I'd go a step further actually. I think at anything less than 2-1 he's a bet-against. Hope to see you out there Andrew.

Champs Elysses

The great Buckpasser was beaten in his only turf try.

The excitement mounts for a great race. Affirmed Success won his first on turf I recall, a few years ago. Curlin's pedigree doesn't scream turf but I wouldn't bet against him.

I was hoping to get the chance..........

Hope it's fun for you guys.

Umm. . . he finished 6th last weekend at Monmouth.

Again, Einstein would have looked great being entered here. A real shame he won't get Curlin on his preferred surface and distance.

don't they have the same owners/ interests? and the same licensing issues?-

Midnight Cry Stables owns all of Einstein and 20% of Curlin.

Einstein, I believe, is being pointed toward the Arlington Million

once again beaten as the fav.

this horse is the most over rated horse ive seen in quite a while

yup - it's all because of his family.

The whole plan may go up in smoke by the end of the weekend, but this path by the Curlin team is certainly one of the most interesting and ambitious things I've seen in horse racing in many years. I think the Arc is a longshot, but it is much more interesting than watching Curlin whip the subpar handicap division over here.

Thanks that's interesting, never thought of that.

http://www.nyra.com/belmont/stories/Jul102008.shtml

This is what Asmussen said regarding the Man O' War this weekend and Curling trying turf for the first time.

"I think that is the question we want answered this weekend-whether Curlin is of the caliber to be considered for the Arc on the turf. Two previous Breeders Cup Turf winners should definitely give us that measure."


WTF is he smoking? Does he think if he beats BTN and Red Rocks that he can be competive in the Arc? That's laughable at best.

BTN = Nolan Ryan

Curlin = Robin Ventura

what Gr1 caliber turf horses has Assmussen trained? maybe there are plenty that I don't remember, but I really can't think of any.

......i think he knows ummm maybe a tad more than you al;)

funny thing is he wont beat red rocks

red rocks?? come on.......he laughs at that horse.

He'd have to beat Dancing Forever, off a 5th perfect inside trip in a row, to be considered ARC material.:rolleyes:

He might...MIGHT lay over this field on Sunday...and even if he does, I still think it gives no indication whatsoever if he is ready for the Arc. Completely different ballgame on that side of the pond.

Just like with most of the other juice guys, his magic doesn't work as well on grass, where horses tire less easily.

yeah, its just makes the race a WHOLE lot more interesting. just think of his legacy if he did win.......

It will be a very exciting race to watch. The fan part of me will root for him, the handicapper part of me who is struggling to be less amateurish will bet against him. I don't think he will be able to get it done. But while I appreciate the efforts by the connections, I worry about what a bad defeat will do to his confidence and ability moving forward where-ever Assman and his babe Maggi go. I assume they are inseparable now. I just hope they do the best for the horse. He deserves it, but I don't trust Assmussan or Jackson.

Being a well bred son of Hasili anything less than very good would be considered a failure.

The one thing about him that he has going for him is he's by a good turf sire Smart Strike, to me this is an experiment. To wager on him as a experiment would be a waste of time. However I'm very curious as a fan to see how he does, nothing about this horse would surprise me though.

ateam was the first of people i know to get the smart strike thing ,way back:rolleyes:

It was my only handicapping angle at the time.

Some very smart people would disagree with that.

I never said that Asmussen and Blasi were stupid.

I'm all ears if there's a legitimate explanation as to why Asmussen, Dutrow, Contessa, etc. are consistently much less effective on the grass.

I never said you said that - at all. . .

Asmussen's 17% on turf and 23% overall for the year. . . It's not like he's incapable of training a turf horse - he's probably getting a lot more dirt/speed type horses than someone like Mott or Clement and he's probably just a better dirt trainer. If you gave him a good turf horse, though, I'm sure he'd be capable of training it.

Contessa - well that's easy - first of all he's not a very good trainer - but. . . when does he have most of his success? Aqueduct Inner when there's no turf and the competition level is much lower. . . Of course he's not going to out-train Mott, Clement, etc. on turf at Belmont and Saratoga. He's a 9% turf trainer and right now he's 7% at Belmont with all starters - which is a much more telling stat than comparing his 15% for the year vs. 9% turf.

Dutrow - Whether he's juicing or not - I just think he's a very good trainer. His numbers are a little lower on turf - but he's another guy who deals with a lot of claiming types. But, he's also proven that he can train turf horses - Kip Deville. Interesting stats: At Saratoga from '05-'07: Sprints: 28% with a $2.28 ROI - Routes: 22% with a $1.38 ROI. Turf Sprints: 25% with a $2.61 ROI. My guess would be that he's not great with turf routers but I don't have that stat.

What about Frankel? He's supposed to be a "super trainer" but he wins at a slightly higher clip on turf - 19% turf but 18% overall.

I don't follow them closely but don't guys like Mullins, Lake, Catalano, and Amoss also do well on turf and move horses up on it?

The whole "juice doesn't turf" philosophy is completely obsolete at this point.

All very good points. The numbers are less disparate than I thought. I also am not saying that juicers can't train turf horses. However, I still feel like juice would generally be more effective with dirt horses. There's a reason why guys like Dutrow and Contessa are the ones consistently employed by those in the cheap claim game and not those with turf horses.

hmmm

Great call Matt. You have been on Red Rocks all week. He absolutely got the perfect set up he needed and took advantage.

Good call Hooves.

He did get a setup.
But the rest of the field did not exactly encounter
a mess after those two ran off.

Curlin had his chance.
I would like to see another go on grass though
where he actually has a chance of losing.
I wonder where this sets him up BC wise running
on the man made stuff...

nice one Matt for keeping the faith....

i was with you last time he ran this well..lol

So was the race exciting to watch? I haven't watched it yet.

;)
Twice is a charm Kevin