Insightful chat as usual from Andy Beyer.
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comptonracing: Andrew, I was wondering if you would comment on Stately Victor? I myself don't think his last race was a fluke, nor do I think it was surface enhanced. With the pace set up and his style from his last race, I see a big performance coming up in the derby
Andrew_Beyer: I can't like him. I thought the Blue Grass Field was weak, and the figure was ordinary. He's never won on conventional dirt. So I think the performance was completely a synthetic track phenomenon--as the prior Blue Grass winners have been.
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Fair enough...although he did come home in a pretty good time.He may have never won on dirt but before two weeks ago he had never won on synthetic either.
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Andrew_Beyer: No, not at all. There are 11 horses in the field who have recently run speed figures between 97 and 101. I don't remember a Derby where the top numbers were so closely bunched.
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If they're closely bunched why not include a 94...
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Andrew_Beyer: I'd have to guess that someone will jump up--I wish I knew who it would be. With a very fast pace, a stretch-runner who gets a favorable trip ought to be able to run a fast race--the Monarchos scenario.
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Only a small handful of horses fit this description.