Well, what’s yet one more C/O flirtation? Got through first 4 legs cleanly Friday but knew trouble was brewing when Linda Rice’s 6-1 Make a Decision was getting bet in the state-bred turf route 9th. The Medaglia d’Oro 3yo, who missed the summer turf season, followed his recent ALW win with another good effort and couldn’t be denied in deep stretch. Then in a surprising development, 10th race winner Lemon Lashes ($32.00) — 4th choice for me as an exotics player but left off my P6 play — was the lone uncovered runner in the pool and everyone has another chance at the sextet with $173k as the jackpot. Leave for California this afternoon with Breeders’ Cup ATR live from Santa Anita starting Monday!

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: MSW, 2yo, 1m (P6, P3, DD)

Not sure what to do about the pair of Pletcher firsters..

Most Likely: #10 Tourist 4-1 7th
Best Value: #4 Wicked Strong 8-1 WON ($10.20)
Next Best: #9 Endowment Manager 3-1 8th
Exotics Use: #1 Bourbon Sense 10-1 3rd

6th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 7f-T (G/S, P3, DD)

As always, state-bred ALW makes for a great opportunity. Spread and use the big numbers..

Most Likely: #5 Joy Seeker 6-1 WON ($7.60)
Next Best: #9 Ascended Fever 8-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Image of Noon 7-2 4th
Best Value: #10 Kimmies Lucky Star 30-1 7th
Super Add: #7 Silver Silence 20-1 8th

7th: OC/N2X, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Candyman E 3-1 WON ($6.50)
Next Best: #12 Readbytheline 6-1 10th
Best Value: #9 The Truth and K G 8-1 6th
Exotics Use: #1a Congressional Page 4-1 8th

8th: 38th Bold Ruler (G3), 3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Pace edge at first blush to Strapping Groom but note blinker addition to not-slow-to-begin-with Clearly Now. Could trigger prompt or duel scenario. Big Screen gets chance to sit behind that pair. This may be more complicated event than it looks and no one is without chance as a result..

Most Likely: #6 Strapping Groom 9-5 4th
Best Value: #5 Clearly Now 6-1 WON ($9.80)
Next Best: #2 Big Screen 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #4 Politicallycorrect 5-1 6th

9th: 19th Turnback the Alarm (G3), F&M-3+, 8.5f (DD)

Most Likely: #6 Centring 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #7 Royal Lahaina 6-1 4th
Next Best: #2 Street Secret 3-1 7th
Exotics Use: #5 Moon Philly 10-1 6th

10th: NY-OC/N1X, 3+, 7f-T

Bizarroworld could get very loose up front..

SCR NOTES: #13 (AE) Gimme Credit (7-2) gets in and is a major player..[/i]

Most Likely: #8 Bizarroworld 4-1 8th
Best Value: #9 Carson Bandit 10-1 5th
Next Best: #13 Gimme Credit 7-2 7th
Exotics Use: #5 Precious Metal 15-1 WON ($23.20)

<$150 P6 Play:

5: 1-4-9-10
6: 5-9
7: 2-9-12
8: 2-5-6
9: 6
10: 8

4x2x3x3x1x1 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-2-9-12
8: 2-5-6
9: 2-5-6-7
10: 8-9-13

4x3x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

Getting a little maddening skirting carryover tries lately with a number of sequences proving just out reach due to budget constraint or anguished ticket building decisions. The 6 winners in Wednesday’s Belmont skein were all slated in the tabs and after catching the first half of the sextet, I thought there was a real chance to collect some balloons on the $96 play. Alas, three straight 3rd choices hit the wire first in the second half and I had to settle for the nice $350 triple in the 8th through the runner-up effort of Hennig’s Trusted Choice. Meanwhile, the C/O returned a very generous $9,550 and felt like another in a series of hittable opps that have slipped by these last 3 months. Wasn’t planning on playing Friday as I prepare to leave for California, but the $41k carry at Belmont proved irresistible! There’s a $47k C/O to consider at Santa Anita later too…

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: CLM, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P6, P3, DD)

Well-matched group with plenty of pace signed on, a scenario made potentially more difficult if jocks snatch and grab.

