Saturday looms as tremendous a day of racing as players and fans will find all year. The cards at Saratoga (Alabama/Sword Dancer), Arlington (Million Day) and Del Mar (Oaks and more) — let alone some excellent spots elsewhere around North America’s ovals — are terrific. Enter the day off another grind-it-out afternoon at Saratoga that included a modest $229 late P4 hit made possible by $20 Ballistic Sue’s courageous turf sprint win. Hope everyone did well and are ready for a spectacular afternoon and evening!

SARATOGA

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: CLM, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD)

Baffling opener with a number of droppers involved. One element to grab on to is lack over overwhelming pace. Colorme Kitten and My Daughter’s Song are the fast ones early..

Most Likely: #6 Ideal Place 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #4 My Daughter’s Song 10-1 9th
Next Best: #9 Colorme Kitten 6-1 6th
Exotics Use: #1 Miss Sweet Afleet 10-1 7th

2nd: MSW, 2yo, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Predictably premium MDN group with a couple working particularly well. Watch board for additional clues..

Most Likely: #3 Tapiture 3-1: Asmussen barn rife with 2yo’s.. 2nd
Next Best: #4 Crescent 5-2: Owns experience.. 8th
Exotics Use: #1 Rebranded 7-2: Rail never a bargain.. 3rd
Best Value: #7 Permanent Campaign 6-1: Added ground may suit.. 5th

3rd: NY-MCLM/$20k, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

My Italian Ices (9-2) can be on loose lead. Ocala Jim owns my favorite triple whammy (Dropping down, cutting back, turf to dirt)..

Best Value: #5 My Italian Ices 9-2 7th
Next Best: #6 Ocala Jim 2-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Pete and David 4-1 5th
Super Add: #7 My Teddy Bear 15-1 3rd

4th: OC/N1X, 3+, 9f (P3, DD)

Sliver and Onions takes next step and seems prudent to believe that he’s pretty darn good until proven otherwise..

Most Likely: #6 Sliver and Onions 3-1 5th
Best Value: #2 Magic Harbor 8-1 8th
Next Best: #3 Golden Lad 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Midnight Taboo 9-2 WON ($8.70)

5th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD)

Thoroughly wide open that features some hard-knocking of 7yo’s (Minnie Punt, Perfect Footprint, Livingston Street that have won 25 races and a bit under $1,000,000 between them. Throw in 6yo Thunder Brew and Westside Corral and it’s 35 wins and $1,500,000..

Best Value: #10 Annawon 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #9 Westside Corral 3-1 WON ($12.40)
Exotics Use: #6 Thunder Brew 6-1 11th
Super Add: #1 Minnie Punt 4-1 4th

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 1-3-4-7
3: 3-5-6
4: 2-3-6
5: 1-6-9-10

4x3x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

6th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD)

Nicely matched field of state bred turf sprinters. Another open event..

Best Value: #8 Lord of Love 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Iron Power 6-1 8th
Exotics Use: #9 Ginger’s Joe 30-1 11th
Super Add: #6 The Big Deluxe 8-1 9th

7th: OC/S-ALW, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P6, P3, DD)

Another fun betting affair..

Most Likely: #6 Gold Megillah 7-2 6th
Next Best: #5 Lawyer Jim 10-1 WON ($13.20)
Best Value: #1 Attenborough 20-1 7th
Exotics Use: #12 Tater Downs 4-1 2nd

8th: OC/N1X, 3+, 9.5f-T (G/S, P3, DD)

Another intriguing set and since not part of the P4, we can play against iffy-on-lawn 7-2 fave Now and Then..

Most Likely: #6 Royal Blessing 4-1 4th
Next Best: #2 Ambersand 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #4 Sandyinthesun 30-1 WON ($49.20)
Exotics Use: #8 Master Wesley 5-1 6th

9th: 39th Sword Dancer (G1), 3+, 12f-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Terrific edition of this event which frequently suffers from date share with Arlington Million. Race starts with Man O’War players (Boisterous-Twilight Eclipse-Exclusive Strike-Optimizer-Al Khali) and fans from there. Big Blue Kitten needs to be respected and note that a big effort from will reflect positively on Real Solution in the Million later. Alan Goldberg & Richard Santulli bring 4yo filly Tannery to this spot which is enough to make you look twice at her. Euro import Nutello is an unknown quantity who was better at 3..

