Thursday, August 1
Early Pick 4:
3rd: It's not often you'll hear this, but Eugene Reiff has the clear horse to beat in this race. #5 Perfect Danger's last two races were big efforts, particularly his last one on 7/6, when he matched strides early with Mentor Cane, who returned to set the pace in a speed-laden Amsterdam. Needless to say, there are no comparable pace rivals in this spot, so he should have little problem making the lead and will be tough to reel in cutting back to six panels. #1 Apex has multiple figures that would make him competitive, so he should be used defensively, but he's been a pretty big disappointment since since his back-to-back placings behind Palace Malice and Micromanage last summer and he was awful 12 days ago in the Miraculousmo MSW. #2 Deadicated Deal was way better than him and finally got back to his good debut race from 4/27, when he was a closing 3rd at 20-1. If Perfect Danger gets pressured more than expected, he's most likely to benefit and will be a square price.
4th: Here we have another scenario like last Friday's 5th race wherein several contenders come out of an aberrantly high BSF race, this time the 7th from closing day at BEL. The winner was a firster for Matthew Peebles who went off at 47-1 and supposedly ran a 76 to win. Thnxtomyuncle ran 5 points higher than his top in running 2nd and, to quote Andy Serling, he's the type who would find a way to run 2nd to me in a horse suit. One More Chief was 3rd and supposedly ran a 73 in his debut for Mike Shevy. Here are the three horses behind them who'd started before:
Horse Finish Beaten Lengths Previous Top 7/14 BSF
Horatio 4th 1 58 73
Hooked Forever 5th 1 1/2 59 72
Saltine Warrior 6th 2 1/2 48 69
Based on that, #5 Native Singer is a deserving favorite, as his figures for his 7/4 race are easily legitimized when looking at the surrounding numbers of the horses who ran behind him. That being said, he's no superstar and there are a few price opportunities in here. It doesn't look like it on paper, but #6 Mr. G. Zee jumped forward significantly in his last start, making a wide close into a modest pace to be 2nd and galloping out well past the winner. He could get a more contentious pace to run at today and note that Schettino hikes him back into straight NY-bred maidens after offering him for a tag last out. When we last saw #3 Privatize on dirt, he was dueling through a crazy fast pace on the AQU Inner 3/16 in a race that totally collapsed. Street Lord, part of that early battle, returned to beat Native Singer and improve his BSF 17 points in his next start. Big Breesy sandwiched his pace-affected 11 BSF with a 40 and a 66 (turf), Dark Roast surrounded his 36 with a 59 and 64, Joe Mooch followed his 52 up with a 58 and two starts later ran a 70 when wiring the field Mr. G. Zee comes out of. Privatize has a 113-day layoff to contend with, but he gets to go one turn for the first time and blew out 3/8 in :35 Monday. I'll also use #2 One More Chief, as even though I think his debut fig is 10-12 points too high, it was still a good effort, as he took pace pressure on the rail every step of the way and still stayed on well late. I'll use #1 Thnxtomyuncle as a C in case he gets a pace meltdown and Mr. G. Zee isn't good enough.
5th: Another legitimate favorite here in #8 Rapid Burn, already faster than these and taking a big class drop for George Weaver, so I won't go too deep trying to beat him. #5 Smart Power wasn't bad in his local race last year, got laid up for 324 days after that, but returned with an OK 4th in a CNL MSW 7/13. Now the trainer sees fit to ship him up here after that effort and he shows an eye-popping :58.77 turf breeze around dogs from last Friday, a full two seconds (!) faster than the next quickest work at the distance. #4 Trusted Choice deserves another chance on the turf, being by Langfuhr out of a Giant's Causeway mare. He chased MGSP Film Shot in his lone grass try, wasn't seen for 465 days after that, now makes his 3rd start off that long layoff and stretches out after two foundation sprints. #1 Buckwheat drops for Maker/Ramsey/Rosario after setting the pace against much tougher, has a right to improve as a lightly-raced 3YO. #3 Tapulous has competitive dirt figures, but his lone turf race was his worst effort and his breeding is all dirt. Contessa scratched out of a main track spot where he likely would've gone favored, so maybe he knows something we don't, but this colt has had a lot of chances and he's likely to face pace pressure from Buckwheat and Fullcontrol if Maragh decides to send. I'll use him and #10 Carjon Carjon, returning off a long layoff for the sneaky McPeek, as C's.
6th: Not much to say here. There are three who can win: #1 Night Maneuver, #2 Saratoga Snacks and #3 Saginaw. Not a great betting race, but should be a fun battle between some high-quality NY-breds; obviously the home team is Gary Sciacca's Tale of the Cat ridgling.
$.50 1,2,5/2,3,5,6/1,4,5,8/1,2,3 $72
$.50 5/1,3,5,6/8/1,2,3 $6
$.50 5/3,5,6/3,10/1,2,3 $9
$1 5/3,5,6/8/1,2,3 $9
Race 3 $4 EXA 5/2
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