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Spa’s 3rd week ends with fun card

Monday, August 5th, 2013

SARATOGA

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: CLM, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Looks like Crown the Chief gets the lead here and that could make him tough..

Best Value: #2 Crown the Chief 5-1 8th
Next Best: #5 Winning Touch 2-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Curve Ball 12-1 6th
Super Add: #9 Precious Metal 9-2 4th

2nd: MCLM/$25k, 3+, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD)

C. Brown FTS Countercyclical may not have to be much to win debut..

Most Likely: #2 Rum Tum Tugger 5-2 6th
Next Best: #6 Countercyclical 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #8 Spintastic 5-1 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Boogie Too 7-2 WON ($11.40)

3rd: MSW, 2yo, 7f (P3, DD)

Nicely pedigreed babies including Uncle Mo half Souperfast (Broken Vow/Mott), part of Live Oak entry with 2nd timer Kingofgoldstreet (Street Cry/Albertrani). Scratch Chisolm who debuted Saturday and — wait for it — ‘trailed’..

Most Likely: #4 Tightly Bridled 2-1 5th
Best Value: #1e Live Oak entry 5-1 3rd/4th
Next Best: #6 King Cyrus 4-1 WON ($6.20)

4th: NY-MSW, 3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD)

Favored Greeley Pack the speed but turf is the question mark..

Most Likely: #5 Greeley Pack 3-1 WON ($5.60)
Best Value: #9 Seljuk 8-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Hoboken Joe 7-5 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Irish Etiquete 10-1 5th

5th: OC/S-ALW, 3yo-F, 1m-IT (P6, P3, DD)

Oof.. Some tough start to P6 and end of early P4. It’s impossible to rule ANY of the 9 out..

Best Value: #9 Smittenwithkitten 8-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Dancing for Glory 4-1 WON ($7.40)
Exotics Use: #3 Exchange Cat 9-2 8th
Super Add: #8 Red Hot Tweet 8-1 3rd

$72 (or $36) P4 Play:

2: 2-6-7-8
3: 1-4-6
4: 3-5-9
5: 5-9

4x3x3x2 = $72 ($36 for .50)

$1 Pick 4 (7-6-5-4/5/10/11) Paid $299.50 ($149.75 for .50)

6th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Bobby Jo 9-5 3rd
Next Best: #5 My Sparky 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Can’t Explain 4-1 5th

7th: NY-OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #7 Fourseventeen 8-1 7th
Next Best: #11 Jonrah 5-1 WON ($14.40)
Exotics Use: #6 Sneaky Kitten 5-2 2nd
Super Add: #10 Lawyer Jim 12-1 8th

8th: Shine Again, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #6 Well Kept 4-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Delightful Quality 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Apropos 2-1 5th

9th: 10th Waya, F&M-3+, 12f-IT (DD)

Best Value: #4 Anjaz 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Qushchi 2-1 WON ($10.40)
Exotics Use: #6 Mystical Star 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #7 Team 12-1 7th

10th: OC/S-ALW, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T

Most Likely: #1 Starsilhouette 6-5 7th
Best Value: #5 Shezaheartbreaker 8-1 4th
Next Best: #11 Jean’s Surprise 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Lady’s Lunar Luck 5-1 WON ($8.80)

<$50 P4 Play:

7: 6-7-10-11
8: 1-3-5-6
9: 1-4-6
10: 1

4x4x3x1 = $48

Cross Traffic gets G1 stripe; $127k C/O Sunday

Sunday, August 4th, 2013

Thoroughly spectacular afternoon at Saratoga Saturday as the 150th celebration was given a perfect day for patrons to enjoy as well as an appropriately memorable Whitney. Cross Traffic got the big race win he truly deserved after two brilliant but agonizing disappointments in the Westchester and Met Mile. Industry stalwarts in Ocala, Paul Bulmahn and his GoldMark Farm team are easy to root for and winning a race like the Whitney should contribute greatly to their attempts to bolster the regions’ flagging prospects. Successful Dan and Mucho Macho Man rounded out the triple and both of their connections were pleased that their respective charges improves their seasons’ momentum. Wagering wise, had a non-event, up/down day with a P3 here, exacta or trifecta there, but momentum-building was quashed by Kate is a Ten (whom Andy Serling sniffed out) and Assateague in the De La Rose. Hope all did well… A wonderful day for the 33,000+ that thronged the old spa and an equally bright morning bodes nicely for Vanderbilt Sunday as well.

