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Originally Posted by johnny pinwheel
you are right , there are opportunities. but they are all very unreliable because of the nature of the race. its good for odds but bad on reliability. its not a bad betting race because of the results. its a bad betting race because of the conditions. yes, its worth a shot but seriously betting serious money is out of the question. the race is more of a calvary charge than a race. horses are eliminated at the start. how do you handicap that? why should you risk money on that bumper car race when bullsbay, informed decision and einstein were such easy pickings at good prices. that was my point.
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I suppose you could argue that the track condition really affected the betting opportunities of this particular race, but I feel like people have short memories because we have had two big upsets in the last few years. The fact of the matter is that 20 horse field or not, the best horse usually wins the Derby. The fact is that you will almost always get a higher price than you would not ordinarily get on that horse save for two reasons, the size of the field and the stupid money being thrown into the pool. From a betting standpoint, this is the definition of a good betting opportunity.
The exactas, tri's, superfectas can be immense pays using logical horses, throw in a couple of longshots and you can cash a ticket the size that you could rarely get on any raceday in America. Personally I love the Derby and have had some huge returns that one just could not get in another race.