You may kindly kiss my a ss in Macy's window.

It's getting real boring hearing you blow hard about what you know then FLAME at others who may not have your pedigree (really doesn't count for **** once you get in the door... you'll learn that someday, perhaps).

I really doubt you have as much pull/knowledge/insight as you say. At least, it hasn't shown up. What has shown up is that you're a 25 (or so) year old kid with money up your a ss. Big ****ing deal. Assistant marketing director at Fair Grounds or what/wherever you've worked doesn't count for a whole hell of a lot eventually. At some point, you perform or you're out.

You may know a few things, but you are far from an expert. Very far. An "Expert" in any business demonstrates his abilities unlike others like you who seems to have take your entitlement and are running with it as far as your legs will take you.

Steppenwolfer screwed you out of the Derby Tri? Well, guess what, it is a zero-sum world and many, many people hit that tri (yours truly included, thank you very much) when your horse ran out afer a (predictably) bad trip.

Flame away. It is not impressive. Neither are you.

Racing has tons of problems in attracting new people that bet. But they have got to shorten up the card a little more. I would rather see fewer races with more horses and shorter times inbetween races, than more races with short fields with a long time between races. Racing has to go market itself as a form of entertainment. Instead of a couple spending $60 for dinner and a movie, spend $60 for dinner and some racing. But people do not want to stay at the track from noon to 6pm. That is stupid. Have 8 races on a card and have 10 minutes inbetween races. That is 70 minutes of non-racing. Then you have 5 minutes for a race to be run and the results back. That is another 40 minutes. That is a total of 110 minutes. That is a reasonable time to spend at the track.

Also you cant compare racing to football or any other sport. Racing is the only sport that is year round. People only get 16-20 chances to watch a game. A person can turn on their tv almost 24 hours a day 7 days a week to see racing. You have to make racing seem like it is the place to be, or do. Saratoga, Keeneland, Oaklawn and Del Mar are popular because it is the place to be for 4-6 weeks. You only have a limited time to go to the track. This is why it is special. There is just TOO MUCH RACING today. I would love to see racing take a break. Shut it down after the Breeders Cup and then open it back up the the Saturday after the Super Bowl.

It was lite-hearted, Damascus...You also have to be able to take a few zingers to be in this industry..a thick sense of humor.....that wasn't a personal attack on SendToStud, but merely a harsh attemp at joking with him more than anything....this forum is not that bad....most of the posters are good peopel and understand the commentary that they here and tone of it without taking real offense...

Thanks Joel..

Wow!..See Damascus, you were right...I must have hit a nerve here.....I apologize, SendToStud....I really didn't think you would take it that harshly...my bad....I wasn't critizing you hard, just made a little fun of the situtation...certainly didn't mean to upset you...Actually, I half thought that you were kidding and intentually being obvious with that list...my bad, but I guarantee you that people are working long and hard at the solutions for the problems you laid out (well, maybe except the NTRA who is failking the sport but that is another issue)...Beleive me when I say that....I won't reveal my occupation on here but I can tell you that it is significantly more influential than as the Asst. Marketing Director at Fair Grounds...I haven't doen that for 2 year now, but either way - I'm sorry for hurting your fellings...It wasn't intended to be a personal attack....I responded to it in a humorous manner because I honestly thought that you meant to be somewhat sarcastic in your post..:)

Here is free advice.

The only jobs worth a **** in the sorporate world are high dollar sales jobs (sell or die) and high level officer positions (bonus eligible 25% or more of BAE). You do not seem the Sales type. That leaves you with aiming for one of those high-end management gigs.

If you ever get the chance to be up for one of theses, you will have demonstrated some modicum of ability. But the biggest factor that separates you is the big bosses' perception that you have the ability to get things done that othes in similar positions in your company do not have.

At this level we all hope you reach, you'll find that you'll be scored on the ability to persuade as well as how well you can obtain and use internal resources. Little else counts.

Sorry I had you as Asst Marketing Director as of course you were Asst Publicity Director before moving on (congrats).

