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Originally Posted by oracle80
Joel,
Up here in the summer our local newspaper prints the previous days handle and shows what the running total to date is as compared to the prior years handle after the same number of days.
I predicted that Keeneland would show a bump early on handle then slow down later. Can you get any stats as to where they stand in regards to handle compared to the same number of racing days last year at the fall meet?
Calder just reported a 2% increase in handle without "polytrack" at their recently concluded 112 day meet, and Fresno out in California was reporting a 4% handle increase. Since this seems to be the trend in with tracks these days, I'd predict an overall handle increase at Keeneland to be within 2-4% at meets conclusion. Anything less than that will actually be interpreted as a negative sign in this corner.
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The one thing to consider about Calder though was that they had their Festival of the Sun card last weekend and had a good handle day with all of teh stakes on the card and good weather.....I like your logic, Mike, and I think it'll play out that way....I really do because I know I won't bet Keeneland now as much as I used to hammer it.....I just won't, and I know other advanced handicappers will find an alternative too beore they give the edge they've created over the general public over the years back.....we've worked too hard to acquire a better understanding of how to play the races over teh yaesr to play on a level playingfield with casual fans - and that is exactly what Polytrack does...
I would almost lay the odds at '"pick 'em" in a handicapping contest at Keeneland with a lady spending her second day ever at a racetrack who doesn't even know how to read a program.....she seriously has as much chance as I do of making money runnng over that crap....