You would be an outstanding horse analyst...

I listen to a local sports show everyday and they play a race at River Downs for charity, clearly going by names, does that make him analyst?

And I think that's wrong, Pgarden. That is, I agree with you. It's all about the breeding game now - where is the sportsmanship? I can understand the fear of breakdown with pedigreed animals but then.....if people are that afraid to run their horses, maybe they are in the wrong game. In Bernardini's case, though, if he's healthy, I absolutely expect him to run next year.

Hank only analyzes that little thing he zips up.
Does anyone ever bet a horse he's picked?

LOL!!

Oh ok Joel. For a minute there I was terrified that you actually considered anything she wrote to be of value. I have to tell you that last year before the Remsen and the Demoiselle she did an article detailing the chances of the horses in those two races at winning in the first dirt stakes for that generation going a mile and an eigth. In the Demoiselle she literally wrote up every horse except one and extolled the virtues of their pedigrees. The only ones whose pedigree she didn't like and that she didn't write up was Wonder Lady Anne L. Gee, guess who won? Nah, a daughter of a horse who won the Derby and Preakness won't like going two turns, nah, no way.

If pedigree doesn't matter then wqhy doesn';t every breeder just mate their mare with a s hit-box stud like Raffie's Majesty?...Why the hell do all of these dumbass people keep paying $300,000 to breed to A.P. Indy...why?....God, they must all be dumbas ses, right?....Hell, why don't we just start beeding to Quarterhorse stallions if breeding doesn't matter....how about breeding to Mr. Jess Perry?..He'll get you a horse with a lot of hindleg and speed for just $2,500!!!...Come on boys....we all know pedigree is a very important aspect of this game and to think otherwise is just fooling yourselves....Sure, things happen and freaks are born like Xtra Heat every year, but on average, better horses are produced from the better stallions or they wouldn't command the market share and support that they do.....Who wants to pay $300,000 to breed to A.P. Indy?...(Answer:) The guys who wants to get a monster like Bernardini, thats who....

Well thats one from that crop. How about the other 89 folks who paid the 300 grand? None of em are out yet.

apples to oranges?

So if we were talking weather, Cunningham would be a Farmer's Almanac and Pgardn would be a meteoroligist?

Not necessarily..some of the fillies are worth close to that as broodmares the day they are born...but, I do understnd your point...this game is a law of numbers game and it is a losing proposistion from day one.....95% of the owners in this game lose their ass everytime they make an iibvestment into this ass-baskwarsd game...its just fact....you have to breed agressive to get good results...sure, you lose more than you win becaues that is how the game is set up...BUT, if you breed your mares to Louis Quatorze every year, the chances are that you will get a s hit-pile horse every year a lot more so than the chances of you getting a Bushfire...

Its a suckers bet, and the only guys who make that bet are guys looking for lighning in a bottle and can afford to burn 300 grand doing so. I realize that mares born off that breeding are sometimes worth that much but 50% of that equation comes from what the broodmare who throws the mare is worth in the first place. WOuld the resulting mare really be worth that much different out of a good broodmare if it resulted from the mating with a 50 grand sire? Some, but not at the rate of the markup of going to the 300 grand stud.
I just don't think its nearly as important as many think it is. I see just as many nice horses coming from sires who don't stand for 6 figures as I see from those who do. Remind me of all Storm Cat's stars this year? Oh, I forgot, there aren't any. Geez you would think that for 500 grand(especially with the book of mares he gets) that we would get maybe one star from this crop.

I still don't get it. Well, I do get the part where I, as horse analyst, tell someone that they have a pretty good chance to get a nice foal if they breed to AP Indy. That I get. Seems prety obvious. $300k is a lot of money right? I also get the part about Mr Jess PErry being a bad deal, even at $2500. I suppose it all comes down to the in-between, right?

What do you do as a horse analyst?

What types of people pay for your services?

Pedigree can't show you who has heart, Lava Man would be a very good example of that. And Joel Louis Quartorze is currently performing quite nicely and I can assure you he doesnt produce ****. Here is something cut and pasted from DRf as of this week for stallions with their progenies earnings in 2006.
Storm Cat 81 43 2,452,531
Louis Quatorze 158 109 2,419,471


Joel I happen to like Louis as a stallion and under new management he is doing quite well. As a matter of fact that **** producing stallion who stands for 7500 is directly beneath the "mighty and fraudulent Storm cat" on the sire earnings list this year. Imagine that? 500 grand for Storm Cat and 7500 for Louis and they are only 33,000 dollars apart.

