It’s been a good fall stand, but will be glad to see Churchill meet end Sunday. I didn’t mind taking a hit watching Shackleford finish his career with a win in the G1 Clark, but it’s been nearly impossible for me to get a happy result at the Downs other than last week’s chalky P5/P4.

Shack’s 4th career stakes win, to go with the Preakness, Met Mile and Churchill Downs Handicap, closes out a terrific career that saw him earn $3,090,101 in 20 starts. I saw many people call him over-rated going into this post-BC redemption chance, but his classic at Baltimore (9.5f), important Met (1m) and Clark (9f) are complimented with 3 more G1 placements (BC Dirt Mile-Caleb’s Posse; Haskell-Coil; FL Derby-Dialed In) and 2 other G2 seconds (Kelso-Jersey Town; IN Derby-Wilburn). His lone 3rd was to Jackson Bend and Caleb’s Posse in the Carter and he was 4th of course in the Derby behind Animal Kingdom, Nehro and Mucho Macho Man.

How ‘over-rated’ can he be in light of that resume? Three of his 7 ‘off’ efforts are excusable easily enough: his career bow on the KEE poly and two wet surface flops in the Vanderbilt and Donn. Of the other losses, he was marooned wide in the Fountain of Youth; the Belmont try was probably ill advised; he ran poorly in the Travers and lost all chance at the start of this year’s Dirt Mile.

The reality is that in this era, while he may not have won as much as you’d like in a ‘great’ horse, Shackleford rarely missed an assignment and almost always turned in a real try. He was admirable and easy to root for and was handled by Dale Romans and Co. in a way that should be particularly appreciated since they were never ‘afraid to lose’ with him. You generally will have kind feelings for your Derby picks and Shackleford was mine last year. He should be a popular sire and he leaves behind a lot of fans that will look forward to his progeny hoping they have elements of his fine qualities.

$109k double C/O at Aqueduct for the terrific Cigar Mile card Saturday..

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

2nd: MSW, 2yo, 1m (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Revolutionary 3-5 3rd
Best Value: #3 Transparent 6-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Orb 5-1 WON ($11.00)
Exotics Use: # 8 Market Blaster 20-1 DNF

3rd: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #4 Super Slam 5-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Forty Tales 5-2 WON ($4.80)
Exotics Use: #5 Ascendancy 6-1 7th
Super Add: #3 Global Asset 8-1 8th

4th: CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #10 Ava’s Playful Run 8-1 14th
Next Best: #6 Smokin Alice 4-1 WON ($11.00)
Exotics Use: #16 Glynisthemenace 5-1 6th
Super Add: #5 Princess Reyana 15-1 7th

5th: NY-MSW, 2yo-F, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD)

$109k C/O starts here..

Very tough start to C/O sequence with an undefineable group of turfing state-breds. There doesn’t appear to be anything that special about 5-2 The Lady Says Yes. There is some sibling strength here and there including Freedom Sings (Freedom Rings & the famed Ham Sandwich family), Platinum and Plush (Gitchee Goomee) and Transplendid (Most Happy Fella). Difficult group to decipher..

Best Value: #6 A Prettydixie 8-1 4th
Next Best: #1 As Well 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #10 The Lady Says Yes 5-2 2nd
Super Add: #5 Freedom Sings 20-1 8th

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 2
3: 2-3-4-5-6
4: 4-5-6-10-16
5: 1-2-3-5-6-10

1x5x5x6 = 150 x .50 = $75

6th: 91st Demoiselle (G2), 2yo-F, 9f (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Emollient 1-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Unlimited Budget 2-1 WON ($4.10)
Best Value: #5 Giant Cat’s Eye 20-1 3rd

7th: 99th Remsen (G2), 2yo, 9f (P4, P3, DD)

Tough to get past obvious here. If you want to be imaginative, thoughts should focus on who will relish the 9f distance..

Most Likely: #9 Normandy Invasion 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Delhomme 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #2 Vegas No Show 5-1 9th
Exotics Use: #1e Pletcher entry 4-1 WON ($5.50)/10th

8th: 24th Cigar Mile (G1), 3+, 1m (P3, DD)

Solid Cigar got fascinating with addition of wondrous Groupie Doll this week. Certainly love the Bradley filly, but 8-5 is tough to swallow. Drew perfectly and would love to see her win, but this group isn’t what she’s used to and you are supposed to try and beat her in this spot..

SCR’D down to 5 now with Jersey Town & Associate out..