How influential are you? Are you doing new things now other than managing racing information for CDI's websites? Whatever you're doing, good luck.

the best job is to own your own business. it certainly does have its headaches, but it is worth it. just start a business that doesnt need to be open 7 days a week.

WRONG. Absolutely and utterly wrong from a biological perspective. You claim to know pedigrees and you dont know the basic biology of genetics. I have seen this rife throughout the industry and it is amazing. Thank God there are some people actually doing work on throughbred genetics that know something about basic heredity and understand the incredible randomness. In 10 years, with the horse genome finished and testing to find various combinations of genetic markers that really correlate with good runners, you will be left in the dust.

Mr. Cunningham:

What is the most important organelle in muscle cells (actually fibers, a combination of fused cells) from a running/physiological perspective?

What is unique about this organelle compared to others, that makes in GENETICALLY significant?

How is the organelle passed on from generation to generation?

I think I stirred a hornet's nest when I said Bernardini would be good for the sport!

Forgive me if this sounds naive, but:

I agree that the ordinary gamblers (those who would bet on jockeys riding around a track on pogo sticks) don't care about new sires, pedigrees, etc.......but what about those folks who actually do love the sport? I think there's something wonderful about being able to follow the offspring of your favorite horses and there must be other fans who feel the same way; they may not post on message boards, but they subscribe to BloodHorse, Thoroughbred Times, etc.. just the same. These people aren't simply bettors - if they were, they wouldn't be reading magazines whose pages are filled with racing recaps and pedigree profiles. What about the fans on the internet who post about Officer doing well or Empire Maker/Mineshaft being the next great sire? What about the queries about which great racemare is going to be bred to which great sire? Why do people then get excited about first-crop sires? It's because new blood is good for the game.......it keeps it healthy and invigorated.

I understand people's fascination with the family trees. My parents where always telling me how I looked like great Aunt Esther or some other person I had never seen. Its just that in racing, horses are so frequently pulled before we get to see them run against other talented horses for fear they might lose, and thus lose some of their value in breeding. The first thing you read from the breeding farms, sired 5 diff. Grade I winners. I am just making a plead to let them keep running instead of winning a few prestigous races and then retired while they are at max. breeding value... Avoid competition that might make a horse look "mortal". Its so false and sometimes just downright flippant.

With all do respect, I probably forgot more about pedigrees than you'll ever know....this is a field that I study with high frequency....there are NO certains when it comes to pedigrees and it is hard for me to even put into words anything for certain, so maybe i shouldn't have tried, but I am still confident that trends and patterns of what I have seen work in pedigrees is as good as anybody else's opinions on this subject from what I've heard....

What the hell are you talking about? Lauren Stich doesn't even know that...come on man...we're freakin' talking about studying pedigrees and not biology....I'm no doctor or vet..I am a horse analyst....GEEZ!!

OOOHHHHHH!!, I get why you're so bitter about new stallions now.....I should have seen this agenda from a million miles away.....know wonder you hate new stallions..BUT, to say they are not important is flat wrong.....savvy horse players will argue that they are because I know...I play pedigrees all the time...that is why they are ofered in the Form as a stat and that is why you here analysts on TVG, etc...talking about horses and mentioning there family ALL THE TIME when handicapping races......now I see you r angle....you are bitter about horses retiring early and that is why you despise them when they go to stud....I see clearly now

Oh god, Pgardn's smarter than most and I am sure he's alot smarter than you, if he wanted to fill his brain with worthless information and nonsense, he would be more than adequate. It's okay in a maiden race to look and see a sire known for precocious runners or based on the breeding a certain horse may stretch, but it's all a guess until they try it and to represent it otherwise is foolish...

Pedigrees have to be the most overrated facet of the sport. And Joel did you say that even "Lauren Stich" does not know that? As if that column of hers is anything but hysterical reading when you have the blues? She overstates the obvious to the point of absurdity. WIll write a column that basically says a horse by a sprinter shouldnt go long and a horse by a stamina sire should go long. I find it a scream and have a few friends who read her column and howl with laughter, they just can't believe anyone would overstate the obvious. When it comes to science I would make Pgrdn 1-9 against any of the industry blowhards in terms of understanding the way that genetic works.

