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Originally Posted by Unbridled
I'd prefer that there wasnt a change from dirt to polytrack, but there's no changing that. I agree that the tracks should go to a deeper surface ala Oklahoma as a possible solution (did it ever come up as one?), but its not going to happen b/c tracks are so focused on fast times and huge Rags/Beyers. Yes, horses break down on turf, but look at your examples, they are far more rare than those on dirt tracks: Up An Octave (Keeneland April '06), Funfair (Breeders Cup '05) Landseer (Breeders Cup '02???)-could be do to less turf racing, but I dont recall them being a frequent on those on the dirt. I believe its a step in the right direction and I have spoken to a few top trainers about it, Biancone likes it so much that he keeps his horses at Keeneland and Turfway (when not up at the Spa) b/c his horses respond to it so well and it keeps them healthy. I have no answer for the Lawyer Rons that dont take to it, it is unfortunate and thats a credible point. One of the reasons that horses dont "fire" over it is b/c a sprinter cant stretchout from 6F to 8.5F over the polytrack b/c it requires stamina versus running on a dirt track that is similar to concrete. Lemons Forever winner didnt "spin her wheels", she was closing very well in that minor stakes race as she was beaten just 1 length and that mile race set her up prefectly for the Oaks. Thats a valid example-Stream Cat is another. Agreed not a lot of horses have made a huge impact coming from Turfway to other tracks, but that's always been the case b/c Turfway is a lower tier track compared to Keeneland, and the Florida, NY, and Cal tracks.
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Lemons did spin her wheels, I watch races for a living and remember that race well if you wanna debate it. She wasnt closing, she was under a drive for half a mile as the jock tried to get her to run but she only ran in small spots. I wagered on her that day, and remember it well. One paced and unable to accelerate. Biancone is a great guy and a great trainer, but hardly the guy to quote as an authority on it. Patrick has long been known as a guy who drills the **** out of his horses, which has lead to so many of his great two year olds being done before fall, nuch less age three. Of course Patrick would want it, it suits his training style, which is to basically train the hell out of them.
There isn't any way that all tracks are gonna make the switch. A few will hold back and I can gurantee you this, it will be the demise of california racing Unbridled, worse than it is now. If you think that owners are gonna put up a lot of cash to buy expensive horses and race them there for long, no way. A sound horse is no good if its not a valuable horse. I know whats going to happen, so does everyone. They will run horses out there, and if they show no ability on Poly, they will be promptly shipped East to race on dirt. Its the only logical move. Everyone already knows about the Lemons and Lawyer Rons. Then the fields will REALLY be small, because the only options will realy be one and the same, poly and turf.
The tracks that take a wait and see attitude will prevail in the end. Turfway and smaller cheaper tracks that focus on cheap claiming races to fill their cards may indeed be well served by it, keeps the old cripples sounder and they can make more starts. But if you think that trainers won't bail out of the all poly venues with top horses whose form goes down on Poly, or on horses they think have talent but arent showing it on Poly, you are kidding yourself. They will bail to the nearest major venue that races on dirt and have huge divisions.