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Originally Posted by King Glorious
The three previous ones were Selkirk, Catrail, and Charnwood Forest. Selkirk and Charnwood Forest were both good milers. Selkirk had won the the QE II the year before and in the year he won the Challenge, he had a couple of group two wins and placings in the Sussex and QE II. He was really good. Charnwood Forest was a cut below the best. He had won another group two but in couldn't quite get over the hump in group ones, finishing second three times (Palace, Lockinge, Sussex). Catrail was strictly a sprinter who's only previous stakes win came at 6f in a group three.
The Goodwood race was very odd for Araafa. It seemed like maybe the fast pace did him in. They went in 1:36 that day, pretty fast for a European mile. The thing that I like about Araafa is that if u look at his last four, the comment line says he's gone to the lead around the 6-7f mark. That's what I remember about the QE II race. I thought at the 6f mark he was home free but that last quarter found him wanting, not surprising to me since that race is more like a 10f test of stamina due to the course layout there.
Echo of Light is one that I'm going to take a stand against also. Like Sleeping Indian, he doesn't have a grade one win or even a placing on his resume. In his two tries in grade one company, he has finished 15th and last (at 10f though) and then he was 6th of seven at a mile. The consistency of his Timeform numbers says he should be able to compete with the best in here but I just don't get that feeling. It was encouraging to see him rate in his last but the company he kept in that race was even below grade two standards in my opinion. It is a race that Decorated Hero won before running third in the 1997 Mile and Domedriver won it before winning the 2002 Mile so there is some back history but for the most part, in my opinion, it's one of the weaker grade two races they have. Even though Araafa bombed at Goodwood, he still finished four in front of Echo of Light and Rob Roy, another entrant here, was five in front of Echo. I'm going to guess that trying to keep up with the usually faster American pace will find Echo of Light going backwards at the end. I think his biggest advantage might be the footing as u mentioned.
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That's some thorough research, good work!
However, I have to query some of your conclusions.
Sleeping Indian is lightly-raced for a five-year-old and hasn't been the easiest to train. Seven furlongs in Europe would appear to be his optimum trip, for all that he ran with great credit when 5th in last year's Sussex and not discredited in filling the same position in the QEII. He won twice over a mile at 3, however, and I fancy that the eighth furlong around the extremely tight American tracks could be right up his street. His effort in the Foret on his penultimate outing is readily forgiven as everything went against him and, given that he made his reappearance as late as September, it is far from inconceivable that he can find more. His ability to race close up should hold him in good stead.
It would be silly to read anything into Araafa's win rate. He is evidently a far better three-year-old than he was at 2, his 2,000 Guineas run representing rock solid form. His defeat of George Washington in the Curragh proved his ability to handle heavy going and at Royal Ascot he showed himself to be equally effective on quicker ground with an impressive victory in the St James's Palace. It is glaringly obvious that Alan Munro was loathed to give Dettori (on Echo of Light) too much rope up fron in the Sussex, both as a result setting off far too fast. Both were shot to bits over a furlong out and can be forgiven the run (araafa also reportedly returned a little sore). We have Araafa's second to George Washington as his career-best effort, 3-lb in advance of the St James's win. He travelled strongly throughout, leading for much of the final 2f until George blew by. Without that opponent here he should be a deserving favourite, like Sleeping Indian his prominent style of racing should be beneficial with such a short straight.