Most Likely: #10 Boisterous 5-2 8th
Best Value: #9 Exclusive Strike 15-1 9th
Next Best: #4 Twilight Eclipse 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #12 Tannery 20-1 4th

10th: 133rd Alabama (G1), 3yo-F, 10f (P3, DD)

Hard to see Princess getting beat, but remember that 10f is a new trip for these. Lightly raced Carnival Court adds Lasix and may be the one to reel in late..

Most Likely: #4 Princess of Sylmar 3-5 WON ($3.00)
Best Value: #5 Carnival Court 15-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Fiftyshadesofhay 2-1 2nd

11th: MCLM/$25k, 3+, 8.5f-IT (DD)

Not a great advertisement for Bernardini in this $25k blue light special as Darley gives away $750,000 Pentagram and Repole shops $350,000 So Outspoken..

Most Likely: #12 Tiu 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Ryvit 6-1 3rd
Best Value: #10 Fiddlers Tango 20-1 9th
Exotics Use: #9 So Outspoken 5-2 WON ($8.40)

12th: NY-MSW, 3+, 7f

Most Likely: #3 Native Singer 3-1 5th
Best Value: #7 Mr. G Zee 12-1 6th
Next Best: #10 Shot to Win 4-1 9th
Exotics Use: #9 Bernardo 10-1 3rd

<$75 P4 Play:

9: 4-9-10
10: 4 (5)
11: 6-9-10-12
12: 3-7-9-10

Main ($1-Princess): 3x1x4x4 = $48
Back-up (.50-Carnival): 3x1x4x4 = 48 x .50 = $24

ARLINGTON PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: 2nd American St. Leger, 3+, 13.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Wigmore Hall 7-2 5th
Best Value: #7 Najjaar 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Dandino 9-5 WON ($3.60)
Exotics Use: #5 Suntracer 8-1 2nd

8th: 37th Secretariat (G1), 3yo, 10f-T (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #9 Jack Milton 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #12 Draw Two 6-1 4th
Next Best: #13 Tattenham 10-1 9th
Exotics Use: #10 Stormy Len 15-1 2nd

9th: 24th Beverly D (G1), F&M-3+, 9.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Dank 7-2 WON ($8.40)
Next Best: #6 Marketing Mix 2-1 4th
Best Value: #3 Solid Appeal 10-1 6th
Exotics Use: #5 Gifted Girl 12-1 2nd

10th: 31st Arlington Million (G1), 3+, 10f-T ((P3, DD)

Most Likely: #13 Grandeur 7-2 7th
Best Value: #1 Real Solution 10-1 WON ($18.80)-Elevated from 2nd
Next Best: #7 Indy Point 9-2 13th
Exotics Use: #10 The Apache 6-1 2nd-DQ’d from Win

<$50 P4 Play:

7: 4-5-7-8
8: 9-12-13
9: 3-4-5-6
10: 1-13

4x3x4x2 = 96 x .50 = $48

DEL MAR

PRE-SCRATCHES

7th: OC/N1X, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #5 Master Cip 10-1 10th
Next Best: #11 Germany Bay 7-2 6th
Exotics Use: #12 Carbonite 8-1 2nd
Super Add: #6 Real Conundrum 10-1 5th

8th:57th Del Mar Oaks (G1), 3yo-F, 9f-T (P3, DD)

Best Value: #2 Discreet Marq 5-1 WON ($11.40)
Next Best: #6 Kitten’s Dumplings 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Emotional Kitten 6-1 4th
Super Add: #1 Wishing Gate 7-2 2nd

9th: Cal-MSW, 2yo-F,

Best Value: #9 My Lucky Rose 5-1 8th
Next Best: #8 Heaven and Earth 7-2 9th
Exotics Use: #3 In Dad’s Honor 9-2 7th
Super Add: #10 Too Obvious 6-1 4th