SARATOGA

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: MSW, 3+, 1m-IT (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Lochte 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #3 Strike It Big 6-1 7th
Next Best: #7 Defiant 2-1 6th
Exotics Use: #6 Easement 8-1 8th

2nd: MSW, 2yo-F, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Acquant 7-2 3rd
Next Best: #5 Ketel Twist 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Fierce Boots 4-1 5th
Super Add: #1 Dance Tap 4-1 4th

3rd: CLM, 3+, 5.5f (P3, DD)

Our Corybant will SCR from here hoping for the 8/10 turf sprint to go..

Most Likely: #6 Too Much Talk 5th
Next Best: #2 Road Agent WON ($3.10)
Exotics Use: #4 Meet the Mets 2nd

4th: OC/N3L, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Majestic Hussar WON ($4.90)
Next Best: #6 Consortium 6th
Exotics Use: #7 Make a Fortune 5th

5th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Enquete 6-5 WON ($3.60)
Best Value: #4 Malibu Angel 5-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Guilty Verdict 4-1 2nd

<$50 P4 Play:

2: 3-5-6
3: 2-4-6
4: 4-6-7
5: 2-3-4

3x3x3x3 = 81 x .50 = $41

6th: NY-OC/N2X, 3+, 7f (P6, P3, DD)

$127k C/O starts here..

Very treacherous start to the P6 with entire field separated by about 3 lengths..

Best Value: #10 Bug Juice 12-1 WON ($12.60)
Next Best: #9 Late SCR
Exotics Use: #8 Dehere of the Cat 5-1 6th
Super Add: #7 Zivo 4-1 3rd

7th: NY-OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Funny Money 5-1 WON ($10.00)
Next Best: #1 Moonlit Sonnet 3-1 6th
Best Value: #9 Centrina 10-1 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Eurokay by Me 20-1 8th

8th: OC/S-ALW, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Difficult set to decipher..

Most Likely: #3 Strategic Missle 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #9 Spooky Kitten 5-1 7th
Next Best: #6 Normandy 6-1 9th
Exotics Use: #7 Indian Splendor 6-1 2nd

9th: 29th A.G. Vanderbilt (G1), 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Hard decision to make here for the sextet. Singling Delauney off the poor start miscue at PrM would be ideal, but all scenarios getting any of the others into the circle are plausible..

Most Likely: #3 Delauney 8-5 4th
Next Best: #1 Bahamian Squall 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Justin Phillip 5-1 WON ($8.30)

10th: OC/N2X, 3+, 9.5f-T (DD)

Best Value: #1 Bell by the Ridge 4-1 3rd
Next Best: #8 Tahoe Lake 2-1 4th
Exotics Use: #3 Tricky Hat 5-2 WON ($8.80)
Super Add: #6 Majestic Raffy 10-1

11th: NY-MSW, 3+, 8.5f-IT

Best Value: #7 Campogiovanni 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Sunnysider 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Eleven Bravo 5-1
Super Add: #1 Face the Race 5-2 WON ($9.00)

.10 SUPER: Key 7 with 1-4-5-8-9 (1x5x4x3 = 60 x .10 = $6.00)

<$150 P6 Play:

6: 8-9/SCR10
7: 1-5
8: 3-9
9: 3
10: 1-3-8
11: 4-7

3x2x2x1x3x2 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 3-9
9: 1-2-3-4-5
10: 1-3-8
11: 4-5-7

2x5x3x3 = 90 x .50 = $45

Whitney anchors Spa anniversary; Huge DMR C/O

Saturday, August 3rd, 2013

Irksome afternoon Friday when trying to save $30 cost the bankroll $973 as I fumbled the early P4. I went in to the tricky 4th aware that 6 of them could win it and not ranking Scribbling Sarah ($9.70) higher than 5th was mistake #1. But limiting the play to $45 (2x3x3x5) instead of appreciating the degree of difficulty of the race and spreading further (2x3x5x5 = $75) was the more fateful error. It was also vapid to expect that pro maiden Stock Fund was any more likely than usual to hit the wire first yesterday.