Best Value: #6 Coil 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 Groupie Doll 8-5 2nd

9th: 117th Gazelle (G1), 3yo-F, 9f (DD)

Have been talking up My Wandy’s Girl and have to give her chance to be special here. Hushion, surprisingly, has wheeled back runners in under 10 days a number of times with great success (26% W’s; 63% ITM last 16X)..

Most Likely: #7 My Wandy’s Girl 3-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Dance Card 9-5 WON ($5.30)
Best Value: #4 Jemima’s Pearl 8-1 7th
Exotics Use: #6 Book Review 2-1 6th

10th: NY-MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-T

Best Value: #5 Nail It 8-1 10th
Next Best: #10 Prohibition 4-1 WON ($16.00)
Exotics Use: #8 Insighting 5-2 9th
Super Add: #3 Spirit of Peace 30-1 7th

<$150 P6 Play:

5: 2-6-10
6: 1-2
7: 4-9
8: 6-7
9: 7
10: 5-8-10

3x2x2x2x1x3 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-2-4-9
8: 1-6-7
9: 2-7
10: 3-5-6-8-9-10

4x3x2x6 = 144 x .50 = $72

$0.50 Pick 4 (1/1/2/10) Paid $103.25

Made real run at HOL monster carryover Thanksgiving Day and had to settle for a $99 conso when 8th race single A Toast to You could not turn back ‘C’ player Shadow Runner. Sequence returned a generous $6,935 to winners, a quarter over the $5,444 parlay. Had A Toast to You held on, the skein likely pays around $2,200, so a life-changing score wasn’t in the offing on what turned out to be a very straightforward sextet. There were some nice hits within the multi-race set and kudos on that front to ATR pushers Seth Merrow and Steve Davidowitz. Both cited 22-1 nightcap runner-up I’ll Run the Show as live and he indeed debuted with aplomb from his Los Alamitos connections dueling to the wire with the 3-2 fave Sacred Ovation. With 2nd choice Warrior James third, the $1 tri return $145. Hope everyone enjoyed the holiday and did well! Clark H. at the Downs, Citation H. at HOL and a $30k C/O at AQU for those ready to dig in on Day 3 of the long racing weekend!

CHURCHILL DOWNS

POST-SCRATCHES

8th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Avenue B 4-1 4th
Best Value: #9 The One Thing 20-1 5th
Next Best: #7 A. P. Eli 12-1 10th
Exotics Use: #10 Chant My Name 7-2 7th

9th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Tough set with no less than 8 of these cutting back..

Most Likely: #6 Colonial Empress 6-1 9th
Best Value: #3 Refugio 8-1 10th
Next Best: #11 Molly Morgan 7-2 WON ($6.60)*
Exotics Use: #10 Royal Rhiannon 3-1 4th

10th: ALW/N2X, 3+, 9f-T (P3, DD)

Enough breeding hints on Quiet Man (6-1) to give him a shot stalking from inside..

Most Likely: #2 Quiet Man 6-1 9th
Next Best: #8 Seton Hall 8-1 8th
Exotics Use: #3 Exothermnic 5-2 6th*
Super Add: #10 Positive Side 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #11 Ready to Taunt 15-1 5th

11th: 138th Clark H. (G1), 3+, 9f (DD)

Pool Play a SCR. Fun edition of this and I want some prices with Shackleford, Take Charge Indy and Mission Impazible taking plenty of money and all 3 just OK..

Most Likely: #10 Lunar Victory 6-1 4th*
Best Value: #4 Bourbon Courage 15-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Cease 5-1 6th
Exotics Use: #7 Fast Falcon 15-1 8th

12th: (Super Hi-5)

Kruthen has done the least wrong of these and stands to improve 2nd out and moving to real dirt. Cool Street tries main as well and her dam MGSW Oonagh McCool was quite OK on the main including a win the Louisville BCH this strip..

Most Likely: #12 Kruthen 8-1 7th
Best Value: #8 Cool Street 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Starter 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #9 Night Seeker 3-1 2nd
Hi-5 Play: #10 Ride the Lightening 7-2 WON ($9.20)*

@$75 P5 Play:

8: 6-7-9-10
9: 3-6-10-11
10: 2-3-8-10-11
11: 10
12: 8-12

4x4x5x1x2 = 160 x .50 = $80

<$75 P4 Play:

9: 3-6-10-11
10: 2-3-8-10-11
11: 10
12: 4-6-8-9-10-12

4x5x1x6 = 120 x .50 = $60

Gratifying to catch modest P6 at Aqueduct Sunday helping punctuate a big weekend that went a long way towards balancing the ledger for recent punting. Steady leaking of air from your balloon takes all kinds of tolls and creates tangential problems. One major issue it can trigger is feeling the pinch and narrowing your budget in response. That results in missing scores that you would hit with your ‘normal’ bankroll approach which cascades into further frustration. As discussed after Breeders’ Cup, any day can produce handsome results for horseplayers if you can afford to persevere or regroup and attack. Hope everyone did well over the weekend. Thanksgiving Holiday starts today and a 5 day cornucopia of opportunity awaits!

