Of the two races run last weekend I thought RA ran the superior race even with a perfect setup.

Yes Zenyatta had some extra weight, I aint a weight carrying person, so that means little to me. Yes it was a slow pace crawl and she had to come from last while losing ground, so what. I just think visually this was Zenyatta's second worse race of her career and as Drugs mentioned Shirreffs can crank them up for the big race like the best of them and this was not it.

RA is going to run fast times with setups like that, and even without great setups she is going to run fast like the preakness.

Zenyatta is never going to run all that fast unless the pace is really quick, which race has she run with a quick pace? My guess is those are her best figure races, and she probably won in a hand ride, right?

Thinking about the detention barn comment, and the "looking for a different challenge" comment from the owner, it seems to me they are going to point to the classic. Given they have other horses they shoudl run Tiago in the mile, and then run Madeo in the turf mile.

I never buy that junk from riders.

Thanks for pointing that out. I was waiting for the latest PACE FIGURES to come out so I could get my final opinion of the Preakness squared off. But thanks for pointing out the obvious -- your specialty. :rolleyes:

As for the rest of it, you can make that case for just about any prolific winner: he/she beat a lot of nothings.

Tell you this much, BEYER BOY, there isn't a horse in history that has won ALL of its starts running the same way, like Z has. Sooner or later the SETUP or a BIAS gets all of them. That it hasn't to this point in her case, once again, indicates how special she really is.

P.S. were you consulted when Beyer decided to AD HOC change those POLY figs?

I laughed, usually his obviousness comes after the fact as well.

I'm not convinced Zenyatta would have beat Rachel in the Preakness. Since we're throwing out hypotheticals, do you (fat man) think Zenyatta would have won the Preakness if Rachel had an easier pace?

Also has Zenyatta ever gone farther than 1 1/8th? Dont her owners/trainer not even want to run her farther than 1 1/8th?

And horseofcourse, I do really believe that Rachel did not handle the Pimlico track the same way she handled Churchill and Belmont. Not only did her jockey say so right after the race in which she won a classic (must have really been on his mind, I mean, how often do you hear a jockey making excuses eventhough he just WON a classic with a filly!), but just watching how easy she was moving at Belmont compared to Pimlico makes me believe the jockey. I dont really care that the race was given a 108... what does that mean anyway? I'm going off of what my eyes saw... not that that means anything either.

:tro:

I thought she was going to lose watching her on the backstretch... It was like de-ja-vu watching Bernardini @ churchill. her stride and effort just didnt look the same as when racing on different surfaces.

I am not talented enough to tell watching a winning race that a horse isn't handling a track like tector can. She's an outstanding horse. I have no clue if she's better than Zenyatta.

What I point out only seems like the obvious because of how damn convincing and brilliant and correct I am.

If I somehow found out something that no one knows .. and I told every one .. you'd all be like "well duh! - no sh!t, does he think I'm stupid?"

Chalk it up to the greatness of DrugS - it's how I roll and stuff.

:tro: :D

Yeah, usually, like...never.

Mikey Smith. Yay!!!! :p

Its my opinion that Rachel is better... just think if she continues to improve and races as a 5 year old, like what Z is now..

But I guess its impossible to prove until they race each other in a real race (not a match race - Rachel would have the obvious advantage). Shoot, when you really think about it they arent even running in the same division (not talking about age or sex).. one runs on turf alternative and one runs on dirt... makes it even harder to compare.

I'll tell ya what, even if Z doesnt race against Rachel... but if Z runs against boys in a grade 1 (hopefully on dirt) and wins, then I'll re-work my opinion (though I still may come up with the same answer).

You should really look into buying Jelly ROLL. I'm sure Wolfson would convince the connections to sell her to you.

When have I ever once brought up Jelly Roll? ... and why in God's name would anyone want to touch a horse who's been dismal throughout his life while having only two God like trainers ... they being lifetime profitable ROI Jimmy Jerkens and Magical Marty Wolfson. Two friggin wizzards.

But hey, Tagg's got Frolic's Dream turning the corner!! She ran a vastly improved 5th in a 60K stake at Monmouth Park yesterday!

She did?

That's great! Maybe he got some shoe advice.

By the way sal, check your PM. You'll love the latest news.

you do make me laugh, I mean that sincerely.

Jelly Roll Rumble, then?

If not, how do you roll?

you kept bringing up Jelly Roll Rumble as some kind of proof that his only two career trainers don't have a big edge because JRR is a bum.