What I think would be a good idea is to have all of these people that go on and on about pedigrees to make a tape...I have a hard time getting to sleep sometimes and that would be a perfect cure for it, I would be out in about 5 minutes, maybe less...

Ask Mark Reid about pedigree and see what he says(once they have run as Stud says). Lets see he bought peace Rules(jules, lol), You(You and I),etc.
Then ask Baffert(what does he know, all hes done is win the Derby 3 times, the Preakness 4 times, a Belmont and a Travers) about pedigree. Lets see Silver Charm(anybody else by his sire ever do much?), war Emblem(Hows our emblem working out these days?) Real Quiet(17,500 at auction) etc. Of course after the fact the pedigree guys shout that if you went far enough back in any of these animals that the genes were there. Well no **** Sherlock. If you go far enough back in any pedigree after the fact you can find good genes. Point is once they step on a racetrack and show what they can do the rest of it is all bull****. English Channel cost 50 grand at auction. What the **** happened? Were all the pedigree geniuses asleep at the wheel at that sale or hungover and didn't notice his great bloodlines?
Pedigree is something that you have to look at to give you a general idea of who will like grass first time, mud first time, go short or long first time, etc. But once they have started running what the hell difference does it make? They show you what they are on the racetrack.

What in the world do horse analysts do? Really, what iservice do they provide for breeders, owners, trainers, jockeys, bettors?

Pedigree matters for first-time starters and first-time turfers and, distance changes early in a horse's career, but what else can there possibly be to it aside from who breeds to whom?

Who are the top horse analysts? Tomlinson figures look useful as far as how pedigree is somewhat likely to impact surface and distance for lightly -raced or unraced horses. Is there more to it? Much more to it?

My guess is the top paid horse analysts are the Ragozin and Thor-O-graph guys. They're the only ones I've heard of making a good buck for their analysis. But they actually produce a product.

How does a horse analyst get business? I suppose you could walk up to someone and offer to "analyze" their horse. (I'd be pretty good at that, I thnk)

How do horse analysts get paid? Fee-For-Service? Or, some other way?

Is Hank Goldberg a horse analyst?

I think I'd make a damn fine horse analyst.

What do you think?

Fine but first of all, we seem to be talking about apples and oranges here....genetics and how they scientifically work is different than understanding pedigrees and what pedigrees work and why....there is nothing scientific behind my study....my studies are all analytical and on paper...not in the physical sense...

As for Stich, I was only using her name to make a point because most people know her pretty widespread for her pedigree write-ups in the Form...I haven't read one for years either and I know that she is Captain Obvious...I was making a point more than anything....

You would be an outstanding horse analyst...

I listen to a local sports show everyday and they play a race at River Downs for charity, clearly going by names, does that make him analyst?

And I think that's wrong, Pgarden. That is, I agree with you. It's all about the breeding game now - where is the sportsmanship? I can understand the fear of breakdown with pedigreed animals but then.....if people are that afraid to run their horses, maybe they are in the wrong game. In Bernardini's case, though, if he's healthy, I absolutely expect him to run next year.

Hank only analyzes that little thing he zips up.
Does anyone ever bet a horse he's picked?

LOL!!

Oh ok Joel. For a minute there I was terrified that you actually considered anything she wrote to be of value. I have to tell you that last year before the Remsen and the Demoiselle she did an article detailing the chances of the horses in those two races at winning in the first dirt stakes for that generation going a mile and an eigth. In the Demoiselle she literally wrote up every horse except one and extolled the virtues of their pedigrees. The only ones whose pedigree she didn't like and that she didn't write up was Wonder Lady Anne L. Gee, guess who won? Nah, a daughter of a horse who won the Derby and Preakness won't like going two turns, nah, no way.

