The 1-7-8 are MTO and we are expecting nice weather. If we stay on the grass here are my thoughts:
My take is that the race is devoid of any speed except the 3. TC has never run close to the pace, this is the first time with blinkers on. Maybe he can stay within 4-5 lengths of the 3 and still have enough gas with his late close.
The 3 is a lightly raced 4yo who won is maiden on the grass in Jan, then came back on a off the turf race in Feb. That effort was a game 4th where he set hot early fractions in the slop of 22.76/46.26/111.19 where he weakened. Ran a bullet 4 f work 47 4/5 1 of 39. Kieran is 96 rating in his 3rd start, 93 rating on 1st off layoff, and a 94 rating on the turf.
TC Has back class that certainly as good as the 3 and his Timeform figs are equal to the 3. Mott is good % with first off layoff but less than average Blink on %
The 7 is a MTO and we should stay on the grass for the race
The 5 is a turfer who has some back class and has run low 80's perf figs compared to TC's mid to high 80's. He will try to stay with the leader but
The 10 is a grass horse with same back class #'s and mid 80 perf #'s.
My prediction is 3 wires the field with no real early speed pressure, the 5 just stays 2-3 lengths behind him and battles TC for runner up spot as long as we stay on the grass.
As for betting, the 3 will get bet even lower than his 2-1 ML with the defections of the MTO's, and TC will get a lot of play just based on the Mott/ Alvarado connection. Tough to make any $$$ playing the 3-4 ex or even a 3-4-5 tri. But I will probably play TC across the board loading up more on place $
But I will be there in person at Belmont so I hope we great great weather and see other DT owners!
