[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

Souped-up track does not necessarily equate to speed bias, and Gulfstream Park on Fla. Derby day was a chalk-fest, which makes the debate even more uncertain.

To me the bottom line with this Dunkirk vs. Quality Road stuff is whether or not as a handicapper you think Quality Road can do what he did in the FOY/Fla Derby at CD going 10 furlongs with some additional pace pressers to put away late in the race. Provided QR runs his race, he will be on the lead and/or close. Then you have to ask whether or not Dunkirk, or anyone else, can outrun him late to the wire.

My thoughts on that argument:

* Right now, the pace does not look too brutal. QR probably is on the lead or coasting just off it. He will likely sit his trip. I do, however, question if he might get a little bit weak late in the race. Though he finished-up in the Florida Derby, I don't think he finished-up super strong as to where no one could catch him late going another furlong.

* Dunkirk ran a big race, going wide at GP is never easy, closing at GP is never easy. But he had a fair chance to run by QR and didn't. I think, at 8-1, he's a big-time bet against when you add up all the variables against him. At this point, I Want Revenge is a more plausible horse to run down Quality Road late than Dunkirk and scary enough, they might not be that far off in price.

i thought i read his final fractions were very good? or i might be confusing his last with i want revenge. like drugs, i think these two are the top two.

and i agree with your last paragraph.