Sunday, August 4
Was going to attack the early Pick 4, but scratches have turned it into a much less interesting sequence and one where it's probably best to just play a chalky ticket and punch it several times. That's no fun, so let's dive into the late Pick 4 instead.
8th: The running line for #7 Indian Splendor's last race doesn't do justice how impressive she was. She broke like a rocket and was well clear early, but then began to blow the turn and lost the lead, continued to run wide throughout and still absolutely dominated her field. That was obviously a much weaker group, but a similar effort would make her tough in here, especially since she also should be able to dictate the pace and it's worth noting that Castellano gets off several other contenders to ride her for Servis. #3 Strategic Missile is a little win shy, but she always shows up with her race and is probably in the best form of her career right now. It's fair to question whether she's a little better going longer, but she was 3rd twice at 25-1 at this distance last summer, once behind Madame Giry and once behind Sounds of the City. #6 Normandy chased an extremely fast opening 1/4 last out from which the pacesetter ended up last, beaten 22 lengths and was only beaten 2 3/4 probably going a little further than she wants. She's dangerous on the cutback, but Rosario will have to get her to lay off the top choice early.
9th: Small but interesting version of the Vandy and the bottom line is if #3 Delaunay shows up with his good race, he's going to win. His three races prior to his last all beat this field and he was significantly compromised at the start when losing to Gentlemen's Bet in Iowa. But Amoss has sounded less than thrilled with the way he's looked getting over the track in the AM and as others have noted, this barn has had multiple no-shows in big stakes already this meet, most notably Mylute in the Jim Dandy. He's the A and much the horse to beat, but I'm also including #2 Gentlemen's Bet and #4 Justin Phillip, the latter of whom should be a square price coming off of a poor effort over the quirky CRC surface and a pace-compromised loss in the True North.
10th: #8 Tahoe Lake is going to be a pretty short price in here and there's little doubt that his form he showed towards the end of 2012 would win this. But his return race was nothing to write home about and he's 2-for-20 with 11 minor placings with one of those wins coming via DQ. #1 Bell by the Ridge wasn't good last out either, but ran big when 2nd two back, beating the favorite in the process and is a must-use. #6 Majestic Raffy was unable to catch Plainview 8 days ago, but ran a respectable race and note that his 17-1 victory at Saratoga last summer came on 6 days' rest. I also think #5 Share Out is worth a look at a big price, as he ran a very good 3rd at 38-1 at this level and distance last summer and goes out 3rd off the layoff.
11th: I've had enough of #1 Face the Race, who's had two chances now to get back to his 3/22 GP effort and has been a no-excuse loser as the favorite both times. I prefer #5 Eleven Bravo, a 3YO who moved forward in his 2nd start and could do so again, #7 Campogiovanni, whose race two back would win this and #9 Polaris Dream, who's coming off a career top effort and gets a positive rider switch for connections who don't get bet. I'll throw in turf-meant longshots #3 Elroi and #8 Key Decision as well.
$.50 3,6,7/2,3,4/1,5,6,8/3,5,7,8,9 $90
$1 7/3/1,6,8/5,7,9 $9
Race 10 $1 DBL 6/9
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