Quote:
Originally Posted by philcski
Just out of morbid curiosity... what the hell did you like about this horse? Never seen FL shippers do particularly well at PID.
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The $76 horse was a FL shipper too. Finger Lakes shippers actually do pretty well here - even at the top levels.
$65 winner:
The horse sold for 65K at OBS (synthetic) March - a lot for a Van Nistleroy filly. It had never raced on synthetic before - I had a hunch it might like it. It was drawn inside. It's last race was clearly a throw-out - you need only look at the huge Moss Pace Figure fall-off for the opening 1/4 and gate trouble line to see that.
The trainer is 26-for-96 (27%) with a huge $3.84 ROI on synthetics. He basically KILLED them here last year. He was only 1-for-20 at this years meet - but from handicapping every race - I know that I've liked his horses very few times this meet despite looking for excuses to pick them sometimes.
He also went with Harry Vega (who he is 30% with here) instead of a low percentage Jabroni.
Basically - nothing strong to like about this horse - just a lot of subtle positives - and I HATED everyone else in the race.
Here's the 4/5 favorite who finished 2nd:
She was beaten 18 lengths when claimed for 6K from Patrick Biancone four starts back.
She's run six times on synthetic before - and dirt is her better surface.
She doesn't have the pace figures to ensure she will get to the inside and clear (which is huge)
You don't end up with positive ROI taking 4/5 shots like that - you go with the projection when you have no other sane option.