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Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer
Yea, I'm discounting that. Papa Clem easily burst through that contact and moved up behind Regal Ransom and Join In the Dance. He didn't catch any negative effects and got exactly where he wanted to be.
MTB - some would say that had MTB not had the contact early from JITD, Borel may have had him closer - so if you believe that to be true, the contact definitely helped MTB. It certainly didn't appear to injure him, and if Borel's plan was to take back as deep as he did, it didn't hamper that plan in any real way.
There could be something to this depending on how different you think different parts of the track may have been playing. I happen to think a lot of the rail bias stuff has been much overblown.
There may have been a significant difference between the rail and outer paths, but a lot of the debate to champion that bias has not been logical. The more vocal suggestions of the bias include fallacies such as Desormeaux's middle move shooting up the rail on Hold Me Back was somehow evidence of an inside bias, or that Borel's Deep Closing Rail Run with Mine That Bird was somehow evidence of an inside bias.
I think with Musket Man or POTN if you want to credit them a little vs MTB it might make a little sense(although the purpose is probably futile because MTB was likely a 1-hit "perfect storm"), but comparing say Musket Man to Papa Clem isn't going to be that fruitful. If you think one should get a little more credit by all means...
I have not looked at the chart yet, only the headon blimp and pan replays , babe
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Papa Clem- disagree. He took a strong whack and had to rush up to get his normal position. It wasn't a killer- in fact Smarty Jones bullrushed through a similar occurance in the '04 Derby to gain his normal spot- but he ain't Smarty Jones and needed everything to go perfectly. if he doesn't get slammed, maybe he has an additional ounce of energy at the finish and gets up for 2nd.
MTB- agree. He was actually probably aided by the bump. His instructions were to be closer. But you have to at least acknowledge that he got hit if you want to discuss the nuances of the trips.
As for the rail discussion, I'm using the ancillary evidence from other races to back up my claim- the Hold Me Back argument holds no weight IMO.