10th: OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m (Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #1 Corlett Drive 5-1 –
Best Value: #3 Atlantic Swing 15-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Warren’s Veneda 5-1 WON ($11.00)
Exotics Use: #2 Star Vesta 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #8 Branding 7-2 –

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 5-11
8: 1-2-4-6-9
9: 1-3-8-9-10
10: 1-3-4

2x5x5x3 = 150 x .50 = $75

Have to apologize immediately for missing the fact that Aarons Orient had drawn into the MSW 3rd until after the 2nd race had concluded. The Asmussen Orientate colt had been a troubled 4th in the Corfu-Pure Sensation event 7/25 and was obviously a major player in Thursday’s heat after finding his way off the AE list. I hope some of you added him to the early P4 play for at least an additional $12.50 (.50), as the $378 return with All That, Mr. Starr’s Report & Much Stronger was almost 50% above the parlay.

Mr. Starr’s Report at 9-1 helped boost the day along, with Hot Squeeze, another Best Value notion, keying a nice MSW bingo in the 7th with May Shares and Flying K C. Slumber’s comeback was very impressive in the 9th for Juddmonte and Mott ($6.00) and Show Some Lovin capped the good day at a very generous $8.30 in the nightcap. Hope everyone did well! Nice Friday card at Spa and night action at Del Mar features a $110k carryover…

SARATOGA

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: NY-MSW, 3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Poppy’s Watching 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #1 Gentle Jim 2-1 4th
Best Value: #4 Slimshady 4-1 WON ($13.40)
Exotics Use: #6 Hengroen 12-1 9th

2nd: NY-MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2e Broman entry 8-5 WON ($2.90)/2nd
Best Value: #6 Sassy Salsa 10-1 6th
Next Best: #1a Livininthefastlane 2-1 5th
Exotics Use: #5 Alwaysinstilettos 6-1 3rd-2nd for wagering purposes

3rd: 34th Yaddo-NY, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Dayatthespa 2-5 WON ($2.50)
Best Value: #5 Sally’s Dream 15-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Inimitable Romanee 10-1 3rd

4th: MSW, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Mahna 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #1 Delany Road 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 Laguna Girl 5-2 WON ($5.50)
Exotics Use: #6 Fevered Kiss 4-1 5th

5th: MSW, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Sweet Potato 4-1 4th
Best Value: #6 Cool Flame 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Aireofdistinction 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 True Courage 5-1 5th

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 1-2-6
3: 4
4: 1-2-3-5-6-7
5: 2-3-6-7

3x1x6x4 = $72 ($36 for .50)

6th: OC/N3X, 3+, 7f (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Souper Speedy 9-5 WON ($4.30)
Best Value: #1 Praetereo 8-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Brigand 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Private Tale 10-1 6th

7th: MCLM/$25k, F&M-3+, 1m-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #3 Mavourneen 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Coriander 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Love Is Key Kaz 8-1 7th
Super Add: #6 Allie Sweet 4-1 WON ($10.20)

8th: OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD)

All button race..

Best Value: #8 Sheza Heartbreaker 15-1 7th
Next Best: #6 Strategic Missle 8-1 6th
Exotics Use: #3 Ballistic Sue 10-1 WON ($20.40)
Super Add: #7 Spun Silky 4-1 4th

9th: Saratoga Sunrise-NY, 3+, 9f (DD)

Most Likely: #7 Awesome Vision 2-1 WON ($5.30)
Next Best: #6 Groomedforvistory 4-1 7th
Exotics Use: #4 Bigger is Bettor 3-1 2nd

10th: CLM, 3+, 5.5f-T

Riddled with SCR’s..

Most Likely: #1 Awakino Cat WON ($3.20)
Next Best: #5 Synthesizer 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Silent Pipe 2nd

@$50 P4 Play:

7: 2-3-6-7-8
8: 1-3-4-5-6-7-8
9: 4-6-7
10: 1

5x7x3x1 = 105 x .50 = $52.50

$0.50 Pick 4 (6/3/7/1,2,3,6,9,10,11) Paid $228.75

After all the talk this summer regarding steward decisions, had to face down one Wednesday night that ended up costing real money. Edwin Maldonado and Distinctiv Passion were taken down from the Green Flash win at Del Mar, a move that was the difference between a P6 hit of an estimated $22k (parlay) and a conso of $580. Did Distinctiv Passion have to come down? Maybe not. But Maldonado’s steady left hand whipping caused the winner to clearly come out 3+ paths and into Gary Stevens and Strong Wind.

