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blackthroatedwind 09-18-2006 01:53 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin
I don't agree with that. You can take a position without overstating it.

I will take a stand in the JCGC. My stand is that I will be extremely surprised if Invasor beats Bernardini. That's not exactly a bold stand. Bernardini will probably go off as the odds-on favorite. I think Bernardini will go off at 3-5 or 4-5.
Nobody earns any credibility by being wishy-washy. Sorry but it's just too damn easy.

You want to " take a stand " in the JCGC? Fine, then tell me that Invasor won't be one-two, and tell me why, and then be right. Being a wise guy ( which obviously someone going against Invasor vs. Bernardini isn't being ) is about knowing when to go against the pack and being correct enough to earn credibility. Otherwise you're just another guy with a bad opinion.

I'm not saying this to be a jerk but to try to explain my position on what taking a stand is all about. I will take a stand....Fleet Indian will never win another race and I will be surprised if she even makes the Breeder's Cup. And, if she does, Baletto will finish ahead of her.

Rupert Pupkin 09-18-2006 01:59 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SniperSB23
His Beyers for the three races prior to the Sunshine Millions were 107/107/101 and he'd just finished second to RHT by half a length in the G1 Malibu in his previous effort. Running an 83 Beyer and losing by 14.5 lengths to Musique Toujours the next race is more than a little suspicious in light of his efforts in the JCGC and the Japan Cup Dirt.
Fair enough. But he did win when he shipped to Northern California.

I would actually hold his NY and Florida races against him more if he lost by 3-5 lengths. Then at least I could come up with a hypothesis that makes sense. I could hypotehsize that O'Neil is cheating in some way and he can't do it on the road and the horse regresses by a few lengths on the road. But the horse lost those races by 15 lengths. Even if O"Neil does have some sort of secret edge in California, it's not going to be something that improves the horse by 15 lengths. In addition, I've never heard that the horse is a really nervous horse or a bad shipper. If I heard that he was a really bad shipper and becomes a nervous wreck when he ships, then that could explain his poor perfomances. But since I've never heard that, I just think the horse was either knocked out and/or hurt at the end of the year last year. I know they said his feet were bothering him. I don't know why he ran so bad in Florida. It could have been anything. I don't know why Saint Liam ran so bad in California.

SniperSB23 09-18-2006 02:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
I will take a stand....Fleet Indian will never win another race and I will be surprised if she even makes the Breeder's Cup. And, if she does, Baletto will finish ahead of her.
I thought you were going to take a stand, not state the obvious.

blackthroatedwind 09-18-2006 02:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SniperSB23
I thought you were going to take a stand, not state the obvious.
True. I was trying to be clever.

Rupert Pupkin 09-18-2006 02:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
Nobody earns any credibility by being wishy-washy. Sorry but it's just too damn easy.

You want to " take a stand " in the JCGC? Fine, then tell me that Invasor won't be one-two, and tell me why, and then be right. Being a wise guy ( which obviously someone going against Invasor vs. Bernardini isn't being ) is about knowing when to go against the pack and being correct enough to earn credibility. Otherwise you're just another guy with a bad opinion.

I'm not saying this to be a jerk but to try to explain my position on what taking a stand is all about. I will take a stand....Fleet Indian will never win another race and I will be surprised if she even makes the Breeder's Cup. And, if she does, Baletto will finish ahead of her.
I can't say that Invasor won't finish 2nd. There may not be any other good horses in the race. I will predict that Bernardidni beats him by at least 3 lengths. I haven't been particularly impressed with any of Invasor's races.

SniperSB23 09-18-2006 02:05 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin
Fair enough. But he did win when he shipped to Northern California.

I would actually hold his NY and Florida races against him more if he lost by 3-5 lengths. Then at least I could come up with a hypothesis that makes sense. I could hypotehsize that O'Neil is cheating in some way and he can't do it on the road and the horse regresses by a few lengths on the road. But the horse lost those races by 15 lengths. Even if O"Neil does have some sort of secret edge in California, it's not going to be something that improves the horse by 15 lengths. In addition, I've never heard that the horse is a really nervous horse or a bad shipper. If I heard that he was a really bad shipper and becomes a nervous wreck when he ships, then that could explain his poor perfomances. But since I've never heard that, I just think the horse was either knocked out and/or hurt at the end of the year last year. I know they said his feet were bothering him. I don't know why he ran so bad in Florida. It could have been anything. I don't know why Saint Liam ran so bad in California.
With the exception of the three races outside of Cali he hasn't run anywhere but Del Mar, Hollywood, or Santa Anita since September of his 3yo season when he ran at Fairplex.

