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Originally Posted by King Glorious
My concern for his physical safety came in the Lexington. Once he passed that test, I was much less concerned with him making it through the Derby.
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The Lexington was hardly a "test". Stress injuries like his are cumulative in nature, and every bout of physical exertion (whether it be a race or workout) is another check cashed from his body's account. In fact, apparently the Lexington (and the subsequent 1/2 mile workout) were enough to aggravate the injury.
While it may still have been a longshot that he'd breakdown in the race, certainly his odds of being injured was much lower than a relatively "problem free" runner.