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Originally Posted by Dunbar
It depends. What's you're goal? Do you want to bet Rule to win or do you want to bet Rule to W/P? Or do you think "All Others" is the only reasonable choice for the 2nd spot?
If you wanted to bet Rule to win, then you could have looked at all the exactas where Rule is the first horse. If you bet them proportionally in a way that you collect the same thing no matter which other horse comes in 2nd (including the "All Others" option), then you are emulating a bet in the win pool. You can compare the odds you get from the exactas to the odds you get in the win pool. For example, say you have $112 to bet on Rule to win. You could have bet $1 on the Rule/MakeMusicForMe exacta, $2 on the Rule/DaveInDixie, $24 on Rule/"All Others" and proportional amounts on every other Rule/ exacta. No matter which horse comes in 2nd, you'd collect the same amount ($2132). That's 18-1 on your $112 in bets. You'd be much better off with the 24-1 from a straight win bet in the win pool. So, if you were looking for the best way to bet on Rule to win, it was definitely in the win pool. If you had strong feelings about who would come in 2nd, such as "All Others", then, yeah, maybe Rule/All Others made sense.
But if you really liked Rule to win, then trying to add a particular 2nd place horse, even if it's "All Others", is asking for later aggravation, IMO.
--Dunbar
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I do like Rule and using him as an example my point is this:
If I make a win wager on him and he makes it to the gate he must be the best of 20 horses. I get 24-1 for that chance.
If I box him with all others in the exacta he will be running against only the horses on the list that make it to the gate. I get 55-1 if he can outperform those horses anywhere on the track. If he wins the race I must hope that any of the horses on the list do not run 2nd. For that chance I get 88-1.
(actually my payoff in the last two scenarios are $55 or $88 for a total $2 investment compared to $50 for a $2 investment if he wins the race.)
Last year only five horses from pool 1 made it to the gate. Pioneer Of The Nile was 13-1 to win the race in the futures but going into the race he only needed to finish better than four others,which he did and probably paid better for a $1 exacta than he would have if he had won the race.(I don't know what the futures exacta paid.)