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Originally Posted by CSC
Interesting stuff, however I don't think it is an isolated case. I wonder if someone can pull up Charismatic's form page. I remember his form improved after the Lexington after a cluster of mediocre races. Wonder what Lukas did there if anything to change this guy's form.
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Charismatic didn't have one gigantic leap like Eight Belles - but he had two very significant spikes in his form.
You notice the 9 point move up (above his prior top) after he was 2nd in the claiming race - but the scary leap was the 13 point move up (above his prior top) between April 3rd and April 18th.
In the Lexington, which was his 14th career start, Charismatic improved 8.5 lengths over his career best race on figures. He held that form though the entire triple crown series before breaking down after the wire in the Belmont.
I'm always a little suspicous when I see those huge unexpected and unexplainable spikes in form - though the vast majority of them come in situations like with Cantrel (off a layoff and for a new trainer) .. the type of form of a Charismatic and Eight Belles is extremely rare. Huge improvements on firmly established form, while going for the same trainer, without much rest between starts on move-up day.