It’s the official start of winter for NY racing as the Aqueduct Inner Track opens today with a $21,322 P6 carryover to mark the occasion. As discussed Tuesday on ATR, Andy Serling reminds players that the Inner hasn’t been nearly as speed-biased as it was years ago. There will undoubtedly be days when speed dominates (and with the surface recently unsealed and cold temperatures, today may be one of them), but over the next 3+ months, don’t predetermine that off the pace runners can’t succeed. One maxim that plays very well here is the horse for course concept. Those that like the loose, grainy footing tend to REALLY like it, so take extra long looks at off form runners with previous success over the strip.

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: NY-OC/N2X, 3+, 1m-70y (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Tug of War 6-1
Next Best: #2 Socialsaul 3-1
Best Value: #1 Papa Tom 12-1

2nd: NY-CLM/$35k, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Nail It 3-1
Best Value: #4 Bird Hunter 8-1
Next Best: #3 Bottleofredorwhite 5-2
Exotics Use: #8 Awesome Heart 7-2

3rd: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #6 Mischief Maker 4-1
Next Best: #1 Nuffsaid Nuffsaid 2-1
Exotics Use: #2 My Place 3-1

4th: NY-MCLM/$25k, F&M-3+, 1m-70y (P6, P3, DD)

$20k P6 C/O starts here..

As established in ATR conversation with Andy, Amber Morning SCR’D a highly shaky 6-5 favorite here. Drops and adds blinkers but move to dirt the germane question..

Most Likely: #6 Sky Lassie 3-1
Exotics Use: #1 East Coast Express 5-1
Super Add: #5 Threecrackerchile 8-1

5th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 1m-70y (G/S, P3, DD)

Best Value: #10 Chilton 6-1
Next Best: #1 Hardrocker 3-1
Exotics Use: #5 Griffin Rock 7-2
Super Add: #4 Cash Your Ticket 10-1

6th: MCLM/$20k, 2yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Oltre’ Oro 5-1
Best Value: #7 Shanks for Nothin 8-1
Next Best: #6 Flying Joe 5-1
Exotics Use: #5 Bourbon Therapy 2-1

7th: OC/S-ALW, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 (POE) Moments Notiz 2-1
Best Value: #7 Escrow Kid 8-1
Next Best: #2 Head Heart Hoof 7-2
Exotics Use: #3 Royal Currier 12-1

8th: NY-OC/N1X, 3+, 9f (DD)

Most Likely: #1a Pure Attitude 8-5
Best Value: #5 Chrisandlorisposse 12-1
Next Best: #6 Saturday Appeal 8-1
Exotics Use: #8 Reaching Out 4-1

9th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 6f

Most Likely: #8 Denzel 5-2
Best Value: #6 Conticinio 10-1
Next Best: #12 Apex 6-1
Exotics Use: #3 M P Ruckus 12-1

<$100 P6 Play:

4: 1-6
5: 1-10
6: 3-5-6-7
7: 1
8: 1
9: 6-8-12

2x2x4x1x1x3 = 48 x $2 = $96

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 3-5-6-7
7: 1-7
8: 1-5-6-7-8
9: 6-8-12

4x2x5x3 = 120 x .50 = $60

Good luck!
Steve

TAMPA BAY DOWNS

POST-SCRATCHES

8th: 29th Inaugural, 2yo, 6f (P3, DD)

Didn’t handicap TAM stakes with track exec Peter Berube on ATR Friday, but #5 Callmeoldfashion (4-1) had caught my eye when looking at the card. Ricky Griffith’s Old Fashioned gelding won unveiling stylishly at WO from wide path at demanding 7f trip (Video: http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci…wo-on-11-15-13). Transition to dirt a question mark, but dam Star Operator, winner of $278k in her 29 race career, placed in both the Manatee and Minaret over this strip after success in Toronto. There’s a lot of speed involved in this, so he’ll have to come from off the pace today..

