CHURCHILL DOWNS

POST-SCRATCHES

8th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Two to Tango 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #1 Sweet On You 6-1 6th
Next Best: #6 Town Flirt 9-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Moonlight Caper 3-1 7th

9th: OC/N2X, 3+, 9f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #5 Any Given Royal 8-1 6th
Next Best: #6 Tazz 3-1 8th
Exotics Use: #7 Depeche Chat 5-2 5th
Super Add: #10 Ptolemaic 15-1 2nd

10th: CLM, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #6 Drum Roll 6-1 6th
Next Best: #9 Marchwood 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Montezuma Express 8-1 WON ($9.40)
Super Add: #7 Weekend Wildcat 30-1 8th

11th: 132nd Clark H. (G1), 3+, 9f (DD)

Best Value: #3 Bourbon Courage 8-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Will Take Charge 9-5 WON ($6.80)
Exotics Use: #6 Easter Gift 12-1 3rd
Super Add: #1 Game On Dude 8-5 2nd

12th: MSW, F&M-3+, 1m-T (Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #8 Civility Pledge 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #1 Bermuda Lane 10-1 9th
Next Best: #3 Belle Natalie 5-2 7th
Exotics Use: #4 SCR

<$75 P5 Play:

8: 1-4-6
9: 5-6
10: 1-6-9
11: 1-3-6-7
12: 1-8

3x2x3x4x2 = 144 x .50 = $72

<$50 P4 Play:

9: 5-6
10: 1-6-9
11: 1-3-4-6-7
12: 1-3-8

2x3x5x3 = 90 x .50 = $45

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: 7th NYSS-Staten Island, F&M-3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Vicki’s Dancer 5-1 WON ($10.80)
Next Best: #1 Kelli Got Frosty 3-1 4th
Best Value: #4 P J’s Superego 10-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Familyofroses 12-1 2nd

$1 Exacta (3-7) Paid $67.50
$1 Trifecta (3-7-4) Paid $453.00
$1 Superfecta (3-7-4-1) Paid $1,401.00

7th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

As discussed with Nick Tammaro Friday on ATR, Bakken may have tons of upside, but this is a field of tough, experienced runners that could come at him in waves. He may be special, but will have to prove it..

Most Likely: #9 Bakken 1-1 WON ($2.80)
Best Value: #1 Sokitumi Samurai 12-1 8th
Next Best: #11 Truth Is 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #8 Crackerjack Jones 10-1 5th

8th: 7th NYSS-Thunder Rumble, 3+, 7f (DD)

Significant SCR’s here as Smooth Bert & Ultimate Empire both come out..

Most Likely: #2 Chapman 7-2 4th
Best Value: #4 Readbytheline 8-1 8th
Next Best: #3 West Hills Giant 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Commandante 5-1 WON ($9.30)

9th: CLM, F&M-3+, 6f

Pace edge for ‘Easterbaby’..

Most Likely: #4 My Pink Easterbaby 7-2 12th
Best Value: #11 Inspeightofthegold 12-1 6th
Next Best: #12 Fiftyfour Forever 9-2 11th
Exotics Use: #3 Seven Dreams 8-1 8th

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-3
7: 1-9-11
8: 2-3-4-8-10
9: 3-4-11-12

2x3x5x4 = 120 x .50 = $60

DELTA DOWNS

POST-SCRATCHES

Delta strip never moved off of fast designation last night and 50% chance of rain remains in place today. ‘Sabine Sand’ surface takes moisture and dries well, but being on or near the lead seems imperative here no matter what the condition..

4th: 9th Sam’s Town-R, 3yo, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Black Bear 5-1 5th
Best Value: #9 Request a Puck 12-1 6th
Next Best: #5 Heitai 2-1 7th
Exotics Use: #6 One Man’s King 12-1 4th

5th: 11 Delta Mile, 3+, 1m (P3, DD)

Best Value: #2 Alsvid 10-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Agent Di Nozzo 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Grand Contender 8-1 WON ($23.60)
Super Add: #3 Uncaptured 7-2 3rd

6th: 11th Delta Princess (G3), 2yo-F, 1m (P3, DD)

For austerity purposes in the P4, will hope one of the two pacesetters stays on..

