Right, time for Derby contender profiles. These might be a bit long. Sorry!
Before we start, it's been announced that King's Rose will not run in the Derby. I got all excited for nothing!
Anyway, it's still a great field. I'll probably try to do two of these a day. Here we go. No prizes for guessing who we'll start with...
JIMMY CHOUX
3 c Thorn Park - Cierzo
Breeder: Chouxmaani Investments Ltd.
Owner: Chouxmaani Investments Ltd.
Trainer: John Bary
Jockey: Jonathan Riddell
Starts: 15
Wins: 8
Seconds: 3
Thirds: 2
Earnings: $921,550
Major wins:
New Zealand 2000 Guineas (G1)
Great Northern Guineas (G2)
Hawke's Bay Guineas (G2)
Wakefield Stakes (G2)
Wellington Stakes (G3)
Waikato Guineas (G3)
Last start: Waikato Guineas (1st)
Best performance of the season: Waikato Guineas (1st)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YJ5tofvX9pc
Season so far:
2nd Wanganui Guineas behind Fiddler - beaten by a nose on a very wet track
1st Hawke's Bay Guineas, beating Icepin, Maradona, Cellarmaster, We Can Say It Now, He's Remarkable
1st New Zealand 2000 Guineas, beating He's Remarkable, Twilight Savings, Rememba Howe, Icepin
15th Levin Classic - eased (cardiac arrhythmia)
1st Great Northern Guineas, beating Icepin, Yin Yang Master
1st Wellington Stakes, beating Jetset Lad, He's Remarkable
1st Waikato Guineas, beating Historian, Yin Yang Master
Pedigree:
Um, not very good. Sire Thorn Park was no more than a sprinter - the longest race he ever won was just 1400m. Neither his own performance nor that of his offspring so far suggest he'll ever sire a Derby winner. Cierzo never finished in the money in a race. Her first two foals both failed to do so as well. From a pedigree point of view, Jimmy Choux should be struggling in a sprint maiden race at some rural racetrack. It just shows that sometimes a horse can completely defy what their pedigree suggests they should do. They don't know their breeding is terrible!
Positives:
- Best 3yo in NZ
- He's beaten pretty much all of these horses, and his wins against them have all been incredibly easy
- Getting better with each race
- He's just awesome
- Trainer and jockey doing very well this season
Negatives:
- Although I think he's already proven that his pedigree is irrelevant, there will be a bit of doubt over the distance until he does it. This will be the only time he runs a mile and a half in his life.
- He's been racing since September, so it's been a long campaign. But his races have been well spread out.
Current odds:
9-5 (favourite)
So can he win?
Of course he can! The only negative is the question marks over the distance, because his pedigree so strongly suggests that he should be a sprinter. But his pedigree also suggests he should be a terrible racehorse. He's ignored the ability limitations of his pedigree; why should the distance limitations be any different?
Predicted finish:
1st