As a result, having $12.60 Sol the Freud, $16.20 Bird House and $13.80 Saturday Nthe Park went for naught in multis. Left Silverette off the turf sprint stake late P4 opener as well, but the 6th-9th quad brought back $160 which won’t be missed nearly as much as the $973. Despite the P4 misses it was a solid day overall with a number of in-race successes, but can’t afford to miss opportunities like Friday’s. Hope everyone did OK.

It’s the authentic 150th anniversary of the first race run at Saratoga today, a sesquicentennial perfectly timed for the meet’s centerpiece event. The Whitney is downright terrific. Meanwhile at ol’ Del Mar, a $619k double carryover has the potential to swell towards $3,000,000..

SARATOGA

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: ALW/N2L, 3+, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Group that is lightly raced and in/out for the most part with the PP’s that typically accompany that spotty form..

Most Likely: #6 Gombey Dancer 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Googleado 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #7 Midnite Poppa 8-1 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Slan Abhaile 7-2 WON ($8.10)

2nd: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Those with experience usually have edge anyway and the ones here that have started seem like they’re quite OK..

Most Likely: #5 Tiz for Tat 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #3 Stormy Henry 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #1 Darley entry 4-1 WON ($10.60)/6th/7th

3rd: MCLM/$20k, F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Bad bunch o’ coconuts. Three of them (2-5-6) add blinkers and you get the feeling with this group that whomever takes control has opportunity to take them all the way. That fact won’t escape savvy Quartarolo with firster Locks of Gold who could clear with aggressive tactics from ideal outside post..

Most Likely: #1e Rodriguez entry 2-1 WON ($3.50)/5th
Best Value: #8 Locks of Gold 12-1 8th
Next Best: #5 Cebu 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 High Inflation 7-2 4th

4th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD)

Good, competitive group with nearly half (2-4-7-8-10) seemingly in range for laurels with right trip. Dual Citizen always dangerous if alone on lead..

Most Likely: #2 Formulaforsuccess 4-1 5th
Next Best: #10 Kanagaro 3-1 8th
Best Value: #4 Louie Mondello 20-1 11th
Exotics Use: #7 East of Danzig 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #8 Quantity 7-2 WON ($9.30)

5th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)

Not the usual late season state bred maiden affair with a number of these looking like they still have career upside. Tough end to the early quad..

Most Likely: #1 Raven Rise 5-1 5th
Best Value: #5 Let Me Be Nuts 8-1 6th
Next Best: #7 Done Smoking 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #9 Carole Lee 15-1 9th

<$50 P4 Play:

2: 3-5
3: 1-8
4: 2-4-7-8-10
5: 1-3-5-7-9

2x2x5x5 = 100 x .50 = $50

6th: NY-OC/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD)

Honest pace should give mid-pack types big shot..

Best Value: #4 Archer Hill 6-1 6th
Next Best: #6 Gimme Credit 7-2 WON ($9.20)
Exotics Use: #5 Papa Freud 10-1 7th
Super Add: #2 Sunlover 8-1 2nd

7th: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P6, P3, DD)

Will tab experienced Dunkin Bend but there are firsters here who can certainly score in bow. Chisolm will need help at SCR time to get in..

Most Likely: #3 Dunkin Bend 5-2 WON ($4.30)
Next Best: #9 Chisolm 2-1 5th
Best Value: #6 Bold Visionary 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Souper Lucky 4-1 3rd

8th: OC/N3X, 3+, 8.5f-IT (G/S, P3, DD)

Joes Blazing Aaron one of those horses that is always dangerous when given opp for uncontested lead. Addition of Rosario only enhances his chances on the front end mission. Price fair..

Best Value: #6 Joes Blazing Aaron 5-1 6th
Next Best: #4 Tetradrachm 3-1 WON ($6.70)
Exotics Use: #2 Fan Base 8-1 7th
Super Add: #7 Admiral Perry 4-1 3rd

9th: 10th De La Rose-R, F&M-3+, 1m-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Love this event which assembles a n interesting cast every year. Chad Brown runners are taking ridiculous amounts of money here daily, but Laugh Out Loud has class edge and gets first Lasix. If pace heats up, and it does look contentious, Ruthenia can run them down. Sweet Little Lion & Miss Montreal were a neck apart at Calder on the Summit undercard. Fun race.

