KEENELAND

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 House of Sole 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #11 Street Song 20-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Meshell 9-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Bridaria 6-1 WON ($21.80)
Super Add: #7 Elusive Fate 8-1 4th

8th: 163rd Phoenix (G3), 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Hard to take favorites Runhappy & Work All Week at short prices off huge efforts. Before the even effort in the King’s Bishop, Holy Boss ran a pair as good as the top 2. Return to those wins and has right style..

Most Likely: #4 Holy Boss 4-1 4th
Next Best: #12 Work All Week 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #8 Alsvid 15-1 7th
Exotics Use: #1 Runhappy 9-5 WON ($4.80)
Super Add: #3 Barbados 15-1 2nd

9th: 64th Alcibiades (G1), 2yo-F, 8.5f (DD)

Most Likely: #11 Just Wicked 3-1 6th
Best Value: #2 Marquee Miss 15-1 7th
Next Best: #9 Dothraki Queen 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Lookout Sister 6-1 10th
Super Add: #1 Gomo 3-1 WON ($12.60)

10th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 6f (Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #10 Touchdown 6-1 9th
Next Best: #7 Oh Newman 8-1 8th
Best Value: #9 Nyoman 20-1 7th
Exotics Use: #4 Medal of Courage 5-1 2nd
Hi-5 Play: #5 Sound of Freedom 7-2 3rd

P4 Grid:

7: 3-11 (A), 4-5-7-10 (B), 2 (C)
8: 4 (A), 12 (B), 1-3-7-8-9 (C)
9: 11 (A), 2-9 (B), 1-3-8 (C)
10: 7-10 (A), 4-9 (B), 5-8-11-12 (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x2x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

SANTA ANITA

POST-SCRATCHES

3rd: CLM, 3+, 7f (P6, P3, DD)

There is scant speed here. Celebrity Status can wire. Out POatience turns back from Los Al mile but can’t lose touch with leaders. Apollo Ten lurking back with Carava and back at SA..

Most Likely: #7 Celebrity Staus 5-2 6th
Next Best: #1 Out of Patience 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #4 Apollo Ten 10-1 4th
Exotics Use: #3 Market Notes 4-1 5th

4th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Tulira one of the viable single options in sequence..

Most Likely: #1 Tulira Castle 8-5 WON ($3.40)
Best Value: #6 Warren’s Nicholas 8-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Life Is a Joy 6-1 5th
Exotics Use: #5 Broadway Nika 3-1 6th

5th: MSW, 3+, 9f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Guillot and Moreno contracting operation and this Smart Strike homebred might lift spirits considerably. Last (first turf) was best yet and this looks like breakthrough spot with the added distance..

Best Value: #1 Boone Docks 4-1 WON ($7.60)
Next Best: #6 Broken Up 3-1 7th
Exotics Use: #7 Big Discovery 5-2 3rd
Super Add: #2 Paythebank 6-1 5th

6th: MSW, 2yo-F, 1m (P3, DD)

Bejarano sticks with D’amato stablemate (and deserving fave) Bellamentary, but don’t exclude Blessherheart (12-1) who may move up considerably coming out of the race that produced Where’s the D. Likewise, Baffert intriguing with mid-priced Structure and Escapee (6-1 each)..

Most Likely: #7 Bellamentary 5-2 WON ($3.40)
Best Value: #2 Blessherheart 12-1 9th
Next Best: #6 Structure 6-1 5th
Exotics Use: #9 Escapee 6-1 6th

7th: OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 6.5f-T (DD)

Very strong feature with 5x winner Thundering Gale the sole participant running for the tag. Though she’s not tried the downhill course, she has the profile of the type that succeeds on it. 1-5-9-10 have smaller win potential and are the exotics candidates.

Most Likely: #7 THUNDERING GALE 7-2 8th
Best Value: #9 Queenofthepalace 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Lost Bus 5-1 7th
Exotics Use: #5 Madam Aamoura 12-1 9th
Super Add: #10 Glory 4-1 WON ($6.20)

8th: OC/S-ALW, 2yo-F, 5.5f (Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #7 Sharp Holiday 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #9 Aiming Straight 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Dragon Flower 3-1 WON ($6.80)
Exotics Use: #3 Public House 5-1 5th
Hi-5 Play: #10 Pretty Enuff 12-1 –

P6 Grid:

3: 1-7 (A), 3-4 (B), 2-5 (C)
4: 1 (A), – (B), 4-6 (C)
5: 1-6 (A), 2-7 (B), 3-4-5-8 (C)
6: 7 (A), 2 (B), 6-9 (C)
7: 7 (A), 9 (B), 1-5-10 (C)
8: 7 (A), – (B), 3-4-9 (C)

