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Originally Posted by philcski
You've been watching this game at an expert level for a long time... you've never seen a 2yo/3yo explode 10 lengths faster? Happens all the time. I don't know the intracacies of her trips prior to the N2L win, or whether the Beyer figures are at all accurate for any of those races... what if the prior two races were adjusted down 5-6 points? Then we're talking a 7 length improvement (i.e., just over 1 second)- how is that unbelievable? Making my own figures for all these years, I've learned that figures, especially for young horses, don't tell the whole story.
In her tragic case... never and nowhere is probably right. I don't have an issue, ever, with retrospective analysis of form as it's a great learning experience, but I just don't get your comparison to this obvious Scott Lake special.
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Yeah, that was my first thought. She won her maiden by 10. Did anyone do their own figures that day to determine whether she might have run in the high 80s and they split it out because the number was too hard to believe?