Most Likely: #2 Ephyra 3-1 (A) 5th
Best Value: #6 Bricks and Clicks 10-1 (B) WON ($17.40)
Next Best: #5 Chickwalkintoabar 6-1 (C) 8th
Exotics Use: #11 Lemon Song 5-1 (C) 2nd

6th: CLM, F&M-3+, 6f-IT (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Fantastic Eyes 7-2 (A) 3rd
Next Best: #1e Jacobson entry 3-1 (A) WON ($6.40)/5th
Best Value: #7 John’s Mariah 10-1 (B) 9th
Exotics Use: #6 Belle of the West 5-1 (C) 2nd

7th: CLM, F&M-3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Hot Splash 5-2 (A) WON ($5.60)
Best Value: #4 Mess in a Dress 8-1 (A) 3rd
Next Best: #1 Lily Lynn 2-1 (B) 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 My Unbridled Storm 4-1 (C) 6th

8th: Belle Cherie, 3yo-F, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Wedding Toast 3-5 (A) WON ($2.70)
Best Value: #1 Ol Donyo 8-1 (B) 4th
Next Best: #6 Flash Forward 5-1 (C) 3rd

9th: NY-OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f-IT (DD)

Schettino re-claimed Mia Poppy at first opportunity and gelding may get loose up front if Rosario doesn’t challenge from outside on Breathaway..

Most Likely: #8 Powerful Instinct 5-2 (A) 2nd
Next Best: #2 Iron Power 3-1 (A) 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Mia Poppy 10-1 (B) 4th
Best Value: #10 Breathaway 10-1 (C) 10th

10th: MSW, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T

Insane nightcap with a cast of older fillies and mares that still have upside despite diploma search at this late date. Note Mrs. Weber’s Gold Empire SCR’D — out of G1 Gazelle winner In the Gold — is a 4yo facing 3yo’s..

Most Likely: #5 The Blonde Peque 7-2 (A) 2nd
Best Value: #2 Wundahowigothere 12-1 (B) 5th
Next Best: #6 Giant’s Jewel 8-1 (B) 7th
Exotics Use: #3 Lemon Lashes 15-1 (C) WON ($32.00)

<$150 P6 Play:

5: 2-6
6: 1-3-7
7: 4-5
8: 5
9: 2-8
10: 2-5-6

2x3x2x1x2x3 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$50 P4 Play:

7: 1-4-5
8: 1-5
9: 2-8
10: 2-3-4-5-6-7-9-13

3x2x2x8 = 96 x .50 = $48

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: CLM, F&M-3+, 1m (P6, P3, DD)

$45k C/O starts here..

Big drop for Another Page (2-1) and gets weight aid with bug as well. Still may not be enough if she doesn’t revert to spring form..

Most Likely: #4 Darnley Bay 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #5 Go the Distance 6-1 6th
Next Best: #1 Rock Show 3-1 WON ($6.90)
Exotics Use: #2 Another Page 2-1 4th

5th: MCLM/$65k, 2yo-F, 1m-T (G/S, P3, DD)

Tricky MDN sellers with 6 dropping from MSW company..

Most Likely: #9 Gondole 4-1 WON ($11.00)
Best Value: #6 Reckless Move 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #11 Tapitbythesea 10-1 10th
Exotics Use: #1 Rohver Girl 10-1 8th

6th: MCLM/$25k, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Nickerdoodle 3-1 WON ($11.20)
Next Best: #7 Love That Kelly 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Union Square 7-2 7th
Super Add: #10 Notional Girl 8-1 6th

7th: OC/N1X, 3+, 7f-T (P3, DD)

Well-matched set here with Bluegrass Springs (5-2) a vulnerable fave and 3rd choice Hamnet still needing improvement to win..

Best Value: #9 Jess Not Jesse 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Thomas Hill 4-1 6th
Exotics Use: #8 Hamnet 4-1 WON ($6.40)
Super Add: #1 Awakino Cat 7-2 2nd

8th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-IT (DD)

Most Likely: #9 Odeon 3-1 4th
Best Value: #4 Trusted Choice 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 Wind of Bosphorus 4-1 WON ($8.20)
Exotics Use: #7 Saved the Best 5-1 3rd

9th: CLM, 3+, 7f-T

Best Value: #9 Pasta Lover 12-1 5th
Next Best: #8 Mythical Hero 6-1 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Master Wesley 3-1 WON ($5.40)
Super Add: #1 Minnie Punt 7-2 6th

<$100 P6 Play:

4: 1-2-4-5
5: 6-9-11
6: 2
7: 9
8: 4-9
9: 8-9

4x3x1x1x2x2 = 48 x $2 = $96

<$50 P4 Play:

6: 1-2-4-7-10
7: 5-8-9
8: 4-9
9: 6-8-9

5x3x2x3 = 90 x .50 = $45

BELMONT PARK

PRE-SCRATCHES

<$25 P5 Play:

1: 2-4-6-7-8-11-12-13
2: 6
3: 8
4: 5
5: 2-8-12

8x1x1x1x3 = 24 x .50 = $12

6th: NY-MSW, 3+, 6f-IT (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Raglin River 3-1 WON ($5.20)
Best Value: #8 Seljuk 12-1 6th
Next Best: #2 Gentle Jim 5-1 7th
Exotics Use: #3 Bottleofredorwhite 4-1 3rd

7th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 7f-T (G/S, P3, DD)