Most Likely: #4 Bahnah 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Miss Behaviour 2-1 5th
Best Value: #7 Appreciating 6-1 7th
Exotics Use: #6 Concave 7-2 3rd

7th: 11th Delta Jackpot (G3), 2yo, 1m (P5, P3, DD)

As discussed on ATR this week, Calder runners notoriously successful over this track and Casiguapo held own facing top juvies in Hopeful/Champagne..

Most Likely: #8 Casiguapo 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #10 Rise Up 3-1 WON ($6.20)
Best Value: #7 Rankhasprivileges 15-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Coastline 5-2 6th

<$50 P4 Play:

4: 2-5-9
5: 1-2-4
6: 3-4
7: 2-4-7-8-10

3x3x2x5 = 90 x .50 = $45

HOLLYWOOD PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: MCLM/$30k, 2yo-F, 6f (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #9 Another Victoria 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #2 Tiz Bliss 6-1 6th
Next Best: #4 Mini Candy 3-1 9th
Exotics Use: #3 U R Lucky 15-1 4th

5th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Depreciable 7-2 WON ($6.40)
Best Value: #8 Romeo Royale 6-1 8th
Next Best: #4 Husband’s Folly 9-2 9th
Exotics Use: #6 Major Magic 4-1 7th

6th: MCLM/$50k, 2yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Note that Nancy Wake in 4th is a bit of a referendum on the race #10 A P Pepper exits..

Best Value: #3 Pretty Storm 9-2 5th
Next Best: #7 La Casadora 7-2 9th
Exotics Use: #6 D’ya Knowwhatimean 8-1 WON ($14.20)
Super Add: #8 Browsing 5-1 2nd

7th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6f-T (P3, DD)

SCR 7-11-12-14 which gets 13-15 in to event..

Best Value: #1 Sweet as a Rose 10-1 8th
Next Best: #4 Salsita 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Lust for Life 15-1 6th
Super Add: #2 Famous Alice 4-1 WON ($5.20)

8th: 8th Real Quiet, 2yo, 8.5f (DD)

Most Likely: #8 Beach Hut 7-2 7th
Best Value: #2 Electric Eddie 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Life Is a Joy 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Green Mask 3-1 3rd

9th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f (Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #8 Afflication 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #6 Whipstock 5-1 7th
Next Best: #3 Red Sharp Humor 9-2 5th
Exotics Use: #4 Bobby Handy 5-1 6th
Super/Hi-5: #10 Barney Rebel 20-1 8th

<$150 P6 Play:

4: 2-9
5: 7
6: 3-6-7
7: 1-4-8
8: 8
9: 3-4-6-8

2x1x3x3x1x4 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 3-6-7
7: 1-2-4-8
8: 2-8
9: 3-4-6-8

3x4x2x4 = 96 x .50 = $48

Modest $19k carryover at AQU Thursday on a very treacherous sequence that features 3 inscrutable maiden claiming events. Don’t forget the $85k Super Hi-5 C/O at HOL later too (7:05pm ET)..

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: MCLM/$40k, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD)

Very tricky start to P6 with group that largely looks the same. Theatre Star is eligible to be much better now than in spring and likewise, I’m Smokin Hot makes potent first start as 3yo here. SCR #3 All in Favor who ran unsuccessfully at LRL Wednesday..

Best Value: #2 Theatre Star 9-2
Next Best: #5 Sundae School 4-1
Exotics Use: #7 I’m Smokin Hot 7-2
Super Add: #10 Elissa Town 8-1

5th: OC/S-ALW, 3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Moments Notiz 9-5
Best Value: #7 Island Sunset 8-1
Next Best: #8 Tummel 7-2
Exotics Use: #1e Rice entry 2-1

6th: NY-MCLM/$35k, 2yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

2nd MCLM set and a bit of a mess. Feels like someone can control this on or near lead and Lucky Nancy E. may just be the right candidate for that having shown speed in 4 prior turf sprint starts. Certainly eligible for main track success by Disco Rico and out of productive Generazio mare by Unbridled..