Lets see how good After Market can be...........seriously though, I understand your point, but the market suggests that there is a coorelation with "success" (whatever success may be) and better stallions or nobdy could justify spending that kind of cash on Storm Cat instead of just breeding to Favorite Trick.....There were over 10 Storm Cats that sold for over $1 million last year at auction in North America...maybe that is what they define as success...on the ractrack though, I understnd what you are saying....Hell, I would never spend $500K for Storm Cat because I know that half of them are crazy and half are crooked as can be and have HORRIBLE knees....but hey, he has a market and when he gets a good one they are usually REALLY good (until they breakdown) :D

Oracle, I'm no fan of Storm Cat, but it's hardly fair to compare him (he's led many sires lists) to a horse who's gotten maybe just a few good horses in his career. It's usually not a good thing when a sire's earnings are mostly due to one horse - in this case, Bushfire. Where are his other top class horses, outside of Repent? Are you saying that Louis Quatorze is a top class sire or even a very good one? If so, I agree with Joel. He's a mediocre to decent sire (who was bad enough that he got kicked out of KY) at best. One other question - if you don't care about pedigree, why have you brought up Circular Quay's sire and dam in your posts about him? You've mentioned that he should stretch out based on Thunder Gulch's accomplishments at the Classic distances. If pedigree isn't important, then why mention it at all?

What happens if Bernardini wins big this year (not saying which races) and then runs and does well next year; wouldn't we then be able to say he's good for racing (which is how this started in the first place)?

Churchill Downs Inc., and I don't choose to be an agent because i don't have the ballsack to take people's money and tell them that my investment will probably fail for them (because 95% of investments in this game are failures), so I choose not to be an agent but have had plenty of chances......as for agent-type work, I do run my father's racing operation in Louisiana and we have about 31 head right now....I have alos made purchases and given consultance to several other owners (mostly in Texas and Louisiana) but I NEVER TOOK A DIME FOR IT and that is why I hate to label it agent work....Why should I make money off of people when I know that Im probably making a decision that will fail them?...It is just not for me as a career because I have never wanted to be viewed as that dirty little car salesman....no offense, Oracle...I know that most agents are legit, it is just not a successful enough business for me to gain self satisfaction from....I'd rather try not to lose too much of my father's money than have to worry about some guy calling me up when his $15,000 yearling purchase turns out to be a maiden claimer...just not for me...

I have gotten unsolicited commission checks if any of my advice has proven to help people, but lets face it...you are going to be wrong way more than you are right in this game...it is set up like ****...it is set up from a cost standpoint for people to fail....even when you are right sometimes and pick a horse out for a modest yearling price that goes on to break his maiden by 10, they usually get hurt shortly after and you look like a moron again for picking out a fragile horse :D :D

Oracle am i reading this correctly.

Storm Cat has had 81 starters with 43 first place with $2,452,351 in earnings and Louis Quatorze has had 158 startes with 109 firs place with $2,419,417 in earnings? I am a bit confused here. Please advise.

Some of the cut and paste got lopped off, go to DRf and see for yourself but Storm cat leads Louis by 33 grand as of July 11th in earnings THIS YEAR. Thats not a lifetime stat.

Yeah I suppose people like Mark Reid who peddle "used cars" like medaglia D'oro, Peace rules, You, etc are no good. And the guy who sold baffert War Emblem must have just been lucky as well. I know the guy who bought WOnder lady feels like he got a real bargain on that used car.

The only reason Louis is within a smell of Storm Cat is because he has had twice the starters as SC has....again, the Storm Cats are not the soundess animals on earth and when you have invested $500K to breed to him, you are not going to race the foal until he is in perfect health (well, unless you are D Wayne :D )

Oralce, you arent analyzing the number here. These number are from Bloodhorse.

Louis - 163 starters - 68 winners - $2,449,859 in earnings.

This is a avg return of $15,029.80 per starter. With 17% win

Storm Cat - 95 starters - 35 winners - $2,655,268 in earnings.

This is an avg of $27,950.18 per starter. With a 36% win.

You have to look at the numbers more carefully.

But remember Mike, we are talking numbers here....Bernardini was one good one from 89 like you mentioned....how many horses that didn't pan out have you bought?...Everybody remembers the Wonder Lady Anne Ls of the world, but I would rather predicate my record on the ratio of good horses I bought to bad horses....Additionally, I find it much harder to pick out yearlings that will be successful...Picking out horses that have already displayed talent and then spending hundreds of thousands for them isn't exactly rocket science IMO....Hell, Medaglia d'Oro got like a 100 Beyer for breaking his maiden first time out for Dave Vance at Oaklawn....he showed promise and then went from an average trainer to a great trainer and even got better....I do like Reid's style though...he has made some good purchases..I'll give him that, and so have the McKathan bros....but it is FAR more harder to pick out yearlings....

For starters, I could never spend over $100K of somebody's money and hold a straight face doing so....it is just not my style.....BTW, don't take the 'used-car' thing as a slant on you guys....I simply just said that I would feel that way for some reason....most bloodstock agents don't have the greatest of reps..