, in general, just handicap for an even track and see how every horses stacks up, strengths and weaknesses, and then make different cases depending on how the track is playing. In other words, understand horses you like that need a fair track, and horses you like only if there's a bias. Don't particularly marry yourself to any horse.

There will be plenty of speed types you can, and will, like on an even track. But there are also plenty of others, especially when you take price into account, who will be far less interesting on an even track.

Yeah, because as I said in my post that the bias was sustained.....forever.

You just can't stop Joe Parker.

He's been reinvigorated after winning " Barn of the Month " for December.

Who finished second.....John Candlin?

Wish I played the EX as it came back pretty nice $48...

Nice triple, too

Obsolutely correct and remember that he turned down $2,000,000 for a horse right after the colt broke his maiden last winter.

He said he turned down $2 million. The reports were that it was more like $750K.

Regardless, he wouldn't get claimed now for $75K.

I was just quoting what Mr. Parker said. In a world where a man pays $16,000,000 for a horse such as the Green Monkey, 2 million, or $750k seems like a bargain for Johannesburg Star. His ship came in and he decided to wave goodbye and let it sail out to sea.