Most Likely: #8 Lucky Nancy E. 9-2
Best Value: #10 Aviendra 8-1
Next Best: #4 Here Comes Stoney 10-1
Exotics Use: #11 Talk to Me 12-1

7th: CLM, 3+, 1m-T (P3, DD)

Best Value: #6 Thomas Hill 6-1
Next Best: #11 Becky’s Kitten 5-2
Exotics Use: #10 Liquidity Trap 5-1
Super Add: #3 Foolish Tiger 7-2

8th: NY-OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 1m (DD)

Royal Suspicion looks to sit ideal trip behind dueling speeds What the Frost and She’s Stones Sis.

Most Likely: #4 Royal Suspicion 7-2
Best Value: #1 Victoryat Last 10-1
Next Best: #2 Bit Bustin 6-1

9th: NY-MCLM/$20k, 3+, 1m-OFF THE TURF

Most Likely: #5 Privatize 4-1
Best Value: #15 Ten Ed 7-2
Next Best: #4 Easy Street 2-1
Exotics Use: #10 National Buck 5-2

<$150 P6 Play:

4: 2-5-7
5: 1-3-7-8
6: 8
7: 6-11
8: 4
9: 4-5-15

3x4x1x2x1x3 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 4-8-10-11
7: 3-6-10-11
8: 4
9: 4-5-10-15-16

4x4x1x5 = 90 x .50 = $45

HOLLYWOOD

PRE-SCRATCHES

8th: MCLM/$20k, 3+, 6f ($85k Super Hi-5 C/O)

$85k Hi-5 C/O here..

Most Likely: #7 Marino Mizer 7-2
Best Value: #6 Bringon the Wain 8-1
Next Best: #2 Angel Charge 9-2
Exotics Use: #8 Western Seeker 15-1
Super/Hi-5: #4 Sherriff Hutton 8-1

<$30 Hi-5 Play: 6-7 with 6-7 with 2-8 with 2-8 with all (2x1x2x1x7 = $28)

Good luck!
Steve

Racing was good but Churchill action didn’t produce prices as big as speculated Saturday night as winners from 3-1 to 9-2 pervaded. Predictable contenders River Seven and Emotional Kitten came through in the Commonwealth and Mrs. Revere while McPeek (Sheikinator) and Jones (Devine View) broke their maidens. Carryovers at AQU ($35k) and HOL ($110k) Sunday..

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: MSW, 2yo-F, 8.5f (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Hardly 3-1 (A) WON ($8.70)
Best Value: #5 Seeking Her Glory 6-1 (B) 2nd
Next Best: #8 Jazil’s Dream 5-2 (B) 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Crashing Conclave 20-1 (C) 10th

5th: CLM, 3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD)

Deep, tough group..

Most Likely: #3 Western Grit 5-2 (A) 2nd
Best Value: #12 Mr. G. Zee 10-1 (A) 11th
Next Best: #14 Foggy Road 3-1 (A) WON ($5.40)
Exotics Use: #5 Lucci the Lion 8-1 (B) 3rd

“C’s”: #8 Stone Rocks 15-1; #11 My Way or Dubaiway 10-1 (C)

6th: NY-OC/N2X, 3+. 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Street Game 3-1 (A) 5th
Best Value: #1 Sandy’z Slew 8-1 (B) 4th
Next Best: #6 Barrel of Love 9-2 (C) 9th
Exotics Use: #11 Why Not Whiskey 15-1 (C) 8th

7th: NY-OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Nonnie Connie 3-1 (A) 4th
Best Value: #11 Dee Dee’s Comet 12-1 (A) 2nd
Next Best: #4 Gendamour 9-2 (B) 5th
Exotics Use: #8 Ascended Fever 7-2 (B) 3rd

8th: OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f-T (DD)

Most Likely: #5 Hothersal 2-1 (A) 2nd
Next Best: #11 Big John B 6-1 (B) 6th
Best Value: #2 Dysprosium 8-1 (B) 4th
Exotics Use: #1 Cheyenne Nation 4-1 (C) WON ($10.20)

9th: MCLM/$16k, 3+, 6f

Best Value: #12 M P Ruckus Late SCR (A)
Next Best: #2 Rap d’Oro 3-1 (A) WON ($4.90)
Exotics Use: #10 St. Sincere 4-1 (B) 4th
Super Add: #8 Chief Scout 8-1 (C) 6th