While it may not have been decisive in terms of the outcome of the individual race, the desire to see the stewards uniformly adjudicate incidents of this kind demands understanding and acceptance of the decision despite the impact on one’s self. And yes, it’s the biggest negative financial impact I’ve experienced from a steward call in the 20+ years I’ve played.. Now the good news; it was a great night at Del Mar with a variety of bonus mutuels that more than offset all the P6 investments of the past 4 Wednesdays. To me, the key to the P6 and other good results was finding $20.60 Bas in the 4th race, a filly that was more lightly raced than the rest of the field and had an effort 2 back that made her eligible to upset. The $350 P4 was boosted by Mike Mitchell’s Dolphin Shorts ($15.20) in the finale. Hope everyone did well.

Jumper Double opens the Spa action Thursday after a Wednesday slate that was rendered humdrum by the off turf SCR’s and a parade of chalk. Having walked over the main track to watch the turf stake 6th, can tell you that the strip was very tight which aided on pace runners with no one coming from further than 1.5 lengths behind to win. I think you can expect the surface to be more fair Thursday..

SARATOGA

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: OC/N2L, 4+, 19f-National Fences (P3, DD)

Best Value: #7 Cognashene 20-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Total Command 4-1 DNF-Rider fell
Exotics Use: #4 Apse 8-1 WON ($14.60)
Super Add: #10 Kingdom 3-1 2nd

2nd: Michael Walsh Novice S., 4+, 19f-National Fences (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Cat Feathers 6-1 4th
Best Value: #6 Alajmal 20-1 6th
Next Best: #8 Barnstorming 5-2 WON ($13.80)
Exotics Use: #2 Extraextraordinary 5-1 3rd

3rd: MSW, 2yo, 5f (P4, P3, DD)

Pure Sensation is likely out of the debut v. Corfu and goes in as non-favorite..

Most Likely: #3 Pure Sensation 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Divine Energy 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #8 Pecorino 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #5 Enthrone 10-1 5th

4th: MSW, 3+, 9f (P3, DD)

Yeesh.. Other than outsiders (2-3), field separated by less than lengths. Using all 5 of these in multis..

Most Likely: #1 Sneaky Blowout 3-1 4th
Best Value: #5 Speechmaker 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #8 Brabbham 5-2 5th
Exotics Use: #7 All That 4-1 WON ($10.60)

5th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Flowing Mane 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #5 Mr. Starr’s Report 15-1 WON ($20.80)
Next Best: #10 Saved the Best 7-2 6th
Exotics Use: #6 Summer Sands 6-1 4th

6th: CLM ($100k), 3yo, 6.5f (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Much Stronger 3-1 WON ($3.40)
Best Value: #8 Jumpinofftheedge 20-1 6th
Next Best: #4 Perilous Indian 8-1 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Ration 8-1 4th

$25 P4 Play:

3: 3
4: 1-4-5-7-8
5: 3-5-6-7-10
6: 5

1x5x5x1 = $25

7th: NY-MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f-T (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Flying K C 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #8 Hot Squeeze 10-1 WON ($14.40)
Next Best: #7 Hangingwithsonny 6-1 7th
Exotics Use: #5 May Shares 4-1 2nd

8th: 34th West Point-NY, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Really good edition of this..

Most Likely: #2 Lubash 5-2 4th
Best Value: #1 Mr. Vegas 10-1 7th
Next Best: #10 Kharafa 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Hangover Kid 6-1 WON ($13.80)

9th: OC/C, 3+, 9.5f-T (P3, DD)

Stakes quality field and plenty tough to decipher..

