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Originally Posted by philcski
You've been watching this game at an expert level for a long time... you've never seen a 2yo/3yo explode 10 lengths faster? Happens all the time.
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Yes - often with a trainer change and a layoff - and not always repeted in subsquent races. which is why I used Cantrel as an example. The layoff - trainer change combo didn't happen in Eight Belles case.
Anyone who doesn't think she made a monster improvment in the race she won by 15 lengths, while not favored in the betting, with a conservative 100 Beyer .. I just don't know.
I'm not saying every horse who makes a mind-boggling form reversal, and proceeds to repeat the race over and over, ends up breaking down on the track. They don't. The vast majority of them disappear though.
Alina, who was 2nd to Eight Belles in the Fantasy, is an example of a dramatic form reversal by a horse at a top level who hasn't yet tailed off. She fits the traditional mode of trainer change plus layoff .. Eight Belles doesn't.
Bruce L Jackson trained In Excess, who was one of the better horses I've ever seen in my life - before anyone accuses him of being "a bum" like they did with Pino, who consistantly wins at about a 20% clip.
