freddymo |
10-05-2009 08:09 AM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cannon Shell
I'm sure he and the other soothsayers who know with absolute certainty who would have won each race had they run believe in the If A beats B and B beats C then A must be better than C theory.
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She is vastly superior to Summer Bird.. Remember she would have been 2/5 not that her odds mean anything other then the public betting perception, but you seem to like to speak of there signifiacnce. Summer Bird is a nice colt who seems to thrive in the slop. His big race on a fast track is the Belmont (where I bet him), it was hardly heart stopping. I agree that I would expect his dirt form to improve(get faster) then his just do enough Belmont. He is the horse with question marks not Rachel. You want to suggest that he is a 120 BSF horse at 10f's on a dry track? I doubt it. Rachel on the other hand could very well be such an animal.
So if A falls I guess B-Z could be greater.
Summer Bird couldn't have done to Rachel what he did in the slop to QR because his legs or heart would have exploded trying to range up and get to her. So that means someone else has to soften her up so that maybe his plodding self can catch her late. If it didn't happen in the Preakness it was going to happen in this years JCGC. Now you think Summer Bird who was trounced in the Haskell is going to find 8 lengths where in Rick Mettee's medicine chest?
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