Hey, maybe if Gary Sciaaca gets a hold of him he will turn it around.

That horse just stinks. Like Cannon says .. he's Ozzie Canseco or something.

Shirreffs said a race against Rachel Alexandra is a real possibility.

"Obviously that's an option, and it's something that Mr. Moss and I will discuss later on," he said. "Rachel is in her 3-year-old campaign, so she's running in 3-year-old races. There's no discussion until she doesn't run in 3-year-old races."


I hope people realize this, in theory RA could run in restricted races (through the Gazelle I believe) thus acing Zenyatta out of any chance at HOY.

Never knew you were that funny...

I would have been more impressed by Rachel Alexandra had she been up on the pace, doing the dirty work rather than watching the 2 pace setters slug it out and then pouncing, it was a good effort nevertheless, however if I was to be picky about it the race really fell into her lap, she had the trip of trips. No adversity whatsoever.

I get the feeling that the only chance this has of happening is if Monmouth or Delaware creates a race. Shirreffs doesn't want to run out of the detention barn so that would make NY unlikely. Jackson doesn't want to run on junk so that rules out a few other places. Monmouth made a race for Big Brown last year. Maybe they'll do one for this race this year.

If NYRA doesn't get it done its a travesty

If they could deliver Serling for the people ... a Rachel Alexandra VS Zenyatta match-up will be a piece of cake.

It isn't that they don't want to but they have that detention barn and Shirrefs doesn't like it. What can NYRA do about that?

Easy answer just put Scott Lake in charge of security for the night.. BTW GMBOBS next horse will be "Schultz"

he says he has a problem with the detention barn? Is he still bitter about After Market losing to Trippi's Storm or something?

Shirreffs has a flat bet profit with all of his starters to race since 1995 - a total of over 1,650 starters.

People think of Pletcher as some great trainer ... he's never even once flirted with showing a flat bet profit for a single year in any one of the last 12 years. There are guys out there with big names .. though not quite as big as Pletcher's .. who are near locks to flirt with them every year, and sometimes string together 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 profitable years in a row.

Those not out to expose Wolfson (or Dutrow) every chance they get are in the minority in not considering Pletcher a great trainer. Great cheat, yes; great trainer, now. I mean, his stuff was so strong that his horses not only survived those Johnny V WIDE trip specials but thrived under them. Now, that's potent ****.

Sign of the Apocalypse:

Jelly Roll Rumble being mentioned in the same thread as Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta


:wf

they are closed though after Saratoga?

Pletcher had his share of suspicious streaks when his barn consisting of the choiciest of homebreds, most expensive of yearlings in this country, and most athletic of 2yo sale horses out there - would jump up and get red hot.

Mostly in the winter at Gulfstream - though also during the first half of a Saratoga meet or three.

He had his Mepivacaine moment - and pulled off a hat trick with Freedom's Daughter, Warners, and Left Bank once .. a trio of big moveups in a short period who all took a dirt nap shortly after.

However, Pletcher is a poster boy for hay, oats, and water from a numbers standpoint. Just because his machine comes out smoking at the start of every new year going into the major 2yo sales ... dies off till late July ... and sometimes stages a summer rally into the Spa Select yearling sale and Keeneland's Sept sale ... before dying again there after ... that's more about being streaky than year long magic like you get from some of the other guys.

I don't know though ... maybe Pletcher just gets his shoes right and cleans the teeth real nice at certain key points on the calender.

Pletcher has started almost a thousand horses at Belmont Park since the start of 2004 .. his ROI is a laughable $1.39 and if you eliminate the early season 2yo dashes less than 6 furlongs where he's over 30% (25-for-82) - he's even worse. He becomes a joke.

For those that thought maybe they would meet up this summer:

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...kely-before-bc


As owners, we plan for the Breeders’ Cup,” continued Moss. “That is where championships are supposed to be resolved. My brain is fighting my heart on this, because I’d like to give Zenyatta every chance to remove any doubts about her place in history, and Rachel Alexandra would be a challenge. She’s an amazing talent. We’d like to meet her, but we don’t want to swerve out of our program, because we still have the Breeders’ Cup foremost in our sights.

“So while we remain open, right now we’re planning to go about our business, which is to go to Del Mar for the Clement Hirsch (gr. I, Aug. 9). We may run against the boys at some point, and we’re open to meeting Rachel Alexandra perhaps after the Breeders’ Cup.”

