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Originally Posted by DogsUp
Like some posters, I also believe that something is amiss with Big Brown for the Preakness. The connections do not feel as confident this week as they did two weeks ago. If this is the case, what bet do you make if you leave Big Brown out of the winner's spot? I am finding this race difficult to handicap when I leave Big Brown out of the picture. I already have my bet which includes Big Brown in the winner's spot (just in case my gut is wrong). However, can anyone give an opinion on how this race shapes up if Big Brown doesn't run his race?
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If Big Brown doesn't run his race, he has a pretty good shot to win here. It really isn't a good horse to play against unless you know something others don't.
If something really goes completely wrong and he doesn't factor:
Hey Byrn = He isn't supposed to have the female pedigree stamina to be top class beyond about a mile and a sixteenth. His 9f GP and his 9.5Gp were PROBABLY products of having a slow pace. When you get that slow pace, the stamina matters less and it can hide poor stamina.
However he has talent. He did win that mile race with the good pace. The two best animals other than Brown are maybe Hey Byrn and Kentucky Bear. Kentucky Bear would have to sustain a tough, long drive and is more one-paced. Byrn has done enough, that if he ran a huge race, it wouldn't completely shock you.