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Originally Posted by Dunbar
I don't have to feel strongly about a horse's chance to win when I bet it at 10-1. I just have to feel that the horse has more than a 9% chance to win the race. Similarly, I don't have to feel strongly about an 8-1's chance to win.
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In practice it's hard to distinguish between likelihoods of 9% and 11% (10-1 and 8-1 respectively). That is more precision than I can handicap with. But that said I agree with you.
And I've seen many exactas were the "will pay" with horses in this range is just too low to justify the wager.
Let's say that both horses are 50% under priced in the win pool, and both have an equal chance of finishing second, the combined percentage is about 2.3% fair odds and you need to box it if you do not have an opinion which one is more likely to win. So you need something like a $100 exacta probable (one dollar basis) in order to justify.