If pedigree doesn't matter then wqhy doesn';t every breeder just mate their mare with a s hit-box stud like Raffie's Majesty?...Why the hell do all of these dumbass people keep paying $300,000 to breed to A.P. Indy...why?....God, they must all be dumbas ses, right?....Hell, why don't we just start beeding to Quarterhorse stallions if breeding doesn't matter....how about breeding to Mr. Jess Perry?..He'll get you a horse with a lot of hindleg and speed for just $2,500!!!...Come on boys....we all know pedigree is a very important aspect of this game and to think otherwise is just fooling yourselves....Sure, things happen and freaks are born like Xtra Heat every year, but on average, better horses are produced from the better stallions or they wouldn't command the market share and support that they do.....Who wants to pay $300,000 to breed to A.P. Indy?...(Answer:) The guys who wants to get a monster like Bernardini, thats who....

Well thats one from that crop. How about the other 89 folks who paid the 300 grand? None of em are out yet.

apples to oranges?

So if we were talking weather, Cunningham would be a Farmer's Almanac and Pgardn would be a meteoroligist?

Not necessarily..some of the fillies are worth close to that as broodmares the day they are born...but, I do understnd your point...this game is a law of numbers game and it is a losing proposistion from day one.....95% of the owners in this game lose their ass everytime they make an iibvestment into this ass-baskwarsd game...its just fact....you have to breed agressive to get good results...sure, you lose more than you win becaues that is how the game is set up...BUT, if you breed your mares to Louis Quatorze every year, the chances are that you will get a s hit-pile horse every year a lot more so than the chances of you getting a Bushfire...

Its a suckers bet, and the only guys who make that bet are guys looking for lighning in a bottle and can afford to burn 300 grand doing so. I realize that mares born off that breeding are sometimes worth that much but 50% of that equation comes from what the broodmare who throws the mare is worth in the first place. WOuld the resulting mare really be worth that much different out of a good broodmare if it resulted from the mating with a 50 grand sire? Some, but not at the rate of the markup of going to the 300 grand stud.
I just don't think its nearly as important as many think it is. I see just as many nice horses coming from sires who don't stand for 6 figures as I see from those who do. Remind me of all Storm Cat's stars this year? Oh, I forgot, there aren't any. Geez you would think that for 500 grand(especially with the book of mares he gets) that we would get maybe one star from this crop.

I still don't get it. Well, I do get the part where I, as horse analyst, tell someone that they have a pretty good chance to get a nice foal if they breed to AP Indy. That I get. Seems prety obvious. $300k is a lot of money right? I also get the part about Mr Jess PErry being a bad deal, even at $2500. I suppose it all comes down to the in-between, right?

What do you do as a horse analyst?

What types of people pay for your services?

Pedigree can't show you who has heart, Lava Man would be a very good example of that. And Joel Louis Quartorze is currently performing quite nicely and I can assure you he doesnt produce ****. Here is something cut and pasted from DRf as of this week for stallions with their progenies earnings in 2006.
Storm Cat 81 43 2,452,531
Louis Quatorze 158 109 2,419,471


Joel I happen to like Louis as a stallion and under new management he is doing quite well. As a matter of fact that **** producing stallion who stands for 7500 is directly beneath the "mighty and fraudulent Storm cat" on the sire earnings list this year. Imagine that? 500 grand for Storm Cat and 7500 for Louis and they are only 33,000 dollars apart.

Lets see how good After Market can be...........seriously though, I understand your point, but the market suggests that there is a coorelation with "success" (whatever success may be) and better stallions or nobdy could justify spending that kind of cash on Storm Cat instead of just breeding to Favorite Trick.....There were over 10 Storm Cats that sold for over $1 million last year at auction in North America...maybe that is what they define as success...on the ractrack though, I understnd what you are saying....Hell, I would never spend $500K for Storm Cat because I know that half of them are crazy and half are crooked as can be and have HORRIBLE knees....but hey, he has a market and when he gets a good one they are usually REALLY good (until they breakdown) :D

Oracle, I'm no fan of Storm Cat, but it's hardly fair to compare him (he's led many sires lists) to a horse who's gotten maybe just a few good horses in his career. It's usually not a good thing when a sire's earnings are mostly due to one horse - in this case, Bushfire. Where are his other top class horses, outside of Repent? Are you saying that Louis Quatorze is a top class sire or even a very good one? If so, I agree with Joel. He's a mediocre to decent sire (who was bad enough that he got kicked out of KY) at best. One other question - if you don't care about pedigree, why have you brought up Circular Quay's sire and dam in your posts about him? You've mentioned that he should stretch out based on Thunder Gulch's accomplishments at the Classic distances. If pedigree isn't important, then why mention it at all?

