[philcski]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

BB's figures are lacking almost as much as his quality of opposition is.

However, he hasn't had anything close to the kind of trip or circumstances that leads to a big figure.

* In his return at GP, from a long layoff, off of just two works, he got mixed up in a pace battle with a couple of speedy horses and won stylishly anyway - his pace rivals were a badly fractured last and 2nd to last as the 2nd and 3rd choices in the betting.

* In the Florida Derby he was marooned out in post 12 at GP. He was wisely ridden hard out of the gate - but was still caught wide enough on the first turn.

* In the Kentucky Derby he broke from post 20 and won despite being hung wide throughout. Showing the ability to rate kind and finish strong at a Classic distance

* In the Preakness, the two pacesetters tried to box him in and race ride. With the bullseye on him, he had to rate his way off the inside and out into the clear. The two pacesetters finished 11th and 12th in a field of 12 - more than 7 lengths behind the 10th place finisher. The pace was decent and he fractured his pace companions with his move.

If you look at the big figures this year - they are a 119 by Commentator and a 118 by Monetarry Jazz. Both came when allowed to crawl on uncontested leads, through absurdly slow 1st quarters, at a middle distance, in races TOTALLY lacking speed.

I believe that BB's best distance is a middle distance. He's just winning these races at Classic distances because he's overwhelmingly superior to the bums he's facing.

He's certainly a better horse than Hard Spun, Street Sense, and Any Given Saturday. Through five career races - I'd also give him a slim edge over Curlin.

Even though I'm certain we haven't seen Big Brown's good race yet - and we won't see it in the Belmont - his numbers aren't much - and if a forgotten type horse like a Captain Bodgit would have been in the '08 Preakness instead of the '97 Preakness he would have been defeated for sure.

Couldn't agree more with your trip analysis.

Tough to compare him with Hard Spun, Street Sense, & Curlin at this point in his career (he's definitely better than Any Given Saturday however). I'd put him ahead of all three, but not by the margins you seem to be thinking.