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Originally Posted by NTamm1215
There's also a $0 ROI in the Derby on horses who made their last start on a synthetic surface in California, a $0 ROI on Todd Pletcher trainees, a $0 ROI on Jeff Mullins trainees, a $0 ROI on Larry Jones trainees and La Derby winners dating back to 1996, and a $0 ROI on Ill Derby winners since 2002.
I've now tossed Pioneerof the Nile, Chocolate Candy, Mr. Hot Stuff, Dunkirk, Advice, I Want Revenge, Friesan Fire, and Musket Man using your logic.
The Derby's a really tough race to win.
NT
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Absolutely agree with your take. You can signify a number of angles to come up with a $0 ROI in this race. It is one of the most wide-open Derby years that I can remember in my young career of betting horses.
I like hometown favorite, Win Willy (Rebel Stakes winner, 4th Arkansas Derby). He won a cheap MCL race up here at Canterbury and then shipped down to Oaklawn where he has ran very well. I wish they would have taken Berry of this mount do to his lack of experience in the big time, but Mac Robertson is a straight shooter who gives people what they earned. This horse was almost sold for $3 Million following his defeat of Old Fashioned in the Rebel and if someone thinks that highly of this one I will respect him on Saturday. His breeding is okay (Monarchos by a Carson City mare).
He is a big time closer and if he can get the pace to run at, you never know... Look back at some of his races, he hasn't had the best trip in any of them and has ran pretty well up to this race. Odds are he won't get a perfect trip in this race wither with 19 other horses to contend with.
I just really have a feeling the pace scenario is going cause the front runners to break down as they hit the top of the stretch opening the door for an off the pace closer like Win Willy. Could be Dunkirk, Could be Flying Private.
Right now my most realistic candidate would be Dunkirk, but I am always a homer so I will use him and Win Willy to hit the board in all my supers. If I can get that to happen it could be a very big day.
Everyone throwing out the Dubai horses just because of where they prepped are not looking close enough. I would be more worried with the horses with the majority of their earnings over synthetic as tosses. It has been the case over the past decade with the California shippers. Now with Kentucky switching two courses over to Poly it allows you to limit your options even more.
Who knows, I contradict myself every 10 minutes when I look at the entrants. I will bet Dunkirk and Win Willy and hope lightning strikes.
Best of luck to everyone