Simple: 4x1x4x2x2x1 = 64 x $2 = $128

P4 Grid:

5: 1-6 (A), 2-7-8 (B), 3-4-5 (C)
6: 2-7 (A), – (B), 6-9 (C)
7: 7 (A), 1-5-9-10 (B), – (C)
8: 7 (A), 4-9 (B), 3-10 (C)

Simple: 5x2x5x3 = 150 x $.50 = $75

$0.50 Pick-4 (1/7,11,12/10/4) Paid $62.15

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: 77th Beldame (G1), F&M-3+, 9f (P3, DD)

Reverting back to the one turn 9f changes things up for these girls and Wedding Toast has been particularly tough at Belmont and will take some beating. I’d like to get House Rules (10-1) in to the mix who runs well fresh and can grab major share just stalking and closing in typical manner. Haven’t heard it brought up, but Curalina was flattered by I’m a Chatterbox last week in the Cotillion and should be more effective back on the strip where she rallied to annex the Acorn..

Most Likely: #2 Wedding Toast 6-5 WON ($3.30)
Best Value: #6 House Rules 10-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Curalina 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Catch My Drift 5-1 3rd

6th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P6, P3, DD)

$24k P6 C/O starts here..

Hard to get past the top players here..

Most Likely: #7 Neck of the Moon 3-1 WON ($5.50)
Next Best: #5 Morning Star 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #10 Orient Harbor 5-1 4th
Exotics Use: #9 Robe 4-1 7th

7th: 22nd Gallant Bloom (G2), F&M-3+, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD)

As will be the case in the Vosburgh, a sprint without too many authentic ‘all out’ speed. Will Cornelio Velasquez — hardly the aggressive type — challenge La Verdad from the outset with Room for Me? Feels unlikely, leaving group at mercy of Jose Ortiz and the Linda Rice fave who is 7/6-1-0 at Belmont. I again want to try and get Jimmy Jerkens in the picture with a price, this time looking to Classic Point (12-1) who stayed at Belmont all summer aiming for this..

Most Likely: #2 La Verdad 4-5 WON ($3.10)
Best Value: #6 Classic Point 12-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Room for Me 6-1 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Willet 20-1 6th

8th: 37th Pilgrim (G3), 2yo, 8.5f-IT (G/S, P3, DD)

Maniacally difficult group to separate as virtually any of these that look more obscure could improve enough to move up. Cover as many as you can afford..

Best Value: #3 Pagan 20-1 8th
Next Best: #1 Ray’s The Bar 6-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Highland Sky 10-1 4th
Super Add: #6 Eidmilaad 3-1 9th

9th: 76th Vosburgh (G1), 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Rock Fall looks unbeatable here, but what to do after that? Stallwalkin’ Dude (12-1) has been remarkably consistent and never off the board at BEL; Weekend Hideaway (20-1) gave indications all summer that he was coming into form; Jose Garoffalo has smartly returned Wildcat Red (15-1) to his most effective role as a sprinter..

Most Likely: #7 Rock Fall 2-5 WON ($2.80)
Best Value: #3 Weekend Hideaway 20-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Stallwalkin’ Dude 12-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Wildcat Red 15-1 6th

10th: 39th Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (G1), 3+, 12f-T (DD)

Most Likely: #1 Red Rifle 5-2 4th
Next Best: #4 Twilight Eclipse 5-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Big Blue Kitten 2-1 WON ($7.20)
Super Add: #5 Slumber 7-2 2nd

P4 Grid:

7: 2 (A), 3-6 (B), 1-4-5-7 (C)
8: 1-2-3-6 (A), 4-5-7-8-9-10 (B), – (C)
9: 7 (A), – (B), – (C)
10: 1-4 (A), 3-5-7 (B), 2-6 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x10x1x5 = 150 x .50 = $75
Full (A/B/C): $77

$0.50 Pick-4 (2/5/7/3) Paid $80.62

11th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 10f-IT

Rallying types Grey Wizard (developing) & Request (win shy) both just missed in glacial 11f affair upstate 8/29 and should get a better pace to chase here. Rather than choose between the group that comes out of the 8/23 Spa logjam (3-11-12), reaching for East Bay Lodge (20-1) who was a different animal upstate in pair of sparklers versus own kind. This is open company and all, but he showed tactical ability in Saratoga and can impact this at a big, big price saving ground all the way. Similarly, NY-bred Bullheaded Boy was making steady gains as a turf horse before trying the logical opportunity in the Albany. Back to lawn here and repeat of race before heading north can get the money..

