Quote:
|
Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
A lot of things seem obvious after the fact.
Theregoesjojo had just beaten Quality Road by 2 3/4 lengths .. and the hot pace of the race projected much better for him than QR ... yet the two horses were almost the same price.
He was no bargain at 5/1 on paper. He should have been a bigger price in fact.
|
The money in the pools is not an equal representation of public opinion. In reality a minority controls the pools with their larger wagers.
"He should have been a bigger price" - yea according to public opinion he should have been 8-1 , after the good players bet he was 5-1.
I bet 200 each on Phil and JOJO, but I can see after the fact that I screwed up. Evaluating your own past performance isn't about whether you win or lose(in the short term), and it isn't about what Joe-Public "should have" thought at the time of the race.