Best Value: #4 KNOCKHER OFF 10-1 WON ($9.30)
Next Best: #9 Madam I’m Adam 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #10 Campogiovanni 4-1 4th
Super Add: #11 Captain Gaughen 5-1 8th

8th: Ticonderoga-NY, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Inimitable Romanee 4-1 8th
Best Value: #9 Frosty Bay 15-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Shakeira 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Dreaming of Cara 20-1 7th

9th: Hudson-NY, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Mine Over Matter 2-1 4th
Best Value: #2 Night Maneuver 7-2 6th
Next Best: #1 Palace 3-1 WON ($6.00)
Exotics Use: #6 Moonlight Song 6-1 2nd

10th: Mohawk-NY, 3+, 8.5f-T (DD)

Most Likely: #6 Lubash 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 King Kreesa 5-2 WON ($6.20)
Best Value: #2 Compliance Officer 10-1 8th
Exotics Use: #11 Notacatbutallama 6-1 3rd

11th: Empire Classic-NY, 3+, 9f

Most Likely: #7 Saratoga Snacks 5-2 WON ($5.00)
Next Best: #8 Readtheprospectus 2-1 7th
Exotics Use: #4 Awesome Vision 4-1 6th
Super Add: #1 Bigger is Bettor 8-1 2nd

<$200 P6 Play:

6: 2-3-4-8
7: 4
8: 3-9
9: 1-2-3
10: 6-8
11: 7-8

4x1x2x3x2x2 = 96 X $2 = $192

$2 P6 (4-4-1-1-8-7) Paid $40.00 (5of6) x 2 = $80.00

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 3-5-7-9
9: 1-2-3-6
10: 2-6-8-11
11: 7-8

4x4x4x2 = 128 x .50 = $64

SANTA ANITA

PRE-SCRATCHES

4th: S/ALW, 3+, 1m-T (P6, P3, DD)

$230k DBL C/O starts here..

Best Value: #8 Bipartisan 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Olympic Blue 6-5 WON ($3.40)
Exotics Use: #1 Tamarack Smarty 6-1 4th
Super Add: #3 Lord Vronsky 3-1 5th

5th: CLM, 3+, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Top 4 ML faves look interchangeable and Coo Cachoo may be coming back around. Plenty of pace here..

Most Likely: #5 McKenzie’s Way 5-2 3rd
Next Best: #3 Sammy’s a Runner 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #2 Coo Cachoo 12-1 7th
Exotics Use: #1 Newfound Gold 3-1 WON ($7.60)
Super Add: #7 Chicksdigtheshark 7-2 6th

6th: S/ALW, 3 +, 6.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Field Report 8-5 WON ($3.40)
Next Best: #3 Cinco de Mario 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #4 Hello Frankie 6-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Life Rule 8-1 8th

7th: CLM, 3yo, 6f (P3, DD)

What a tremendous race this is with no one seemingly impossible..

Most Likely: #2 Derringer 3-1 4th
Best Value: #8 Full Consent 6-1 5th
Next Best: #9 Summer Exclusive 5-2 WON ($4.80)
Exotics Use: #1 Syndicated 6-1 2nd

8th: 1st California Flag-CA, 3+, 6.5f-T (DD)

Cast of pros for this event named for one of the great surveyors of the Downhill Course. Don’t know if there’s enough pop in the cast to allow for Tiz a Minister’s big late kick, but I do love me some of Aguirre’s late lugger..

Most Likely: #7 Ain’t No Other 7-2 2nd
Next Best: #9 Strong Wind 3-1 8th
Best Value: #5 Starspangled Heat 5-1 6th
Exotics Use: #1 Tiz a Minister 6-1 3rd

9th: Cal-MCLM/$50k, 2yo-F, 1m (Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #5 Water Issues 7-2 WON ($5.80)
Next Best: #9 She’s Flush 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #7 Papa’s Flashy Girl 5-1 4th
Exotics Use: #6 SCR

<$150 P6 Play:

4: 1-4-8
5: 2-3-5
6: 1
7: 2
8: 1-5-7-9
9: 5-9

3x3x1x1x4x2 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-3
7: 1-2-8-9
8: 1-5-7-9
9: 5-7-9

2x4x4x3 = 96 x .50 = $48

Good enough afternoon at Belmont Thursday, but failed to convert my positive view of 7th race upsetter Claiming Victory ($22.20) into P6 play leaving $10k on the table. As discussed Wednesday on ATR, Jim Ryerson’s Claiming Victory had intriguing potential at a price trying turf for the first time and as controlling speed. But with concern over the reliability of Flores Island in the 4th, choice of Ascended Fever as sequence’s single felt right after the SCR’s of Blossom’s Trail and Hot Rendezvous. Claiming Victory’s wire win helped boost the P4 hit to $368 and the $10,327 P6 payoff was very generous for the otherwise mundane skein. Hope everyone did well. Really fun Keeneland races today and a $43k+ C/O at Santa Anita later this afternoon..

