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Originally Posted by mbahadur
With only 12 racing days left in the meet, the tiebreaker looks definitely like it will come into play. The tiebreaker is the highest show payoff before the Breeders Cup. I will have to keep my eyes open for a potential high show payoff when selecting horses and any bridge jumper opportunities.
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I count 14 days left in the meet. Only the next 11 will count for the first tie-breaker. (But more than one person will have to survive the next 14 betting days before the tie-breaker would go into effect.)
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Originally Posted by gorvy
A quick review of the website reveals that at the current pace about 24 players will remain at the end. So, I wouldn't panic just yet. Let the others panic and see where you are the last 3 days, which is relevant for the second tie breaker.
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The average rate of loss per day since the 5th day is 11%. (Before that, large numbers of people probably lost by forgetting to pick.) If we project 11% forward another 14 days, there would still be 38 people left. Of course, that's a highly variable estimate. I don't think one of the top 2 picks has failed to show so far. Something like that would decimate the number of players.
I'll probably start looking for higher payoffs a couple of days before the BC, unless the # of remaining players is like 3 or 4.
--Dunbar