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Originally Posted by King Glorious
If you are putting your money into anything, I would suppose that due dilligence would be in order. In that light, I understand your analogy. However, if they announced that they are going bankrupt, you know for sure that the stock is worthless. It's not a maybe/maybe not situation. In racing, you'd like to assume that what they said was true, that if he wasn't 100%, they wouldn't run him. So you'd hope that him being in the race would be a sign that he's 100%. Now, of course that is no guarantee that he'd win the race. You know going in that it's a gamble. The situation you described isn't a gamble. It's one with a known outcome.
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You had it right before you continued on. The more due dilligence you do, the better chance you have to win. If some schmuck goes in there on the biggest day of the year, in which ALL information is known, and didn't know say Quality Road was running with a bar shoe when it was plastered all over the newspapers, I plan on taking their money. End of story.