In all three of his races outside the state he tired badly, was stalking the pace early and just didn't have anything in the tank after that. I would think a horse tiring sooner than normal could be associated with meds.

blackthroatedwind 09-18-2006 02:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin
I can't say that Invasor won't finish 2nd. There may not be any other good horses in the race. I will predict that Bernardidni beats him by at least 3 lengths. I haven't been particularly impressed with any of Invasor's races.
You mean about what any 3:5 or 1:2 shot rates to beat a 2:1 shot by in a reasonably uncompetitive race? Stating the obvious is not taking a stand.

I actually kind of like Invasor, though obviously his races are inferior to those of Bernardini, but at least he has won a couple of battles. I think he will prove a tougher foe than you think. However, it's a hardly a race that holds any betting interest for me.

Plus, I will already be flush with cash after Fleet Indian turns back into a pumpkin earlier in the day.

Independent George 09-18-2006 02:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
I think running outside of California is a major if for this horse. I never said he hasn't run a number of terrific races ( my qualifications for using the word " great " differ significantly from many others ) though I'm not sure how many of his races I would term " incredible " , but my off-hand guess would be none.

I don't know California racing very well, so I don't really know the trainers' reputations, though I seem to remember Doug O'Neill ( he is Lava Man's trainer, right? ) getting into some trouble in the not so recent past. Perhaps that trouble is completely unrelated to Lava Man's ascent from claimer to Horse of the Year candidate, I certainly hope so, but I know that many NY cheaters don't enjoy the same success on the road that they do at home ( unless they go to that Den of Iniquity known as Delaware Park where even Wyatt Earp would be defenseless ).

I actually like Lava Man, he has danced many dances, and danced them well. He won on the turf and dirt. He's a throw back. I just think Bernardini is superior to him and his on the pace running style may work against him in a way that it hasn't in California.

I don't get this; care to back it up ???

blackthroatedwind 09-18-2006 02:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Independent George
I don't get this; care to back it up ???
If you " don't get " it then you would need it explained. If you want it backed up then you get it but just don't agree.

Which is it?

Gander 09-18-2006 02:25 PM
Fleet Rat. Indian Rat. Fleet Donkey. Indian Mule. Fleet Cheat. Indian Turtle.

Which one do you like the best Andy? You'll be grinning like a Chesire Cat when Fleet Indian stops like an old yugo. It will be a feather in your cap.

Independent George 09-18-2006 02:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
If you " don't get " it then you would need it explained. If you want it backed up then you get it but just don't agree.

Which is it?

Explain it, please.

blackthroatedwind 09-18-2006 02:37 PM
For a number of reasons I do not believe the performances of many horses at Delaware Park are a fair representation of their actual ability. One reason I believe this is I have seen MANY horses over MANY years run high speed figures at Delaware Park that they simply do not reproduce at other tracks. Another reason is that their barn area has been populated, since the implementation of slots, with a number of trainers who win with a surprisingly high percentage of their starters. These trainers also belonged to the list of trainers who always seemed very adept at improving horses very rapidly once said horses came under their care. Yet another reason is that the State of Delaware was hardly helpful in the attempts by racing to have uniform medication rules.

Gander 09-18-2006 02:39 PM
with a number of trainers who win with a surprisingly high percentage of their starters. These trainers also belonged to the list of trainers who always seemed very adept at improving horses very rapidly once said horses came under their care

How is Delaware any different than NY Andy?

blackthroatedwind 09-18-2006 02:41 PM
It seems like Delaware form does not get reproduced with anywhere close to the regularity of other tracks. I used to think it was the surface but now I believe it's the relaxed " atmosphere ".

Gander 09-18-2006 02:45 PM
Does Delaware have cases of trainers sawing off horse limbs and eye winking before races?

blackthroatedwind 09-18-2006 02:47 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gander
Does Delaware have cases of trainers sawing off horse limbs and eye winking before races?
That's not my department. I just try to analyze the data.

oracle80 09-18-2006 02:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gander
Does Delaware have cases of trainers sawing off horse limbs and eye winking before races?
Tim I've been told that the testing there is questionable, at best.

Rupert Pupkin 09-18-2006 02:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
That's not my department. I just try to analyze the data.
One of my trainers ran a horse at Delaware last year. He told me he was appalled at some of the stuff going on there. He said it's like the "old west" there, meaning that there's not much law or order and guys do whatver they want.

Gander 09-18-2006 02:50 PM
Retribution wins the feature yesterday. Oops, did somebody forget to go with him early? They should have just given that horse an 1/8th of a mile head start, would have looked just as straight.

oracle80 09-18-2006 02:56 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin
One of my trainers ran a horse at Delaware last year. He told me he was appalled at some of the stuff going on there. He said it's like the "old west" there, meaning that there's not much law or order and guys do whatver they want.
Rup I do know that an agent I respect very much won't even look at horse who run there for private purchase no matter how well they run. Doesn't trust the place, I agree.


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