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Originally Posted by johnny pinwheel
good post, for all of its hype. the derby is probably one of the WORST betting races for a SERIOUS handicapper. especially in shaky conditions like a wet track. these horses come from all over from different preps that one has to decipher and none have been the distance. its more of a crap shoot than any major race but people are in love with it. 20 horse come charging out and some are eliminated at the start, even the logical ones. people get worked up for months over it when in actuality most years the under cards on oaks and derby day are places to make sure scores. the derby is actually "window dressing" and should be bet for fun or in pics and doubles. putting the bankroll on that race is just plain dumb.
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I disagree, generally the Derby provides excellent opportunites and excellent payouts. Often, it is the last time that you will see any value on a truly very good horse and you can make huge hits on exactas, tris and supers. Favorites tend to be overlaid in comparison to thier actual chances of winning the race. There is also more stupid money in the Derby pool than any other race in the year. Mine that Bird was an underlay at 50-1 which creates overlays on others. Just because this race was won by an incomprehensible horse does not make the Derby a bad betting race. Any race with 19 to 20 starters will offer value somewhere.
The good thing about this shocker is that it will create overlays in future years as there will be a lot of stupid money put on horses that have no chance in the next few years which will overlay the horses that actually have a real chance to win the race.