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: Stardusk, 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD)

Pianist obviously the horse to beat but she’s not head and shoulders better than Channel Lady. Thunderous Lady gets Lezcano and isn’t impossible if able to pick up a 2-3 lengths. Baffle Me lept forward with turf move winning the Banner Gala but won’t be left alone on the front end today..

Most Likely: #3 Pianist 4-5 4th
Next Best: #7 Channel Lady 4-1 WON ($10.20)
Best Value: #6 Thunderous Lady 12-1 5th
Exotics Use: #4 Baffle Me 8-1 7th

5th: NY-OC/N2X, 3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1e Rice entry 2-1 WON/3rd ($6.10)
Next Best: #5 Tug of War 9-5 2nd
Best Value: #6 Ground Force 15-1 5th

6th: NY-OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

Was ready to use Freedom Rings (12-1) with Shakeira Sunday before she scratched for this spot..

Best Value: #8 Freedom Rings 12-1 7th
Next Best: #1 Kibosh 3-1 WON ($4.10)
Exotics Use: #10 Inimitable Romanee 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #7 Late SCR

7th: S/HCP, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Competitive group and you have to weigh a comebacker like Frazil (7-2) — best on back class — versus lesser lights in good current form..

Best Value: #9 Take Down Two 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Frazil 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #10 Head Heart Hoof 4-1 WON ($13.80)
Super Add: #1a Blind Hope 3-1 4th

8th: OC/N2X, 3+, 1m (DD)

Big Business on some roll since escape from L.A., but notable that Rushing and Ramon side with Chad Brown and The West’s Conspiracy. Souper Speedy’s comeback run was solid off 11 month break..

Best Value: #4 Conspiracy 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Big Business 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Souper Speedy 3-1 5th
Super Add: #6 Last Gunfighter 4-1 WON ($13.40)

9th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-T

Struggled with this. Get feeling that it’s more complicated than it looks..

Most Likely: #1 Colossal Gift 5-2 WON ($5.60)
Best Value: #4 See Me Proud 12-1 7th
Next Best: #9 Commitment Letter 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #2 Hardrocker 15-1 2nd

$36 or $72 P4 Play:

6: 1-8-10
7: 1-4-9-10
8: 3-4
9: 1-4-9 (2-6-10)

3x4x2x3 = 72 x .50 = $36
3x4x2x6 = 144 x .50 = $72

After a bit of a drought, finally put together a big day Saturday that extended from Aqueduct and Delta in the afternoon into the Churchill evening card. Caught nice numbers at each venue with the NY highlight the day’s final 3 races including $19 Barrel of Love’s nightcap win. At Delta, the Princess was the difference maker with 25-1 Touch Maker and 11-1 Sittin At the Bar boosting the huge tri under 3-1 second choice Rose to Gold. The Churchill P5/P4 went insanely chalky, but Eoin Harty’s $31.40 Liberty Girl kicked the night action off well and commenced a great P3. Fun day… Hope everyone did well. Multi-day C/O’s at Aqueduct ($156k) and Hollywood ($170k) the obvious focus for Sunday!

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: NY-MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (P6, P3, DD)

$155,839 P6 C/O starts here..

Weak group and you don’t need me to remind you that these events can be plenty problematic. Hold your nose and use as many of the obvious ones as you can..

