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Originally Posted by oracle80
How about Lawyer Ron? Hes only earned over a mill on dirt. Lemons Forever comes to mind as well, off the board in a 100 grand polycrap race, next out wins the Oaks. Those are pretty good for starters.
If they stayed on poly they'd have been in for a tag after long.
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Lawyer Ron only ran on poly as a 2yo before he'd ever run on dirt. If he were to run on it now and struggle I'd give it some credence but because he ran so poorly on it so early he could have just improved in that first dirt race in the slop on the quirky Keeneland surface. His next start on dirt wasn't until December which for a 2yo has little relevance to how they were running 3-4 months prior. His turf races after the first dirt race were 25 points higher than all his turf starts early in his career so there is a lot of evidence that he was just simply a much better horse later in the year.
Lemons ran twice on polytrack, winning once and finishing a fast closing third in the stakes falling a length short of winning. I don't see how that is so inconsistent with her form.
I'm looking for a good example of an established dirt horse not running well. Say Happy Ticket or Spun Sugar really tank. Then I'd give some more credence to the theory that good dirt horses won't like poly. You know what though, I betcha they wind up running 1-2 because they are the best horses in the race and the best horses won't have a problem with poly.