Most Likely: #5 CALLMEOLDFASHION 4-1 8th
Next Best: #8 Cool Cowboy 2-1 WON ($3.00)
Best Value: #3 Roman Officer 8-1 7th
Exotics Use: #7 Early Entry 7-2 2nd

HOLLYWOOD PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

2nd: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Baffert firsters Chitu ($300k OBS/MAR13 Henny Hughes) and The Admiral (half to Madcap Escapade) face off against experienced Melatonin. Chitu worked impressive :20.3 at sale (Video: http://obssales.com/marcatalog/2013/58.mp4) and has registered series of eye-catching drills for bow while outworking Coolmore stablemate by Giant’s Causeway that likely needs longer. Red N Black Attack debuts for O’Neill and has been plenty zippy in the a.m.

Most Likely: #1 Chitu 5-2 WON ($5.00)
Next Best: #5 Melatonin 3-1 4th
Best Value: #3 Red N Black Attack 20-1 6th
Exotics Use: #7 The Admiral 5-1 3rd

4th: CLM, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P6, P3, DD)

$150k Guaranteed P6..

Most Likely: #1 Warren’s Judy 5-1 4th
Best Value: #11 Katey Pie 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 Metaxa 6-1 WON ($9.80)
Exotics Use: #3 Cassandra Lynne 3-1 7th

5th: MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)

Maiden curiosity involves slug of turf movers and stretchouts..

Best Value: #3 Big Medicine Man 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 Miraglo 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Number Five 2-1 4th
Super Add: #7 I’ll Wrap It Up 5-2 WON ($7.80)

6th: 33rd Hollywood Starlet (G1), 2yo-F, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Final running of one of my favorite races with a solid set including troika from marred BC Juvenile Fillies cross town. Late-running Rosalind is filly to beat and wide post shouldn’t hurt given style. Untapable was one of those that lost all chance in Cup and has worked 20f since. Streaming and Taste Like Candy look to be the ones to catch in the stretch..

Most Likely: #8 Rosalind 3-1 4th
Best Value: #7 Streaming 8-1 WON ($23.60)
Next Best: #5 Untapable 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Arethusa 4-1 5th

7th: Cal-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m-OFF THE TURF (P3, DD)

Best Value: #6 Quinnette 2nd
Next Best: #5 Our Pure Creation WON ($5.80)
Exotics Use: #10 Cee’s the Year 3rd
Super Add: #8 SCR

8th: 32nd Bayakoa (G2), F&M-3+, 8.5f (DD)

Fiftyshades is fast, versatile and broke maiden over this strip. Earning plaudits for morning efforts and should prove very tough to beat here with anything close to best effort. Spellbound returns for Mandella and fits profile discussed this week on ATR of 3yo having missed large stretch of year and returning as a near-4yo. Shouldn’t be judged solely on basis of spring level as these types can make quantum advance since last seen..

Most Likely: #3 Fiftyshadesofhay 9-5 2nd
Best Value: #4 Spellbound 8-1 6th
Next Best: #2 Warren’s Veneda 9-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Curvy Cat 12-1 5th

9th: MCLM/$20k, 3+, 7f (Super Hi-5)

Slippery finale with many having had enough chances. Look for frog with least warts..

Most Likely: #9 Western Seeker 6-1 4th
Best Value: #14 Warren’s Casper 15-1 9th
Next Best: #1 Perfect Magic Man 5-2 13th
Exotics Use: #6 Trando’s Tremor 6-1 2nd
Super/Hi-5: #4 Arctic Warrior 6-1 6th

$150 P6 Play:

4: 1-8-11
5: 3-4-7-8
6: 5-7-8
7: 6
8: 3
9: 9-14

3x4x3x1x1x2 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 2-5-6-7-8
7: 5-6-10
8: 3-4
9: 1-4-6-9-14

5x3x2x5 = 150 x .50 = $75

P6 carryover hunt ended early for many with Kimmel’s Run to Mama winning the 4th and then was over for everyone else when 7# bug girl Mallory Strandberg got Ubillo’s Ruthless Alley home at 57-1 in the 5th. Washington State native Standberg is a grad from Chris McCarron’s N.A. Riding Academy and has won her share of races this year wherever she’s ridden. It was her 40th tally of 2013.

