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Originally Posted by tiggerv
How much stock are you guys really putting into these workouts? I understand wanting to see a workout for a first time starter to determine if the horse has any talent or to check the fitness of a horse off a long layoff. What I don't get is the importance of 1 workout for a Derby horse that has proven race form. I mean even Hacker Craft apparently can put in a good workout. It doesn't mean I am going to bet him or claim him (sorry Chuck). Am I supposed to jump on the Court Vision bandwagon because he can work a 46 even though his proven race form says otherwise? Even a horse like Colonel John who has never run on dirt...how much is a 3F breeze going to tell you? I guarantee that there will be a lot of jockey and trainer speak about how much he loved the surface no matter what he does. I have never heard a trainer say a horse has been working like crap before a race.
Someone school me on how you are interpreting this data because I won't even look at it.
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The workouts and physical appearance of Derby starters on THIS track should be of great interest. In the last couple of years they pointed out impending big efforts from Street Sense, Barbaro and Bluegrass Cat, as well as poor efforts from any number of runners. Read Mike Welsch's and Steve Haskin's workout reports for some clues as to how the runners are getting over the track and looking generally. I also expect to have several top dawn patrol types on ATR next week.
I can tell you specifically that Bluegrass Cat, whom I hated, blossomed as Derby Week progressed two years ago, his coat going from dull and lifeless the weekend before to glistening by Thursday. I ignored it, though Haskin kept telling me he was coming in right, and it cost me the all the exotics as I had included Barbaro, Jazil and Steppenwolfer but excluded BluCat.
You're looking for horses that are showing signs of being at the peak of fitness... and that is something that needs to be observed. Since many can't view it, relying on people like Gary Young, Welsch and Haskin as your eyes certainly doesn't hurt.