07-26-2008, 01:19 PM
|
 |
The Curragh
|
|
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 2,962
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by SentToStud
If Commentator was 20-1 in here, I'd bet every dollar I could afford to bet on him to win.
He's obviously an exciting, fast horse but he's got his share of physical problems and he hasn't won going 2-turns or over a mile in three years. So, I will bet against every horse I see that fits this profile, especially at a short number.
And while he ran great in the Met, if the race had been an eighth longer, he quite possible have got beaten for 2nd by Lord Snowden.
To me, I'll bet the race because it has two horses I feel strongly about. Notional, who I expect a big race out of and Commentator, who I think is likely not to run 1-2. To me, the real money in the race is in the exacta.
I would place Commentator's chances of running 1-2 in here at about 40% and his chance of winning at about 25%.
|
(emphasis added)
Very sharp stuff, STS.
--Dunbar
__________________
Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar
photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson
|