Later, Merry Meadow stayed up to nab the ALW win that was DQ’d away last time out. In the nightcap, as suggested on ATR earlier in the day, Thunder But Norain returned as a more mature late season 3yo and blasted a weak MCLM/$16k bunch. Meanwhile, Team Jacobson continued their claim box frenzy glomming 4 more runners Wednesday, including Johannesburg Smile for $100k.

Double C/O starts at $77k on another bettable sequence and nice card overall.

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

3rd: OC/N1X, 2yo-F, 7f (P3, DD)

Nice to see even a field of 6 come together for a 2yo ALW and it looks like there’s some here that have upside yet. Summertime Friend has had time since her big debut and Storm Swept from Mandy Pope/Pletcher looks to get good stalking trip inside. Jacobson sends pair of pricy claims and note effort of My Jimmy Choo Girl in opener since Alpaca Fina handled her last time out..

Most Likely: #3 Summertime Friend 9-5 3rd
Best Value: #5 Alpaca Fina 6-1 WON ($15.00)
Next Best: #2 Storm Swept 4-1 6th
Exotics Use: #6 Winekeeper 2-1 2nd

4th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P6, P3, DD)

$77k Double P6 C/O starts here..

Most Likely: #6 Darnley Bay 3-1 (A) 4th
Best Value: #2 Morethanvictorious 12-1 (B) 2nd
Next Best: #8 Midnightinpositano 7-2 (B) WON ($11.40)
Exotics Use: #7 Mrs. Bean 5-2 (C) 6th

5th: OC/S-ALW, 3+, 8.5f-T (G/S, P3, DD)

Quirky assembly but with pace almost certainly fast, compelled to use some that will be running late..

Best Value: #6 Loveisheartandsoul 10-1 (A) 4th
Next Best: #4 Majestic Jess 3-1 (A) WON ($10.80)
Exotics Use: #3 Wind of Bosphorus 6-1 (B) 3rd
Super Add: #7 Special Selection 10-1 (C) –

6th: MSW, 2yo-F, 1m (P4, P3, DD)

Ideally would like to get through this as narrow as possible and plenty will single Chad Brown’s Fox Hill filly U.S.S. O’Brien. May not be that simple though. Mott’s 2nd time starter numbers boost on stretchouts and Tiz So Sweet may have say in here..

Most Likely: #10 U.S.S. O’Brien 1-1 (A) 2nd
Best Value: #8 Tiz So Sweet 8-1 (B) WON ($12.20)
Next Best: #9 Spanish Gold 6-1 (C) 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Julie Napp 15-1 (C) 7th

7th: OC/S-ALW, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Trail Walker 8-5 (A) 3rd
Best Value: #7 Girl Code 5-1 (B) 5th
Next Best: #3 So Blessed 6-1 (B) 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Garmientos Girl 7-2 (C) 6th

8th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-T (DD)

Last chance of local turf season for our Toy Cannon to clear condition hurdle, but dependent as usual on pace up front..

Best Value: #3 Noosh’s Tale 10-1 (A) 5th
Next Best: #9 Toy Cannon 3-1 (A) 6th
Exotics Use: #5 Madam I’m Adam 7-2 (B) 4th
Super Add: #7 Mississippi Duel 4-1 (B) WON ($7.70)

9th: MCLM/$16k, 3+, 6f

Best Value: #4 Proper Impulse 8-1 (A) 2nd
Next Best: #5 Mi Hijo 9-5 (A) WON ($5.20)
Exotics Use: #6 Gridiron Great 2-1 (B) 7th
Super Add: #9 Papa Doc 8-1 (C) 4th

<$150 P6 Play:

4: 2-6-8
5: 3-4-6
6: 8-10
7: 6
8: 3-9
9: 4-5

3x3x2x1x2x2 = 72 x 2 = $144

<$50 P4 Play:

6: 8-10
7: 3-6-7
8: 3-5-7-9
9: 4-5-6-9

2x3x4x4 = 96 x .50 = $48

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD)

Deep, well-matched NYB group to start C/O sequence with 5-2 favorite The Lady Says Yes solid, but not appreciably better than the next half dozen on the totem. 5-1 players As Well and Miz Owell have been better than the ML choice in fact, but are out-posted. Chow Fun (10-1) is well drawn for run back to 11/2 breakout effort and can adjust to pace kicking off the skein with a bang..