What happens if Bernardini wins big this year (not saying which races) and then runs and does well next year; wouldn't we then be able to say he's good for racing (which is how this started in the first place)?

Churchill Downs Inc., and I don't choose to be an agent because i don't have the ballsack to take people's money and tell them that my investment will probably fail for them (because 95% of investments in this game are failures), so I choose not to be an agent but have had plenty of chances......as for agent-type work, I do run my father's racing operation in Louisiana and we have about 31 head right now....I have alos made purchases and given consultance to several other owners (mostly in Texas and Louisiana) but I NEVER TOOK A DIME FOR IT and that is why I hate to label it agent work....Why should I make money off of people when I know that Im probably making a decision that will fail them?...It is just not for me as a career because I have never wanted to be viewed as that dirty little car salesman....no offense, Oracle...I know that most agents are legit, it is just not a successful enough business for me to gain self satisfaction from....I'd rather try not to lose too much of my father's money than have to worry about some guy calling me up when his $15,000 yearling purchase turns out to be a maiden claimer...just not for me...

I have gotten unsolicited commission checks if any of my advice has proven to help people, but lets face it...you are going to be wrong way more than you are right in this game...it is set up like ****...it is set up from a cost standpoint for people to fail....even when you are right sometimes and pick a horse out for a modest yearling price that goes on to break his maiden by 10, they usually get hurt shortly after and you look like a moron again for picking out a fragile horse :D :D

Oracle am i reading this correctly.

Storm Cat has had 81 starters with 43 first place with $2,452,351 in earnings and Louis Quatorze has had 158 startes with 109 firs place with $2,419,417 in earnings? I am a bit confused here. Please advise.

Some of the cut and paste got lopped off, go to DRf and see for yourself but Storm cat leads Louis by 33 grand as of July 11th in earnings THIS YEAR. Thats not a lifetime stat.

Yeah I suppose people like Mark Reid who peddle "used cars" like medaglia D'oro, Peace rules, You, etc are no good. And the guy who sold baffert War Emblem must have just been lucky as well. I know the guy who bought WOnder lady feels like he got a real bargain on that used car.

The only reason Louis is within a smell of Storm Cat is because he has had twice the starters as SC has....again, the Storm Cats are not the soundess animals on earth and when you have invested $500K to breed to him, you are not going to race the foal until he is in perfect health (well, unless you are D Wayne :D )

Oralce, you arent analyzing the number here. These number are from Bloodhorse.

Louis - 163 starters - 68 winners - $2,449,859 in earnings.

This is a avg return of $15,029.80 per starter. With 17% win

Storm Cat - 95 starters - 35 winners - $2,655,268 in earnings.

This is an avg of $27,950.18 per starter. With a 36% win.

You have to look at the numbers more carefully.

But remember Mike, we are talking numbers here....Bernardini was one good one from 89 like you mentioned....how many horses that didn't pan out have you bought?...Everybody remembers the Wonder Lady Anne Ls of the world, but I would rather predicate my record on the ratio of good horses I bought to bad horses....Additionally, I find it much harder to pick out yearlings that will be successful...Picking out horses that have already displayed talent and then spending hundreds of thousands for them isn't exactly rocket science IMO....Hell, Medaglia d'Oro got like a 100 Beyer for breaking his maiden first time out for Dave Vance at Oaklawn....he showed promise and then went from an average trainer to a great trainer and even got better....I do like Reid's style though...he has made some good purchases..I'll give him that, and so have the McKathan bros....but it is FAR more harder to pick out yearlings....

For starters, I could never spend over $100K of somebody's money and hold a straight face doing so....it is just not my style.....BTW, don't take the 'used-car' thing as a slant on you guys....I simply just said that I would feel that way for some reason....most bloodstock agents don't have the greatest of reps..