KEENELAND

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: MSW, 2yo, 7f (P3, DD)

Oxley homebred Awesome Sky a full to Sky Dreamer who was a 2yo debut winner at WO. Sharp gate drill at CD last week for bow; LoPresti sends Match Up out first time for the Kleins and dam Change Up was a 2yo flasher exchanging stakes decisions in ’06 with Nafzger’s Lady Joanne in the Pocahontas and Golden Rod..

Best Value: #1 Awesome Sky 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Baby Titan 5-2 11th
Exotics Use: #4 Match Up 10-1 9th
Super Add: #2 Bro Rodrigeaux 3-1 3rd

6th: MSW, 2yo, 7f (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Rumblefortheroses 4-1 6th
Best Value: #7 Camp Meeting 10-1 9th
Next Best: #6 Valdina’s Will 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Long Station 7-2 4th

7th: ALW, 3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

Insanely competitive group with rife with graded stakes performers. Looks like there’s plenty of pace too..

Best Value: #8 Pure Tactics 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Turallure 4-1 6th
Exotics Use: #4 Trend 5-1 8th
Super Add: #1 Regally Ready 6-1 WON ($25.20)

8th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Little pace involved and you may do well for multi-race purposes to hope Before You Know It or Acenda swipe this from up front. If they don’t, it could be any of many..

Best Value: #2 Before You Know It 15-1 8th
Next Best: #7 Acenda 6-1 4th
Exotics Use: #9 Madam Nancy 12-1 10th
Super Add: #5 Two to Tango 6-1 9th

9th: 23rd Valley View (G3), 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (DD)

Yet another superb sophomore filly turf heat. Summer of Fun has faced best company and is horse to beat, but there’s unlimited alternatives within a length or two of her..

Most Likely: #8 Overheard 5-1 WON ($12.40)
Next Best: #3 Summer of Fun 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #4 Stormin Elle 15-1 7th
Exotics Use: #1 Nellie Cashman 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #10 Sustained 8-1 6th

10th: CLM, F&M-3+, 7f (Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #7 Glamour Galore 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #3 Rewardbyblitzing 20-1 11th
Next Best: #4 Guilded Reward 12-1 8th
Exotics Use: #12 Issheit 6-1 9th
Super/Hi-5: #6 Blue Cliff 6-1 5th

<$75 P5 Play:

6: 1-6-7
7: 1-4-5-8
8: 2-7
9: 3-8
10: 3-4-7

3x4x2x2x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

<$50 P4 Play:

7: 1-4-5-8
8: 2-7
9: 3-4-8
10: 3-4-7-12

4x2x3x4 = 96 x .50 = $48

SANTA ANITA

POST-SCRATCHES

3rd: S/ALW, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Buckingham Bull 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #5 Marina Del Heat 10-1 WON ($20.40)
Next Best: #7 Intoxicating Move 8-1 3rd

4th: CLM, 3yo, 7f, (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 One Firm Cat 2-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Money Cannon 5-2 WON ($8.80)
Exotics Use: #5 I Don’t Care Who 4-1 5th

5th: MSW, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Nicegirlsfinishlast 3-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Passionate Diva 5-2 WON ($7.60)
Best Value: #6 Sealington 12-1 7th
Exotics Use: #1 Shrilanka 3-1 3rd

6th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 1m (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Amulay 2-1 WON ($7.20)
Best Value: #8 Totally Blonde 15-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Dolphin Shorts 8-5 Non-starter
Exotics Use: #6 Summers Dignity 8-1 8th

7th: CLM, F&M-4+, 1m-T (DD)

Most Likely: #2 Bares Tripper LATE SCR
Best Value: #8 Lady Katfish 8-1 6th
Next Best: #5 Tebowing 5-2 8th
Exotics Use: #1 Pebble Beach Baby 12-1 4th

8th: MCLM/$20k, F&M-3+, 7f (Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #7 Magic Number 7-2 2nd
Next Best: #6 Magic Maya 4-1 WON ($17.40)
Best Value: #3 Rsweet Serendipity 12-1 –
Exotics Use: #5 Chumash 3-1 5th
Super Add: #9 Renegade Ride 5-2 3rd

<$200 P6 Play:

3: 4
4: 2-5
5: 1-5-6-8
6: 4
7: 2/SCR-8
8: 3-6-7

1x2x4x1x2x3 = 48 x $2 = $96

<$75 P4 Play:

5: 1-5-6-8
6: 1-4-6-8
7: 2/SCR-8
8: 3-6-7

4x4x2x3 = 96 x .50 = $48