Most Likely: #8 Grey Wizard 4-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Request 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #1 East Bay Lodge 20-1 9th
Exotics Use: #9 Bullheaded Boy 15-1 6th

P6 Grid:

6: 5-7 (A), 9-10 (B), 2 (C)
7: 2 (A), – (B), 3-6 (C)
8: 1-3 (A), 2-6-7-8 (B), 4-5-9-10 (C)
9: 7 (A), – (B), – (C)
10: 1-4 (A), 3-5 (B), 2-6-7 (C)
11: 8 (A), – (B), 1-2-9 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x1x6x1x4x1 = 96 x $2 = $192
Full (A/B/C): $304

CHURCHILL DOWNS

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: MSW, 2yo, 7f (P5, P32, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Stout’cannon 7-2: Half to Kantharos should debut running.. 8th
Best Value: #5 Uncle James 6-1: Talented family; Matthews adept with FTS.. 3rd
Next Best: #1 Forevamo 5-2: Half to Musical Romance exits solid SAR bow.. 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Tom’s Ready 2-1 Aggressively spotted in Hopeful; Adds blinks.. WON ($6.80)

SANTA ANITA

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: 4th FrontRunner (G1), 2yo, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Nyquist 6-5 WON ($3.00)
Best Value: #6 Rare Candy 15-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Blameitonthelaw 5-1 5th
Exotics Use: #8 Mt Veeder 6-1 6th

8th: 4th Chandelier (G1), 2yo-F, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Pretty N Cool expected to SCR for Alcibiades at KEE..

Most Likely: #5 Songbird 3-5 WON ($2.40)
Next Best: #7 Land Over Sea 9-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Jade Princess 9-2 5th
Super Add: #2 Halo Darlin 12-1 6th

9th: 4th Rodeo Drive (G1), F&M-3+, 10f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Hard Not to Like 3-1 8th
Next Best: #6 Elektrum 5-1 2nd
Best Value: #1 Star Act 15-1 7th
Exotics Use: #10 Stormy Lucy 20-1 3rd

10th: 4th Awesome Again (G1), 3+, 9f (DD)

Last call for Bayern and may be much happier in Arcadia than he was in La Jolla. Certainly gets pace edge. As suggested by Jay Privman on ATR, Smooth Roller the new fresh face and has speed to stay in contact if Bayern falters..

Best Value: #7 Smooth Roller 6-1 WON ($13.00)
Next Best: #8 Bayern 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Imperative 6-1 4th
Super Add: #5 Hoppertunity 3-1 2nd

11th: MSW, 2yo, 1m-T (Super Hi-5)

Best Value: #10 Pacific Prince 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #9 Canada 7-2 7th
Exotics Use: #1 Recalibrating 4-1 DNF-Pulled Up
Super Add: #8 Osceola Pond 9-2 2nd
Hi-5 Play: #3 Coach Q 6-1 5th

P4 Grid:

8: 5 (A), – (B), 2-7-8 (C)
9: 8 (A), 1-6 (B), 3-9-10-11 (C)
10: 6-7-8 (A), 1-2-3-4-5 (B), – (C)
11: 9-10 (A), 1-3-6-8 (B), 2-5 (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x3x8x6 = 144 x $.50 = $72
Full (A/B/C): $77

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: OC/N3X, 3+, 7f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Mr. Online 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #5 Mutin 6-1 5th
Next Best: #6 Dowse’s Beach 7-2 2nd

7th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Myfourchix 9-5 WON ($5.70)
Next Best: #3 My Super Nova 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #6 Silver Silence 15-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Lady Daphne 6-1 7th

8th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 9f-IT (DD)

Most Likely: #5 Jc’s Shooting Star 5-2 WON ($5.00)
Next Best: #4 Smiling Sundae 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #7 Serious Happiness 20-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Swift Taylor 10-1 5th

9th: NY-MCLM/$40k, 3+, 7f-T

Most Likely: #6 Tino 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #13 Adirondack Posse 8-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Vischer Ferry 7-2 6th
Exotics Use: #9 Lotza Heat 8-1 WON ($19.00)

P4 Grid:

6: 2-5 (A), 6 (B), 3-8-9 (C)
7: 5 (A), 3-6 (B), 1-2-4-7 (C)
8: 4-5 (A), 2-7 (B), 3-8 (C)
9: 6 (A), 7-9-13 (B), 8-11-12 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x3x3x5 = 144 x .50 = $72
Full (A/B/C): $64 (With $1 All A’s Play)

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: NY-MSW, 2yo, 1m-T (P6, P3, DD)

$214k Triple P6 C/O starts here..

