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Originally Posted by Split Rock
I would say the best horse rarely wins the Derby. I can only count 8 of the last 23 Derby's were won by, arguably, the best horse. In my opinion, which can be debated, of all the Derby's I've seen:
1987: Alysheba (likely best)
1988: Winning Colors (would say Forty Niner was best)
1989: Sunday Silence (would say Easy Goer was best)
1990: Unbridled (probably best--Summer Squall was close)
1991: Strike the Gold (not the best of the weak bunch, likely Hansel)
1992: Lil E Tee (certainly not best, likely Arazi or Devil His Due)
1993: Sea Hero (weak group, likely not best, maybe Prairie Bayou or Diazo)
1994: Go For Gin (would say Holy Bull was best)
1995: Thunder Gulch (would say Tejano Run or Timber Country were best)
1996: Grindstone (Unbridled's Song was best)
1997: Silver Charm (may have been best, Pulpit was pretty solid, too)
1998: Real Quiet (would have leaned toward SA Derby winner, Indian Charlie)
1999: Charasmatic (General Challenge, maybe)
2000: Fusaichi Pegasus (best)
2001: Monarchos (Point Given best)
2002: War Emblem (likely Johannesburg or Medaglia d'Oro)
2003: Funny Cide (Empire Maker)
2004: Smarty Jones (best)
2005: Giacomo (everyone was better)
2006: Barbaro (best)
2007: Street Sense (maybe Curlin)
2008: Big Brown (likely best)
2009: Mine That Bird (hardly best, maybe worst)
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Sorry, but this is silly. Alysheba was "likely best"?! Big Brown "likely best"? Are you serious?
You can say that Easy Goer was better than Sunday Silence, but it's a silly way to argue that the best horse doesn't win the Derby. At worst they were equally talented.
Winning Colors was a better horse than Forty Niner during the Triple Crown. She beat him cleanly in the Derby, and when a frustrated Woody Stevens sent Forty Niner out to run with Winning Colors in the Preakness, which one folded first?
With Real Quiet you are dismissing the closest thing we've had to a Triple Crown winner in 30 years.
Arazi?!! Johannesburg?!! Pulpit?!! Give me a break.
From '87 through '08 I'd say 12 of the 22 races were won by the best horse, and another 3 or 4 are arguable.
--Dunbar