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Originally Posted by brockguy
I was going to make a topic of Muhannak's odds in the HK Vase. I was thinking that it was / is extremely rare for a Breeders Cup winner to go off at really high odds on their first start after the BC(he is 7-1 with Bookies here, but Im sure he will be at least 16-1 in HK!) but as I was about to post, I realised that Nownownow was 25-1 on his first start after winning the Juvi Turf last year...
Anyway, the bomb of the meeting could well be Poseidon Adventure who will probably be 50-1+ and will be placed :-)
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I remember him... liked him quite a while ago but no not seeing that.
Good luck though and am usually wrong, so.....
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From our good friends at the HKJC...
Wednesday trackwork notes.
Lush Lashes eased up the turf track at Sha Tin today and left Sunday's rider Kevin Manning more than happy with the wellbeing of Ireland's best three-year-old filly, who attempts to give her trainer Jim Bolger a second Cathay Pacific Hong Kong Cup victory following Alexander Goldrun's thrilling win in 2004.
Having completed the last 400 metres in an effortless 24.4 sec, Manning said: "She went through her paces nicely. One of her strong points is that she's very straightforward and can be ridden any way. We can have her handy or slot her in behind.
"She has travelled over very well and she hasn't lost any weight. She has a very strong constitution and you wouldn't know she's been on the go for most of the year."
Even though Bolger puts Lush Lashes in the same category as Alexander Goldrun, Manning did not want to be drawn into make comparisons between them and was more interested in contemplating Sunday's dangers. "Viva Pataca looks like the one we've got to beat," he said.
As a three-year-old filly, Lush Lashes will receive between 4lbs and 7lbs from the rest of the field on her first test against male rivals.
The Australian international contenders Apache Cat and Douro Valley continue to please in their preparations with both horses in great shape and taking the eye of most observers.
Leading Cathay Pacific Hong Kong Sprint contender Apache Cat had a "three-quarter spin" on the course proper with regular track rider Danielle Ellett reporting that the gelding felt "sensational' after his 800m workout.
Apache Cat zipped home his last 400m in 22.0 sec despite appearing to be unextended. Ellett has ridden the horse throughout his career and was enthusiastic about how well he's done in Hong Kong.
"He really does feel great. He's very laid-back, very relaxed and takes everything in his stride. It doesn't matter to him whether he's going left handed or right handed and the change of environment hasn't bothered him," she said.
Apache Cat's trainer Greg Eurell was also satisfied with what he saw this morning.
"I'm very pleased with him. He's a horse who enjoys his work, did it pretty comfortably this morning and everything has gone as well as we could hope for," he said.
Cathay Pacific Hong Kong Vase hopeful Douro Valley looked a picture of health after an easy morning's stretch on the all-weather track. "He's super, really good," was the succinct appraisal of Paul Koumis, who has been looking after the Danny O'Brien trained gelding in Hong Kong.
Andrew Balding was at Sha Tin for a first look at his Cathay Pacific Hong Kong Vase chance Buccellati this morning, and was happy with what he saw.
"He has travelled well and settled in here, that's the main thing," said Balding.
"He's won three of his last four starts and is on the upgrade, but this is a step up again for him. Frankly he'll need to improve again against horses of the calibre of last year's winner Doctor Dino, who I thought looked fabulous this morning on the track. But Buccellati is tough and has a big heart. I'll be very happy if he runs in the first four."
Luca Cumani's stayer Purple Moon looked a picture as he glistened in the bright sunshine and seems to have put a disappointing trip to the Japan Cup behind him.
Purple Moon finished ninth two weeks ago in Tokyo but Cumani's travelling head lad, Ian Willows, is confident of a better performance in the Vase this Sunday.
"He seems far happier here than he was in Japan. He is really taking everything in and he walked around the paddock during his parade ring trial as if he owned the place. He is a social animal who loves to have others around him. He was very much on his own in Tokyo and I don't think he really enjoyed it," Willows said.
"I see no reason why he cannot run a huge race on Sunday, but the big proviso is that there needs to be an end to end gallop."
The pace of this year's Vase may well be stronger than previous editions. Douro Valley is a noted for his pacesetting style and Mourilyan is expect to race more prominently with Herman Brown applying blinkers for the first time.
Another source of pace lies closer to home and that's Packing Winner. Conqueror of Viva Pataca in the Citi Champions & Chater Cup late last term, Packing Winner satisfactorily breezed 1200m on the dirt under jockey Douglas Whyte with the final split in 23.3 seconds.