Best Value: #2 Chow Fun 10-1 (A) 3rd
Next Best: #4 The Lady Says Yes 5-2 (A) 4th
Exotics Use: #9 As Well 5-1 (B) 5th
Super Add: #10 Miz Owell 5-1 (B) 7th

5th: CLM, 3+, 1m (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Prudent Investor 7-2 (A) 5th
Next Best: #7 Bemata 5-2 (A) 3rd
Best Value: #5 Strong Defense 6-1 (B) 4th
Exotics Use: #11 Tricky Slam 5-1 (C) 6th

6th: NY-MCLM/$25k, 2yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Archer Queen (6-1) represents my favored Triple Whammy (Dropping down, cutting back, turf-to-dirt) but will need to run down loose Recovered (12-1) who showed speed in debut and now gets blinkers and Chucky Lopez.. a recipe for a jailbreak away from the gate..

Most Likely: #9 Archer Queen 6-1 (A) 8th
Best Value: #10 Recovered 12-1 (B) 4th
Next Best: #2 Possetivevibration 10-1 (C) 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Livininthefastlane 4-1 (C) 5th

7th: OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Talent N Passion is the speed but Sister City a fat 12-1 and gets 7# from her while poised outside for stalk and go voyage. Merry Meadow cleared condition having been DQ’d last time and was within 2L of Comely runner-up Toasting in October. No bargain at 2-1 with this tough group. Speaking of Toasting, famously streaky Albertrani going well right now and Superior Sarah may be coming up to good one 3rd (quasi) off the layoff. My Sparky’s race 2 back would be very competitive here too..

Best Value: #8 Sister City 12-1 (A) 4th
Next Best: #4 Merry Meadow 2-1 (A) WON ($3.50)
Exotics Use: #3 Superior Sarah 10-1 (B) 2nd
Super Add: #5 My Sparky 12-1 (C) 6th

8th: OC/N2X, 3+, 1m-T (DD)

Well-matched group of ALW foes, many of whom exit foggy affair 17 days ago (won by Cheyenne Nation) or have each other over the course of the year. Mia Poppy is the pacemaker from inside, but several here have shown ability to close into modest splits. 7yo Compliance Officer not what he once was, but placement here seems appropriate and he has speed to stay within striking distance of the leader. Bruce Kravets returns with capable Bo Strikes Back. Note that AE #12 Non Stop a serious player if drawing in..

Best Value: #8 Bo Strikes Back 8-1 (A) 6th
Next Best: #1 Tiz Gianni 6-1 (B) 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Compliance Officer 5-1 (B) WON ($11.20)
Super Add: #7 Unbridled Fire 10-1 (C) 5th

9th: MCLM/$16k, 3+, 1m

Cheapish MCLM event as finale and you almost have to hang your hat on Street Prince SCR’D who plunges and has races on his resume that are far better than anything anyone else has shown so far..

Best Value: #2 Thunder But Norain 12-1 (A) WON ($9.80)
Next Best: #4 St. Sincere 7-2 (A) 5th
Exotics Use: #10 Muscles Marinara 6-1 (B) 6th
Super Add: #9 Flashy Ross 15-1 (C) 9th

<$150 P6 Play:

4: 2-4
5: 1-7
6: 9
7: 3-4-8
8: 1-2-8
9: 2-4

2x2x1x3x3x2 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 9-10
7: 3-4-5-8
8: 1-2-3-5-7-8
9: 2-4-10

2x4x6x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

Long Holiday Weekend continued Friday with thrillers at Churchill and Hollywood as Will Take Charge edged game Game On Dude in the Clark and Silentio outbobbed Summer Front in the Citation. Fold in Majestic Stride’s Underwood win at HOL Thanksgiving Day and it looks like exiting Breeders’ Cup runners are fairing pretty well.