Sequence book-ended by divisions of challenging state bred juvy turf routes that balance first timers with experienced runners that may be OK..

Best Value: #6 Ben’s Miracle 8-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Ro Bear 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Two Down One to Go 3-1 11th
Super Add: #10 Fakeittilumakeit 20-1 10th

6th: CLM, 3+, 6.5f (G/S, P3, DD)

Brutally tough, well-matched group. Pace looks moderate but could heat up if Arroyo (Sir Bond) and Trujillo (Bond Vigilante) choose to hustle early against whichever entrymate Gargan deigns..

Best Value: #5 Mordi’s Miracle 6-1 7th
Next Best: #8 Sir Bond 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #9 Souper Knight 5-1 8th
Super Add: #7 Bond Vigilante 8-1 5th

7th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 6f-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Decent 5-1 3rd
Best Value: #9 Liberal Spin 12-1 7th
Next Best: #5 Run for Logistics 5-1 WON ($8.00)
Exotics Use: #8 Speeding Comet 10-1 2nd

8th: 28th Noble Damsel (G3), F&M-3+, 1m-T (P3, DD)

Best Value: #2 Mabre Rose 5-1 6th
Next Best: #1 Coffee Clique 2-1 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Crowley’s Law 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #8 Lady Lara 4-1 2nd

9th: OC/N2X, 3+, 10f-IT (DD)

Most Likely: #5 Planetaire 5-1 11th
Best Value: #7 Belisarius 12-1 7th
Next Best: #1 Jay Gatsby 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Umgiyo 3-1 9th

10th: NY-MSW, 2yo, 1m-T

Best Value: #9 Stubbs 8-1 7th
Next Best: #8 Converge 3-1 WON ($7.90)
Exotics Use: #10 Yummy Bear 6-1 6th
Super Add: #11 Sax Change 4-1 4th

P6 Grid:

5: 2-6 (A), 4 (B), 9-10-11 (C)
6: 5-8 (A), 7-9 (B), 1-2 (C)
7: 3 (A), 9 (B), 5 (C)
8: 2 (A), 1 (B), 7-8 (C)
9: 5 (A), – (B), 1-3-7 (C)
10: 8-9 (A), – (B), 10-11 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x2x2x1x2 = 96 x $2 = $192

P4 Grid:

7: 3-5-9 (A), 6-8-10 (B), 1-4-11 (C)
8: 1-2 (A), 7-8 (B), – (C)
9: 5 (A), 7 (B), 1-3-11 (C)
10: 8-9 (A), 10-11 (B), 5-7 (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x4x2x4 = 192 x .50 = $96

PHILADELPHIA PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: 1st Bayern, 3+, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #7 Encryption 10-1 WON ($9.80)
Next Best: #1 Street Babe 3-1 7th
Exotics Use: #2 Freestyler 2-1 4th
Super Add: #8 Classic Giacnroll 6-1 2nd

8th: 25th Gallant Bob (G3), 3yo, 6f (P3)

Most Likely: #3 Limousine Liberal 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #6 Hebbronville 5-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Trouble Kid 5-1 WON ($28.40)
Exotics Use: #5 Catalina Red 6-1 7th

9th: 46th Cotillion (G1), 3yo-F, 8.5f (P3)

Most Likely: #8 I’m a Chatterbox 3-1 WON ($6.20)
Best Value: #7 Peace and War 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #10 Eskenformoney 6-1 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Stroke Play 20-1 6th

10th: 36th Pennsylvania Derby (G2), 3yo, 9f (DD)

Like unlucky Chatterbox in the Cotillion, this sure feels like a race that Frosted has a right to win. Have to be concerned about Gimme Da Lute having to SCR as it leaves Mr. Z on an easy lead where he’s tough and dangerous. If you watch Island Town in the Smarty Jones. you’ll note his ability to maintain contact and finish. Iron Fist is versatile and forward going. Tommy Macho raced on worst part of the Mountain and has upside at a price with style that works on this quirky oval..

Most Likely: #3 Frosted 5-2 WON ($4.00)
Best Value: #2 Island Town 10-1 8th
Next Best: #4 Iron Fist 8-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Tommy Macho 10-1 3rd

P4 Grid:

7: 1-7 (A), 2-6-8 (B), 3-4-5 (C)
8: 3-6 (A), 4-5-7 (B), 1-2-8 (C)
9: 8 (A), 7-10 (B), 1-2-4-9 (C)
10: 3 (A), 2 (B), 4-5-7-9-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x5x3x2 = 150 x .50 = $75

$0.50 Pick-4 (7/4/2,8/3,6) Paid $374.00