Moss said it was unlikely that Zenyatta would remain in training for a campaign as a 6-year-old next year.

With Zenyatta winning her 11th race without a defeat in the Vanity Handicap (gr. I) June 27 at Hollywood and Rachel Alexandra taking the Mother Goose (gr. I) with consummate ease the same day at Belmont Park, the clamor to see the two distaffers meet is growing stronger by the day. Moss said if the Breeders’ Cup was held in another location this year, he would take Zenyatta on the road to acclimate her to those surroundings.

But he shot down the notion of going to Saratoga for the Go For Wand (gr. I, Aug. 2) or the Personal Ensign (gr. I, Aug. 30), or to Belmont Park for the Oct. 3 Beldame (Oct. 3).

“Every venue has its idiosyncrasies that are risky,” noted Moss. “We had a very bad experience with Giacomo going to the detention barn at Belmont, which threw him out of his game for the Belmont Stakes (gr. I). He went nuts (finishing seventh, beaten nearly 18 lengths). At Saratoga, you have the detention barn, plus tight turns that would compromise Zenyatta given her running style of coming wide from behind.

In the previous 24 months, Todd has won with only 4 2YO firsters in dirt sprints at all NYRA tracks.

The detention barn threw Giacomo off his game for the Belmont Stakes? That could be as laughable of a quote as I have ever seen. More like faster and better horses threw Giacomo off his game for the Belmont Stakes. Moss is in la-la land if he thought it would have mattered if Giacomo was in the Detention Barn or not that year for the Belmont Stakes against Afleet Alex. But they can think and believe all they want.

Yeah - ever since they did away with the Keeneland July Select sale back in 2003 - he doesn't seem to care as much about having as strong of a showing at Belmont spring/summer leading into that super important sale.

He can at least take pride in knowing that he got a classic placing with the nations highest priced yearling in Dunkirk .. and he got big debut wins out of both Munnings and Mr Mistoffalees .. who were the 2nd and 3rd highest priced horses out FT Calder behind only Desert Party.

It's too bad he didn't have as much luck from the super expensive non big ticket items.

I don't have the dimensions but I would doubt that SAR has tighter turns than HOL or SA or DMR or is less conducive to closers than these other tracks. I wouldn't doubt, however, that NYRA would mess with the track to ensure fast times. And that a speed bias would be part of the package. Don't blame him one bit. I'd sit in CALI and take my chances against the EUROS in the Classic. POLY is FAIR, doctored DIRT ISN'T.

Giacomo was moving like a winner after 9.5 furlongs and stopped like he got shot with a bebe gun at the top of the stretch.

I doubt the detention barn had anything to do with it - but something obviously went badly wrong with him inside the quarter pole. With a grinder - You don't look like your loaded and under a hold while passing the leader on the far turn ... only to have claiming and allowance horses you went by beat you home.

Did this incident happen with Giacomo in the last couple of days or did he know it before he went off spouting about how he just may ship to NY? He had no intention of shipping. They said so earlier when they said that it's too late in the year to ship since the BC is at their home. So why did he even mention shipping the other day? Then to come back with a lame excuse like the track? Is he really serious? Does he think we are that stupid? He runs at 9f Hollywood Park......and at 8f Santa Anita....but Saratoga is too small? Ok, then go to Belmont. Surely those turns aren't too tight.

By the old (conventional?) speed charts, Zenyatta would have gotten about 100.

Synthetics have far more biases than dirt does, and they are many times induced by human maintenance decisions.

Sure. This is why all those DIRT players that had gotten so comfortable playing their speed biases over the years are up in arms over the switch to POLY. For evidence, read any number of threads over at that other forum, and this one as well. What's interesting is that they all swear that the reason they can't win is that POLY has all these 'biases'. Now, that's ironic.

I see it as just about the fairest surface out there -- fairer even than turf.

DIRT is old news. The unfairness of the dirt speed bias needs to end. The present meet at BEL, with all those off the turf races, is a perfect example of how useless DIRT is. Compare this to WO or AP presently: when it rains, they just run on the POLY and hardly anybody notices.

At least on turf, the conditions aren't manipulated by the maintenance crew. It is much easier to manipulate rubber than it is dirt. I don't mind synthetics as a bettor, don't really like them as a fan.

As for the Zenyatta debate, she has raced with a surface and/or pace bias towards her style in most starts. I don't think her dirt win was anything special, and if she faces Rachel on dirt, she will lose.