Saturday offers 9 graded stakes with the tremendous Cigar Mile — including BC players Groupie Doll, Goldencents, Flat Out, Verrazano, Private Zone, Laugh Track, Capo Bastone) as the centerpiece. Juveniles co-star at the Big A as well of course with the Remsen and Desmoiselle, while the Stars of Tomorrow II meet-ender at Churchill showcases more than 130 juveniles highlighted by 10 Golden Rod and 11 KY Jockey Club participants. Gulfstream’s winter season kicks off today with turfy 2yo’s in the Pulpit and Wait a While and Hollywood’s Turf Festival continues with babies contesting lawn miles in the Generous and Miesque.

Hope everyone is enjoying the great stretch of action. Headed to Aqueduct later this morning, so a few quick thoughts in writing to go along with Weekend Preview ATR expressions…

AQUEDUCT

PRE-SCRATCHES

6th: 92nd Desmoiselle (G2), 2yo-F, 9f (G/S, P3, DD)

Though fast and talented, there is no guarantee Stopchargingmaria enjoys the additional furlong as much as the first 8. As Nick Tammaro opined Friday on ATR, everyone else lined up against her here is better designed for the 9f trip and someone could jump up and by her..

Most Likely: #6 Stopchargingmaria 8-5 WON ($3.90)
Best Value: #2 Lexi Morgan 12-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Got Lucky 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 America 5-1 5th

7th: 64th Comely (G3), 3yo-F, 9f (P4, P3, DD)

Repositioning of this event and Gazelle a clever gambit by NYRA racing office, but in face of so many good events, G3 has been glossed over in lead up to big weekend. Wedding Toast the filly to beat amidst 3 race ascendency, but there is no shortage of pace pressure types signed on to keep her company the whole way around, especially blinkers-added Sheer Drama. Flash Forward (20-1) has enjoyed terrific campaign and gets cozy rail draw for behind-the-speed voyage under newly-added Saez..

Best Value: #1 Flash Forward 20-1 6th
Next Best: #7 Sheer Drama 10-1 8th
Exotics Use: #2 Wedding Toast 8-5 WON ($3.40)
Super Add: #4 My Happy Face 7-2 4th

8th: 25th Cigar Mile H. (G1), 3+, 1m (P3, DD)

Exceptional cast turns out for 25th running of this fall standard and there is too much speed involved not to be looking for those that will be running late off stalking and closing trips. Though jockey machinations don’t mean that much to me overall, Rosario commitment to Forty Tales (10-1) worth noting given their record together. Out of a daughter of the winner of this event’s inaugural running (Forty Niner), Forty Tales has ideal profile suited to 7-8f. Experiment down the hill at Santa Anita proved a disaster and Capo Bastone (20-1) will be the most under-bet of the Breeders’ Cup runners involved here. Reunites with Irad Ortiz who rode him to the King’s Bishop heroics. Only 2 horses offer potent turn back angle in this spot: Flat Out (6-1) and Saratoga Snacks (12-1). The last time Flat Out went one turn out of a route in April, he was exiting the New Orleans and unleashed his career best 116 Beyer performance in the Westchester. Saratoga Snacks gutted out the 9f Empire Classic 6 weeks ago but is more suited to this voyage, could sit an idyllic trip stalking the sprint speed and stay on well..

Most Likely: #2 Forty Tales 10-1 6th
Next Best: #9 Flat Out 6-1 WON ($15.00)
Best Value: #6 Capo Bastone 20-1 10th
Exotics Use: #7 Saratoga Snacks 12-1 8th

9th: 100th Remsen (G1), 2yo, 9f (DD)

Top pair look interchangeable and clear from rest of this set with KMc’s Cairo Prince the one Shug’s Honor Code will have to catch and pass..

Most Likely: #4 Honor Code 9-5 WON ($3.60)
Next Best: #9 Cairo Prince 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #2 Master Lightening 15-1 5th
Exotics Use: #1 SCR

10th: CLM, 3+, 6f

Most Likely: #11 Winning Touch 8-5 WON ($4.70)
Best Value: #7 Cactus City Road 12-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Hebert Hall 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Luxury Appeal 8-1 5th

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-2-4-7
8: 2-4-6-7-9-10
9: 4-9
10: 6-7-11

4x6x2x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

$0.50 Pick 4 (2,10/9/1,4/11) Paid $39.60