Most Likely: #6 Ruthenia 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #2 Sweet Little Lion 6-1 6th
Next Best: #3 Laugh Out Loud 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Miss Montreal 8-1 7th

10th: 86th Whitney H. (G1), 3+, 9f (P3, DD)

Superb cast for this stand standard and key will be how heated sparring match gets between Cross Traffic & Fort Larned up front. Successful Dan, Ron the Greek and perhaps Fast Falcon will arrive late on the scene..

Most Likely: #4 Cross Traffic 5-2 WON ($9.10)
Best Value: #1 Successful Dan 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Fort Larned 7-5 5th
Exotics Use: #5 Ron the Greek 6-1 4th

11th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (DD)

Best Value: #3 Talmadge Hill 6-1 8th
Next Best: #1e Feron entry 5-1 5th/10th
Exotics Use: #4 Desert Bliss 8-1 3rd
Super Add: #7 Ave’s Halo 7-2 4th

12th: MCLM/$25k, 3+, 1m-IT

Most Likely: #2 St. Sincere 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #6 Trainingforsuccess 8-1 WON ($10.20)
Next Best: #8 Fiddlers Chico 9-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #9 Ryvit 6-1 5th

<$75 P4 Play:

9: 2-3-6
10: 1-3-4-5
11: 1-3-4-7
12: 2-6

3x4x4x2 = 96 x .50 = $48

DEL MAR

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: OC/N2X, 3+, 1m (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Mega Heat 3-1 6th
Next Best: #7 Half Strike 6-1 5th
Exotics Use: #6 Holding Glory 8-1 2nd
Super Add: #9 You Know I Know 8-1 WON ($23.00)

6th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #10 Heart Stealer 7-2 8th
Best Value: #8 Warren’s Flasher 5-1 7th
Next Best: #7 Prettypriceygirl 6-1 6th
Exotics Use: #5 Mary Fildes 12-1 2nd

7th: Cal0MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #6 Miss Loujean 5-1 8th
Next Best: #2 Stole a Kiss 9-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #11 Meinertzhagen 8-1 2nd
Super Add: #3 Eddies Curl 5-2 7th

8th: Clement Hirsch (G1), F&M-3+, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #9 Include Me Out 9-5 8th
Next Best: #2 Byrama 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 More Chocolate 4-1 2nd
Super Add: #5 Via Villaggio 12-1 6th

9th: CLM, 3+, 6.5f (DD)

Best Value: #4 Chibita 8-1 WON ($19.00)
Next Best: #3 Just Irish 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Bob Constitution 6-1 7th
Super Add: #2 Localsucess 8-1 5th

10th: Cal-OC/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-T (Super Hi-5)

Best Value: #1 Christopher Street 6-1 6th
Next Best: #7 Ethnic Dance 3-1 WON ($5.80)
Exotics Use: #2 Pulpit’s Express 5-2 3rd
Super Add: #3 Turn On the Pumps 9-2 2nd
Hi-5 Play: #9 Mr. Ornery 8-1 7th

<$200 P6 Play:

5: 5-6-7
6: 10
7: 2-3-6-11
8: 9
9: 2-3-4-5
10: 1-7

3x1x4x1x4x2 = 96 x $2 = $192

<$50 P4 Play:

7: 2-3-6-11
8: 9
9: 2-3-4-5
10: 1-2-3-7-9

4x1x4x5 = 80 x .50 = $40

Slick strip produces $53k Spa C/O

Friday, August 2nd, 2013

Weather dampened the action at Saratoga Thursday as a tight, sealed strip made the lane largely a no passing zone. The grass events were impacted less by the rain and I might have been smart to shut it down after good results in the hurdle events. Mr. Hot Stuff, known in his flat career as Colonel John’s unsuccessful full brother, crowned his ascension as a chaser for Jack Fisher and Mrs. Johnston with a professional victory in the NSA-G1 Smithwick under Paddy Young. As handsome and correct a horse as anyone will ever see, Mr. Hot Stuff is the latest example of the concept of a ‘job for every horse’.