Most Likely: #8 Awesome Island 4-1 (A) 6th
Next Best: #9 Azasecret 9-5 (A) 3rd
Best Value: #5 Sharpandwitty 10-1 (B) 7th
Exotics Use: #1 Thetrainwasgone 2-1 (B) WON ($5.80)
Super Add: #7 One Pretty Cat 6-1 (C) 5th

5th: MSW, 2yo-F, 8.5f-T (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Wave Theory 6-5 (A) WON ($3.60)
Next Best: #7 Atlantic Dream 3-1 (B) 2nd
Best Value: #1 Voodoo Tales 8-1 (C) 3rd
Exotics Use: #9 Rock Show 12-1 (X) 7th

6th: NY-MSW, 2yo-F, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #9 Lisalisalee 3-1 (A) 12th
Best Value: #1a (POE) Raven Rise 12-1 (B) 2nd
Next Best: #11 Graceful Meghan 7-2 (B) WON ($12.00)
Exotics Use: #8 China Gold 5-1 (C) 8th

7th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Shakeira 5-2 (A) WON ($3.80)
Best Value: #7 Sex Appeal 10-1 (B) 4th
Next Best: #9 Geisha Gal 7-2 (B) 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Voodoo Tales 8-1 (C) 6th

8th: OC/N2X, 3+, 6f (DD)

Some tough decisions required with this set with 4 excellent sprinters (Ninja Blade, Nathan’s H Q, Beggatthyneighbor, Candyman E) returning from multi-month layoffs..

NOTE SCR’S: 4-7-11-13

Most Likely: #5 Rigby 3-1 (A) WON ($5.20)
Next Best: #9 Beggarthyneighbor 4-1 (A) 7th
Best Value: #1 Ninja Blade 6-1 (B) 5th
Exotics Use: #10 Wee Freudian 20-1 (C) 3rd

9th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T

Most Likely: #8 Fast and Strong 7-5 (A) 3rd
Next Best: #7 Katie Malone 6-1 (B) WON ($12.40)
Best Value: #10 Scienziato 10-1 (C) 6th
Exotics Use: #2 Grace’s Neh Neh 30-1 (X) 8th

<$200 P6 Play:

4: 1-5-8-9
5: 4-7
6: 1-9-11
7: 4
8: 5-9
9: 7-8

4x2x3x1x2x2 = 96 x $2 = $192

$2 Pick 6 (1/3,4,11,12,13,14,15,16/11/3,4,12,13,14,15/4,5,7,11,13/7) Pays $2870.00

$2 Pick 6 (1/3,4,11,12,13,14,15,16/11/3,4,12,13,14,15/4,5,7,11,13/7) Paid $34.00 (5OF6) x 8 = $272.00

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-8-9-11
7: 4-7-9
8: 1-5-9-10
9: 7-8-10

4x3x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

$0.50 Pick 4 (11/3,4,12,13,14,15/4,5,7,11,13/7) Paid $166.00

HOLLYWOOD

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f (P6, P3, DD)

$155,839 P6 C/O starts here..

Most Likely: #10 Low Gear Power 5-2 (A) WON ($5.60)
Best Value: #1 Nonsense 20-1 (B) 8th
Next Best: #4 Power Series 6-1 (C) 2nd
Exotics Use:

5th: MSW, 2yo, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Inflamed Spirit 5-2 (A) 5th
Best Value: #2 I’m Wide Awake 5-1 (B) 6th
Next Best: #4 Dr. Spin 7-2 (B) 7th
Exotics Use: #9 Forest Boy 6-1 (C) 4th

6th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Four here run back off claims..

Most Likely: #4 Hurricane Lake 7-2 (A) 2nd
Best Value: #1 Rock This Way 12-1 (B) WON ($33.80)
Next Best: #3 Arraignment 4-1 (B) 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Megastar 3-1 (B) 5th

7th: MDN CLM, 2yo, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #3 Greeley Awesome 8-1 (A) 3rd
Next Best: #6 Monterey Tale 5-1 (B) 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Money Makin Sam 5-1 (C) 6th
Super Add: #5 Lico 6-1 (C) 2nd

8th: S/ALW, F&M-3+, 6f (DD)

Most Likely: #4 Oscillator 4-1 (A) 3rd
Best Value: #8 Twirlybird 8-1 (A) 7th
Next Best: #9 Christmas Candy 7-2 (B) WON ($11.00)
Exotics Use: #1 Miss Lady Ellen 3-1 (B) 5th

9th: MDN CLM, 3+, 6.5f (Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #5 Marv 7-2 (A) 2nd
Next Best: #10 Unusual Mystery 9-2 (A) WON ($14.00)
Best Value: #7 Moonlight Meteor 15-1 (B) –
Exotics Use: #15 Suancesong 5-1 (C) 3rd

<$150 P6 Play:

4: 1-10
5: 1-2-4
6: 4
7: 3-6
8: 4-8
9: 5-7-10

2x3x1x2x2x3 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-3-4-5
7: 3-6-7
8: 1-4-8-9
9: 5-7-10

4x3x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72