<$150 P6 Play:

4: 4-5-8
5: 3-12-14
6: 2
7: 3-4-8-11
8: 5
9: 2–12/SCR

3x3x1x4x1x2 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$50 P4 Play:

6: 2
7: 3-4-5-7-8-11
8: 1-2-5-11
9: 2-8-10-12/SCR

1x6x4x4 = 96 x .50 = $48

CHURCHILL DOWNS

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: MSW, 2yo, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD)

As discussed with Marty McGee, start to a potentially explosive P5 sequence. Note many getting first dirt tries (Thunder Run, Match Up, Sheikinator) or returning to it from poly (Q Two, Bro Rodrigeaux, Dynamic Import, Tall Boy); a formula for jump up efforts. I’m going to try to tiptoe through this P5 first leg with a single of Thunder Run because if it isn’t him it could be any of 7 or 8 and there’s too many other treacherous spots in the sequence to navigate..

Most Likely: #2 Thunder Run 3-1 5th
Best Value: #4 Match Up 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Bro Rodrigeaux 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Dynamic Impact 7-2 6th

7th: 10th Commonwealth Turf (G3), 3yo, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Thoroughly wacky cast for this with too many scenarios to comprehend. As mentioned with Marty, a repeat of River Seven’s last over the squishy Woodbine lawn will beat these and there is some rain threatening Louisville today to soften the ground. Central Banker will certainly have to go from the 13 hole but Ruler of Love is likely out there to meet him into the turn. If either goes un-confronted, they will take the field a long way. Moro Tap (8-1), Golden Sabre (5-1), River Seven and insanely priced Braveman (50-1) all look to have tractable positions to take up as the major contenders. Why Battaglia thinks Braveman is a 50-1 candidate is mystifying considering his turf form is not appreciably different than that of Kaigun or Dorsett (Both 8-1). Braveman (Unbridled’s Song) was a $150k weanling at KEE November ’10 and is out of the Arch mare Anita Madden, famously named for the legendary Kentucky socialite and benefactress whose husband was the grandson of industry scion John Madden..

Best Value: #5 Moro Tap 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Golden Sabre 5-1 8th
Exotics Use: #4 River Seven 5-1 WON ($7.40)
Super Add: #8 Braveman 50-1 7th

8th: MSW, 2yo, 6.5f (P3, DD)

2nd maiden set of the sequence features cast of mostly first and second timers. Kenneally offers 2 debut colts with H Town Brown a half to fast early D’ Funnybone and Gambler’s Ghost a steady-working Ghostzapper that sold progressively well as a weanling ($22k), yearling ($30k) and 2yo ($150k). McPeek offers a pair as well in 2nd time starters/first time Lasix I’mbetterthangood SCRATCHED (turning back) and Money Fan (poly to dirt) and I think it’s one of those two..

Best Value: #8 Money Fan 6-1 7th
Next Best: #4 H Town Brown 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #11 Gambler’s Ghost 5-1 5th
Super Add: #6 Divine View 5-1 WON ($12.20)

9th: 23rd Mrs. Revere (G2), 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (DD)

Like the boys, a deep group for this. Pace will be key and it looks like it will get hot. Reaching for all the interesting prices I can find that will be coming from off the pace. Note meet leading rider Lanerie lands on Marty Wolfson outsider E B Ryder..

Most Likely: #8 Nellie Cashman 9-2 6th
Best Value: #3 Zero Game 30-1 14th
Next Best: #12 Dance Again 30-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #14 E B Ryder 30-1 12th
Super Add: #9 Remember Then 12-1 13th

10th: CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #10 Ouiser 9-5 5th
Best Value: #1 Sluiceway 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #12 Picture Me Mad 7-2 WON ($13.40)
Exotics Use: #4 Blissful Gold 5-1 7th
Hi-5 Play: #6 Borrowed Money 12-1 6th

<$50 P5 Play:

6: 2
7: 1-4-5-8
8: 4-8
9: 3-8-9-11-12-14
10: 1-10

1x4x2x6x2 = 96 x .50 = $48

<$50 P4 Play:

7: 1-4-5-8
8: 4-8
9: 3-8-9-11-12-14
10: 1-10

4x2x6x2 = 96 x .50 = $48