Other highlights on the afternoon included venerable Saginaw repeating in the Morrissey as Joel Rosario and Saratoga Snacks were enduring a hellish trip pinned down inside. Run a Risk paid $18.40 in a heady ALW, but might have been DQ’d had the stewards bothered to review the break from the gate. When $17.60 Attractive Ride and $19.20 Dixie Sparkle wired their respective fields in the 9th and 10th, a carryover ($53k) was assured. Hope everyone did OK. Del Mar has their own $101k C/O later this evening..

SARATOGA

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: CLM, 3+, 1m-IT (P3, DD)

Tremendous wagering opportunity with ML choices only inches better than host of pricey types..

Best Value: #6 Chilton 6-1
Next Best: #9 Eriugena 3-1
Exotics Use: #2 Frisky Cat 10-1
Super Add: #1 Call Up the Chief 15-1

2nd: NY-MSW, 2yo, 5.5f (P4, P3, DD)

C. Brown/Klaravich 2-1 fave Groupthink undoubtedly horse to beat, but Sol the Freud a full to lovely MSW Franny Freud and pilot reach and worktab say ‘go’..

Best Value: #5 Sol the Freud 5-1
Next Best: #3 Groupthink 2-1
Exotics Use: #1 Blue Collar Cat 7-2
Super Add: #2 Tapidor 5-2

3rd: NY-OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 5.5f (P3, DD)

There is nothing imposing about 5-2 favorite Bit Bustin. 12-1 Madame Prosecutor and 5-1 Bird House should get advantageous set up if track is fair to those trying to come from off the pace..

Most Likely: #1 Bird House 5-1
Best Value: #3 Madame Prosecutor 12-1
Next Best: #5 Fiftyfour Forever 3-1
Exotics Use: #7 Notesfromabroad 5-1

4th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P6, P3, DD)

$53k C/O starts here..

Turf sprint a very tricky start to carryover sequence with at least 6 of the 10 (1-2-3-5-6-10) looking eligible for laurels. Pace seems certain to be authentic if not downright hot..

Most Likely: #6 Stock Fund 4-1
Best Value: #5 Courageous Karen 6-1
Next Best: #1 Pie’s First Lady 7-2
Exotics Use: #10 Bileaps and Bounds 20-1

5th: MCLM/$60k, F&M-3+, 1m-IT (G/S, P3, DD)

Treacherous feeling pricey MCLM. If left alone too long, Saturday Nthe Park can wire..

Best Value: #2 Glenwood Pines 5-1
Next Best: #3 Sapphire Blue 5-2
Exotics Use: #6 Giant’s Jewel 4-1
Super Add: #8 Saturday Nthe Park 3-1

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 3-5
3: 1-3-5
4: 1-5-6
5: 2-3-4-6-8

2x3x3x5 = 90 x .50 = $45

6th: 2nd Caress, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #7 Queen Chatanika 20-1
Next Best: #4 Spun Cap 7-2
Exotics Use: #5 Double the Energy 6-1
Super Add: #1 Madame Giry 9-2

7th: CLM, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Take Down Two 3-1
Next Best: #4 Italian Rules 2-1
Best Value: #2 Island Sunset 6-1
Exotics Use: #6 P J’s Magical Wink 7-2

8th: OC/S-ALW, 3+, 8.5f-IT (DD)

Most Likely: #5 Presumptive 3-1
Next Best: #1a Major Marvel 7-5
Exotics Use: #2 Screenplay 7-2
Super Add: #6 Scotus 6-1

9th: MCLM/$25k, 3+, 5.5f-T

Most Likely: #4 Force Multiplier 8-5
Best Value: #2 Make a Dream 10-1
Next Best: #3 Dapper Draper 5-2
Exotics Use: #6 Freight 6-1

<$150 P6 Play:

4: 1-5-6
5: 2-3-6-8
6: 4-5-7
7: 1
8: 1-5
9: 4

3x4x3x1x2x1 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-2-4-5-6-7
7: 1-2-4-6
8: 1-2-5-6
9: 4

6x4x4x1 = 96 x .50 = $48

Good luck!
Steve

Spa returns OK; 3 big winners of DMR pot

Thursday, August 1st, 2013

Was happy that I kept the investment small in Del Mar’s Wednesday carryover, as the sequence was turned on its’ ear by Gary Sherlock’s $74.20 Passing Game. The wire job winner could only be found on 3 tickets that were worth $352k each when even money fave Athina Lee hung on in the nightcap. 5-1 Hotradamus and 6-1 Graduation winner California Chrome added to the skein’s difficulty factor. At Saratoga, the day turned out as straightforward as advertised and keeping the capping simple paid off with a solid early P4 hit and assorted minor awards. Hope everyone did well. Two jump races at the Spa today including the G1 Smithwick as well as the state bred Morrissey featuring another Saratoga Snacks-Saginaw matchup..