Most Likely: #3 Slumber 4-1 WON ($6.00)
Next Best: #5 Teaks North 2-1 6th
Exotics Use: #4 Sky Blazer 5-2 2nd
Super Add: #1 Reflecting 6-1 3rd

10th: OC/N2X, 3+, 1m-IT (DD)

Most Likely: #6 LATE SCR
Best Value: #9 Beer Garden 6-1 5th
Next Best: #7 Monument Hill 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Tiz Gianni 10-1 9th

11th: MCLM/$25k, 3+, 5.5f-T

Most Likely: #8 Show Some Lovin 7-2 WON ($8.30)
Next Best: #1 Freight 4-1 4th
Best Value: #9 Southern Safari 12-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #10 Hoboken Joe 3-1 5th

<$50 P4 Play:

8: 1-2-8-10
9: 3-4-5
10: 6-9
11: 1-8-9-10

4x3x2x4 = 96 x .50 = $48

Fair amount of rain in the area Tuesday doffs the non-stake grass races Wednesday, but the precip was needed for the courses as we move into the final 3 weeks of the meet. Ended Week 4 Monday missing a huge opportunity in the early P4 ($1,740), where Chad Brown anchor leg firster Due Diligence virtually assured that the sequence only required negotiation of the P3 that came before. Sensing that the opener was a mess, the all button worked well snaring 8-1 Elusive Act. But 25 minutes later, itwas a moot point. Short fields have been a curiously difficult hurdle for me this meet and while willing to try and beat Magical Moon, I couldn’t see Jewel of a Cat getting past her, Lignite or first turf Little Sandy. This was the second bonus quad of the meet that I’m especially disappointed I missed having gone in feeling like the sequence had particular potential. It’s usually essential to snare 3-4 of these a season to help guarantee a profit and after a nice opening quarter of the meet, I’ve been leaking money back over the past fortnight. Let’s dig in the heels and attack Week 5 and the weekly Del Mar Wednesday carryover!

SARATOGA

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Nothing clever to offer with the faves looking better than the prices. Rosie’s Song may be free-wheeling up front..

Most Likely: #4 Rosie’s Song 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #5 Prize Taker 4-1 7th
Next Best: #3 Soul Opposition 3-1 WON ($10.80)
Exotics Use: #6 Isn’tshewonderful 7-2 5th

2nd: NY-MSW, 2yo, 5.5f-OFF THE TURF (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #10 Howaboutwe WON ($5.40)
Next Best: #3 Hard Rumor 4th
Exotics Use: #8 Carolinian 2nd

3rd: MCLM/$20k, 3+, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #4 Velocci 6-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Mr. Style 8-5 WON ($4.00)
Exotics Use: #6 Navajo Ca Lo 5-1 3rd

4th: OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P3, DD)

As highlighted by Andy Serling Tuesday on ATR, KMc’s Shadwell returnee Asiya may be pretty good and gets 1st Lasix too (30%; $3.53)..

Most Likely: #5 Asiya 9-5 WON ($4.50)
Best Value: #3 Here’s Zealicious 4-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Momentary Magic 7-2 5th

5th: MSW, 2yo-F, 5f (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Cynical Storm 2-1: Here since June and drilling well.. WON ($7.20)
Best Value: #3 Mallory Street 6-1: Shopped spots, lands here; Sharp for bow.. 2nd
Next Best: #4 Delightful Liz 4-1: T. Dutrow Limehouse prepping nicely at Fair Hill.. 6th
Exotics Use: #1 Trautman 5-2 4th

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 3-8-10
3: 4-5-6
4: 5 (1-3)
5: 2-3-4

Main: 3x3x1x3 = $27 $1 P4 (2/4/5/7/9/10-2/5/7/8-5-2) Paid $51.00
Backup: 3x3x2x3 = 54 x .50 = $27

6th: Stroll, 3yo, 9f-IT (G/S, P3, DD)

Really nice assembly of cut below graded stakes 3yo turfers and seemingly wide open. I’ll Call, already one that looked to be forwardly placed, adds blinkers. Don’t see a whole lot of other speed here, so whomever gets aggressive could get rewarded. Don’t be shy about watch the board and shopping for prices here. There has to be one in here that gets lost on the board..