Trainer Peter Ho who watched the gallop was pleased with his horse's condition and believes he has a chance of figuring in the money on Sunday.
"His first up run was delayed but he wasn't beaten all that far when he was only at about 60 per cent in the Cup Trial and now he's much better off," Ho said.
"Starting the season at 2000m and then going up to 2400m is a challenge, but I think he will either lead or sit in second if the Australian horse [Douro Valley] wants to take it up and he'll be staying on at the finish."
Japan has been the only country to break the British-French hegemony in the Vase over the past decade and it appears Jaguar Mail is quietly fancied to emulate Stay Gold's win in 2001.
The four-year-old son of Jungle Pocket had a gentle outing on all-weather track under his regular partner, jockey Shu Ishibashi, who later said: "I gave him a light canter just to loosen him up on all-weather track this morning. I cannot find anything negative about my horse. I think he has enjoyed a good spell here in Hong Kong and is in a good mood. His trainer [Noriyuki Hori] will arrive tomorrow and Jaguar Mail will gallop on the turf on Friday."
Paul Rutter, travelling head lad for trainer Michael Jarvis, who saddles the highly regarded Pressing in the Cathay Pacific Hong Kong Mile, was another happy with the condition of his charge.
"He just cantered six furlongs this morning, but he seems very well," Rutter said of the son of Soviet Star.
"He's been very impressive in his last two starts, and although it might be a strange thing to say of a horse of his age, it may be that he's still improving. He's matured and filled out, and I think that a mile is his best trip, although he's won over further. This is his time of year, he travels well in his races and has a finishing kick and this ground will suit so I sense he'll run a big race on Sunday," came Rutter's upbeat assessment.
Last out on the turf track on Wednesday morning was another fancied contender in the Mile, the American trained Breeders' Cup Mile winner of 2007 - Kip Deville. The striking grey had a leisurely gallop on the turf for exercise rider Michelle Nevin, Kip Deville will be racing on a right handed track for the first time on Sunday, something that will be, according to Nevin: "no problem at all".
French trainer Jean-Marie Beguigne travelled to Hong Kong last year with Spirito Del Vento in the Mile and went home after never-nearer sixth place wondering what might have been with a kinder draw than barrier 13.
"He had to be ridden back and wide a year ago so I hope he can be closer to the rails and the pace this year with gate that is more inside.
"He is just as good this year, if not a little better, so I think he can improve on last year's position," said Beguigne, "and he will not have any problem with the ground - fast or heavy, it's the same for him."
After watching Mile candidate Major Cadeaux breeze on the all-weather, Richard Hannon Jnr, assistant trainer of the British raider said:
"He lost a little weight when he arrived but he's put that back on and we are very happy with him. Many people back home think he wants soft ground - that's a fallacy - in fact I don't think he really liked the soft conditions at Deauville when he was third in the Group One Prix Jacques le Marois. We won't be using the ground as an excuse on Sunday."
"We plan to do some faster work on Friday when Richard Hughes will be here to ride. It's not going to be easy on Sunday but what do you expect with HK$16 million at stake?"
Jockey Yusuke Fujioka, who has the ride on Japan's Mile contender Super Hornet was also at the track this morning to watch his horse put in some fast work on the turf track under his exercise rider Koji Kubo.
"He has lost weight travelling in the past and not eaten up well after long distant trips, but this time he did not lose a lot, and looks in much better form than I expected. He put in an impressive canter today. I am really excited about Sunday's meeting," said Fujioka.
Japanese trainer Mitsugu Kon, at the end of his best season ever with the top three-year-old colt Deep Sky, winner of the NHK Mile and the Japanese Derby, was at Sha Tin to observe his Cathay Pacific Hong Kong Sprint player Laurel Guerreiro blaze on the turf in a final fraction of 21.4 sec.
Kon was very pleased with the gallop and said: "He looks in top form and galloped very powerfully. He hasn't lost any weight travelling here and he is also eating up well so we are very happy."
Also representing Japan in the Sprint, Tosho Courage looked in top form as he galloped under jockey Kenichi Ikezoe on all-weather track.
"He lost a bit of weight when he underwent the export quarantine routine at Ritto [Training Centre]. However his condition is getting better and he is eating all he is given and he's nearly back to his normal weight," said his work rider Masakazu Sakai.