Quote:
Originally Posted by jackofhearts
Caveat being I haven't read the other posts in this thread.
So excuse me if I am repititous, and I will catch up.
Valuable article from Andy B yesterday, discussing the handicapping adjustments necessary to play the Keeneland races on the new polytrack surface.
The old speed bias is seriously dead, now replaced by a closer trend.
Riders who hustled their mounts through quick early pace have been finishing far up the track. The early fractions are now much slower(with final 1/4s somewhat quicker) as the pinheads adjust to how the new surface is playing. Turf runners who have never had main track success before are winning or doing well on the new surface(check the Spinster result and yesterday's feature).
Many people have been quick to assume that this will also drastically change the breeding industry away from producing pedigrees emphasizing precocious runners and early pace types. This could be true, however I am not as anxious to jump on that bandwagon.
Class and talent will still be just that. I expect the biggest change to be in how trainers bring along and prepare their runners. They might not be so anxious to develop that quick speed that wins early on with 2yos, favoring an easier, slower development back towards stamina. Also the way races are run and ridden will change quickly(already) and drastically more towards a Euro rider approach. Stretch runs may be much more competitive and exciting, with the smarter jocks having a greater advantage.
Hope y'all get a chance to read the article and a few of the other message board discussions about the changes from all perspectives.
I see the game changing big-time brothers, and all of you out west had better get prepared now, since this will probably affect you the most.
Other thoughts or opinions?
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I think that Hollywood is a short meet and the effects of Poly out west won't truly be felt until the Hoolywood summer meet opens which leads into Del Mar which will have poly by then.
I also see owners out there with well bred or expensive horses who don't run a lick on it not having a hell of a lot of patience.
This will lead to owners shipping horses of said horses back East for dirt racing.
I think the biggest impact it will have out there will be that several big name trainers may open stables or increase their presence in the East so that if and when this happens, that they won't lose horses completely to other trainers in the East. They will simply tell the owner that they are gonna ship the horse to their East Coast division.
I make this a very short price to happen Jackofhearts.