Most Likely: #5 Winning Cause SCR
Next Best: #8 I’ll Call 6-1 7th
Best Value: #7 Readyshakego 30-1 6th
Exotics Use: #1 Java’s War SCR

7th: OC/S-ALW, F&M-3+, 1m-OFF THE TURF (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #6 Swakopmund 3rd
Next Best: #7 Holiday’s Jewel 2nd
Exotics Use: #11 Currency Union WON ($8.00)
Super Add: #5 Starship Gambler

8th: Troy, 3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD)

Best Value: #8 Hogy 9-2 WON ($6.40)
Next Best: #4 Great Mills 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Strong Impact 7-2 3rd

9th: OC/S-ALW, 3+, 9f (DD)

Good set up here for mid-pack/closer types..

Best Value: #3 Warrior Up 6-1 8th
Next Best: #4 Horned Frog 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Nevada 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #6 Thunder Quay 7-2 3rd

10th: MCLM/$25k, F&M-3+, 1m-OFF THE TURF

Most Likely: #10 My Perfect Valentine 3rd
Next Best: #15 High Inflation 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Your Lion Eyes 5th
Super Add: #8 Brickhouse Baby WON ($13.20)

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 6-7-11
8: 4-8
9: 2-3-4-6
10: 7-8-10-15

3x2x4x4 = 96 x ,.50 = $48

DEL MAR

PRE-SCRATCHES

3rd: MCLM/$20k, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P6, P3, DD)

$255k C/O starts here..

Belvoir firster Spritzy may not have to be much too best these. Gets Bejarano too..

Best Value: #6 Spritzy 5-1 7th
Next Best: #5 Calameera 3-1 WON ($7.40)
Exotics Use: #8 Secret Memo 7-2 4th
Super Add: #10 Scary Fast 5-2 3rd

4th: CLM, F&M-3+, 1m (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Bonita Star 4-1 5th
Best Value: #8 Bas 8-1 WON ($20.60)
Next Best: #1 Pawn Shop 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Katy’s Kitty 5-1 6th

5th: Cal-MSW, F&M-3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD)

Pretty respectable set of older maiden state breds. Pace appears likely to get hot. Add 2 & 7 to deep plays..

Most Likely: #4 Tiz a Kiss 5-2 WON ($7.20)
Best Value: #3 Hot and Pleasing 10-1 5th
Next Best: #9 Sidepocket Run 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Coconut Cream Pie 7-2 8th

6th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 1m (P3, DD)

#8 Unbridled Giant 5-2 WON ($6.20)
Next Best: #6 Frenemy 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #3 Somewhere With You 10-1 9th
Exotics Use: #1 In a Wine Tizzy 6-1 4th

7th: Green Flash H., 3+, 5f-T (DD)

Most Likely: #4 Distinctiv Passion 5-2 3rd-DQ’d from Win
Best Value: #3 Circa’sgoldengear 10-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Sirocco Strike 4-1 WON ($16.40)-Elevated from 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Strong Wind 6-1 2nd-Elevated from 3rd

8th: MCLM/$20k, F&M-3+, 6.5f (Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #8 Dolphin Shorts 5-1 WON ($15.20)
Best Value: #4 Reclusive 15-1 6th
Next Best: #3 Janes Ship 5-1 9th
Exotics Use: #10 Party Bus 7-2 3rd

<$150 P6 Play:

3: 5-6-8-10
4: 1-6-8
5: 4
6: 6-8
7: 4
8: 3-4-8

4x3x1x2x1x3 = 72 x $2 = $144 $2 Pick 6 (5/8/4/8/1/8) Paid $581.40 (5OF6)

<$75 P4 Play:

5: 2-3-4-6-7-9
6: 6-8
7: 1-3-4-5
8: 3-4-8

6x2x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72 $0.50 Pick 4 (4/8/1/8) Paid $351.85

