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Originally Posted by letswastemoney
I know breeding doesn't matter once horses have established form but...
none of the horses in the race have went this far, so there is no form for 1 1/2 miles to go on. I trust a son of Birdstone more than one by Unbridled's Song going this distance.
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I think this is the key point, it's a race at 1 1/2 and dare I say not too many breeders in America book their broodmares saying 'hey let's go out and breed a horse to win the Belmont'. I can see this race being condemned even before it has been run as a mediocre race. Perhaps I see it differently however to me I am not expecting a 3 yr old this early in his/her career to run 1 1/2 and beyer 105-110 carrying 126lbs. To me a realistic number is 98 - 100. Some horses will be stretching their stamina and my approach is not finding the fastest horse but one that can stay the longest, if you look at it that way that is a talent in itself which is appreciated certainly in Europe.