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Originally Posted by MISTERGEE
but if they didnt pick him at 5-2 in the derby, they should keep picking against him at 1-2 in the preakness I would think. if they are picking for value and not just to get a winner as im guessing only 3-20 picked in the derby but 18-20 in the preakness
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It is not just value, there were other horses in the derby viewed as viable contenders that offered a more attractive price. You could have made a case for up to probably 5-8 different horses depending on the pace scenario in the derby. In the preakness there is no other horse in the race that is competitive with BB. Gayego who finished 17th in the derby is 8/1 and second choice on the morning line. Can you make a case for any horse to beat BB in the preakness? the answer is no. Could you make a case that numerous horses had just as good if not a better shot to win the derby considering all the factors other than BB? yes. There is value betting a horse at 8/1 who has just as good a chance to win as there is betting the 5/2 fav. BB defied odds and ran a great race, but most people will tell you that they would bet against him again in similar race with similar competitors. there is no value in betting BB in the Preakness, but there is really less value if you think no one has a shot to even be within 10 lengths of him to bet someone else.