Sunday’s otherwise idyllic day at Saratoga were brought down considerably by unpleasant circumstances surrounding the running of the Adirondack. A bad step doomed McPeek’s Charmed Hour at the back of the filly stake, while poor decision-making by Joel Rosario and Corey Lanerie were affecting the outcome through the stretch. Drawn inside, Lanerie and the heavily favored Fiftyshadesofgold were in jackpots all the way around the track and missed opportunities for an alternate route more than once before attempting to thread a needle inside Rosario and tiring Who’s in Town. Rosario’s desire to deny Lanerie and the Bret Calhoun trainee passage came close to initiating a pile up and resulted in the Michael Matz being disqualified from the win. The decision, which was a virtual certainty, elevated the hard-trying LA-bred Designer Legs into the circle. While Rosario was 100% wrong with his yellow card actions, Lanerie’s failure to provide his gal a less harrowing route has to be acknowledged. Even more difficult though was the death throes of Charmed Hour who could not be prevented from making right in front of grandstand apron patrons. It completely diminished the otherwise perfect afternoon and weekend. Week 4 closes out with an interesting slate..

SARATOGA

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: CLM, 3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Lots of class dropping going on which makes for potential chaos. What there isn’t in here, is a great deal of speed..

Most Likely: #5 Inflation Target 2-1 5th
Next Best: #6 Tummel 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Martini Madness 12-1 WON ($12.20)

2nd: CLM, F&M-3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Well-matched field and vulnerable favorite Bin Elusive has to improve to contend..

Most Likely: #7 Seven Dreams 6-1 5th
Best Value: #4 Hillary D 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Bin Elusive 5-2 8th
Exotics Use: #1 Hailey’s Star 7-2 6th

3rd: 2nd Coronation Cup, 3yo-F, 5.5f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Magical Moon 7-5 2nd
Best Value: #6 Little Sandy 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Lignite 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #1 Mystic Love 8-1 5th

4th: NY-MSW, 3+, 1m-IT (P3, DD)

Hard to argue with C. Brown’s numbers with horses like Leroy Jr. and you best believe he is out to impress the well-heeled new client involved..

Most Likely: #4 Leroy Jr. 5-2 4th
Next Best: #6 National Buck 4-1 6th
Best Value: #8 Downgoesfrazier 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Insighting 7-2 5th

5th: MSW, 2yo, 5.5f-T (P6, P3, DD)

C. Brown looks for double here with sharp-working firster Due Diligence..

Most Likely: #8 Due Diligence 8-5 WON ($3.20)
Next Best: #7 Sum Superstar 5-2 5th
Best Value: #9 Vigorish 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 No Dishonor 4-1 4th

<$50/$25 P4 Play:

2: ALL
3: 3-5-6
4: 4-6
5: 8

8x3x2x1 = $48 ($24 for .50)

6th: MCLM/$20k, F&M-3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Inaflash 7-5 WON ($3.20)
Next Best: #8 Rettalfa 3-1 4th
Best Value: #7 Darnley Bay 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Toast to Ashley 4-1 3rd

7th: OC/S-ALW, 3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Terrific group. SCR of Dawly changes complexion a bit..

Most Likely: #5 The Truth and K G 4-1 WON ($9.70)
Best Value: #7 Frazil 15-1 5th
Next Best: #8 Hello Lover 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Nevada Kid 12-1 7th

8th: Kid Russell-R, 3+, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Another set of good horses led by favorite Hardened Wildcat who always fires..

Most Likely: #5 Hardened Wildcat 2-1 6th
Best Value: #2 Right to Vote 8-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Candyman E 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Trolius 12-1 5th

9th: CLM, 3+, 5.5f-T (DD)

Most Likely: #2 Don’t Say No 3-1 6th
Next Best: #5 Radiohead 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #1 Sokitumi Samurai 10-1 4th
Exotics Use: #3 Special Selection 15-1 7th

10th: CLM, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT

Doesn’t Edie look almost too likely?

Most Likely: #4 Edie 2-1 WON ($3.50)
Best Value: #3 Chick in Slacks 15-1 3rd
Next Best: #10 Town Flirt 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Glamour Galore 10-1 –

<$50 P4 Play:

7: 5-6-7-8
8: 2-5
9: 1-2-5
10: 4-3-8-10

4x2x3x4 = 96 x .50 = $48