Rachel Alexandra would toy with Zenyatta in a match race on dirt.
There is no way the connections of Zenyatta would possibly be stupid enough to ever agree to a match race with RA on dirt.
She has no tactical speed at all. RA would loaf on about an 8 length lead like nothing with less pressure than she's ever seen in her life .. and when it turns into an all out sprint ... you don't quicken and make up considerable ground on dirt. I'd be utterly shocked if she can make up any more than 2 or 3 of the 8 length gap late.
A match race on dirt between those two basically translates to a 3 furlong sprint with Rachel Alexandra starting with a massive head start.
While logically, RA should win that kind of race by 5 ... she could probably easily win by double digits if Zenyatta is taken out of her game and kept within contact of RA.
In that case, RA would dominate her in the late stages and Zenyatta would finish like Mine That Bird finished up in his fast paced Sunland Park races.
A match race on Pro-Ride would be a different story because horses routinely cut absurdly slow fractions under no pressure and get absolutely run over on that Pro-Ride.
The Breeders Cup Distaff is on Pro-Ride .. and there will be horses in there to keep RA honest. RA has absolutely no chance against Zenyatta on Pro-Ride in a race where she's almost certainly going to be kept from getting away with murder.
A type of race where the outcome would be in doubt would be a 10 furlong race run with an honest pace on a dirt track. That type of race would be interesting.
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