SARATOGA

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: OC/C, 4+, 16.5f-National Fences (P3, DD)

Difficult set to separate..

Most Likely: #10 Staying On 6-1 7th
Next Best: #3 All Together 8-1 WON ($12.20)
Exotics Use: #4 Albany Road 8-1 2nd
Super Add: #5 Labonte 8-1 DNF-Lost rider

2nd: A. P. Smithwick (NSA-G1), 4+, 16.5f-National Fences (P3, DD)

Superb match of star hoppers Demonstrative and Divine Fortune..

Most Likely: #1e Sheppard entry 9-5 2nd/3rd
Best Value: #6 Mr. Hot Stuff 10-1 WON ($12.00)
Next Best: #3 Meganisi 15-1 7th

3rd: MCLM/$50k, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Political Farce 7-2 6th
Best Value: #2 Dedicated Deal 8-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Apex 2-1 2nd

4th: NY-MSW, 3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Well-matched group..

Most Likely: #5 Native Singer 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #7 Bernardo 10-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Thnxtomyuncle 3-1 6th
Exotics Use: #3 Privatize 10-1 5th

5th: MCLM/$35k, 3+, 1m-IT (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Buckwheat 7-2 3rd
Next Best: #8 Rapid Burn 5-2 WON ($5.70)
Best Value: #4 Trusted Choice 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #10 Carjon Carjon 15-1 8th

6th: 10th John Morrissey-NY, 3+, 6,5f (P6, P3, DD)

Coach Parcells can start Hall of Fame induction weekend well if Saratoga Snacks can win in return to Spa prepping for Forego test at end of meet. 20x winner Saginaw 5/2-0-0 upstate and may not be as sharp as in ’12 but is 100% racehorse and always puts out. Mine Over Matter has habit of picking up pieces of hot pace events..

Most Likely: #2 Saratoga Snacks 7-5 3rd
Next Best: #3 Saginaw 9-5 WON ($7.40)
Best Value: #4 Mine Over Matter 8-1 2nd

<$50 P4 Play:

3: 1-2-3-4-6-7 (All)
4: 1-3-5-7
5: 1-8
6: 2-3

6x4x2x2 = 96 x .50 = $48

7th: CLM, 3+, 1m-IT (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Vindication Now 4th
Next Best: #1 Kingsford Drive 5th
Exotics Use: #8 Gamblin Fever WON-DH ($6.80)

8th: CLM, 3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Will be interesting to see how many get taken out of this race..

Most Likely: #1e Rodriguez entry 5-2 2nd/3rd
Best Value: #10 Romancing the Gold 10-1 5th
Next Best: #11 De Price 20-1 6th
Exotics Use: #5 Demon’s Deputy 30-1 4th

9th:OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 1m-IT (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Free as a Bird 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #4 Scenario Analysis 6-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Rock My Heart 5-2 7th
Exotics Use: #6 Moonwalk 8-1 3rd

10th: CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (DD)

This looks super competitive with jump up performances possible from unlikely sources..

Most Likely: #1 Crafty Push 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #4 Midnightinpositano 15-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Little Gabby Girl 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: #10 Shalala 15-1 7th

11th: CLM, 3+, 5.5f-T

Most Likely: #9 Jess Not Jesse 2-1 WON ($5.40)
Best Value: #6 Beer Is Good 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Awakino Cat 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Valediction 8-1 5th

<$25 or <$75 P4 Play:

8: 1-10 (2-4-5-11)
9: 3-4-5-6
10: 1-4-5-6-9-10
11: 9

2x4x6x1 = 48 x .50 = $24
6x4x6x1 = 144 x .50 = $72