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Originally Posted by tiggerv
How much stock are you guys really putting into these workouts? I understand wanting to see a workout for a first time starter to determine if the horse has any talent or to check the fitness of a horse off a long layoff. What I don't get is the importance of 1 workout for a Derby horse that has proven race form. I mean even Hacker Craft apparently can put in a good workout. It doesn't mean I am going to bet him or claim him (sorry Chuck). Am I supposed to jump on the Court Vision bandwagon because he can work a 46 even though his proven race form says otherwise? Even a horse like Colonel John who has never run on dirt...how much is a 3F breeze going to tell you? I guarantee that there will be a lot of jockey and trainer speak about how much he loved the surface no matter what he does. I have never heard a trainer say a horse has been working like crap before a race.
Someone school me on how you are interpreting this data because I won't even look at it.
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I used to feel the same way but the past few years the reports on the works for the Derby and BC have beed dead on as the horses looking good have run well and the few that actually drew negative attention ran poorly. I, of course, ignored that info and left horses like Bluegrass Cat off my ticket and only played Barbaro underneath. I'm going to be paying a lot more attention this year especially in the case of a Colonel John who's never run on dirt. Never listen to what the trainers have to say, they are of course going to tell you that everything went perfect. But there are a lot of people out there who do know exactly what to look for and getting their input can be important. It's only a piece of the puzzle but it is one that shouldn't be completely ignored.