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Originally Posted by CSC
What are you basing this on? Beyer speed figures, one isolated race at Monmouth? The media hype? Isn't this the type of premature thinking of not taking into account that maybe certain horses improve as they get more exp? We know this can especially happen in the middle of a 3 yr old season. In addition she has to continually run high numbers, is it reasonable to say she can substain these races under untested conditions, you have to atleast admit(once again divorce yourself that she is a filly) that as a horse she has beaten 2 horses dueling themselves into the track in the Mother Goose and sitting off a distance challenged Munnings and a gunned out and out of element Summer Bird all on a renowned speed favoring track, race dynamics gift wrapped and tailored made to her strenghs.
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Her Preakness win is clearly her most impressive race. 2 week lay off, never raced against colts, comes off a monster G1 effort, Gets pressured every single step of the way, racing for a new trainer. You see Rachel did what Quality Road, a very very nice colt couldn't. Quality Road did what 99% of horses that aren't conditioned for, yielded to the many obstacles that faced him. I think that doesn't mitigate him as a potential terrific colt BUT when a filly overcomes pace, conditioning(remember Ole Hal Wiggins was never interested in ant TC races) and first time colts it suggests that she is well beyond just a super talented sort like QR. Now go forward off that race and look at the progression that she has made and you HAVE to recognize that she is just way better then Summer Bird.